Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I normally have this attitude. But some retracement 1) will let far more people who are worried that they missed the boat get back in, and 2) once it settles, comfort people who were worried about an unsustainable bubble (e.g., taking some heat off). If the stock never drops at all, people worry that it's going to explode downward.

In a flatlining or declining SP environment, I would share your concern. But not in the current environment. I mean, premarket is down to the terrible lows of... (checks the graph).... Monday morning.

The problem with that is that not everyone thinks like you. Not a lot of everyone thinks like you.

 

[Vines]

I have every belief in the long term success of this company. Keeping my big boy pants on and enjoying the ride.

 

[Singuy]

Guess buyers are telling Jonas to go F himself with his nonsense word salad.

 

[Bunky]

MMD may have been pre-market today. I gladly obliged. And the beat goes on...

 

[gene]

MMD may have been pre-market today. I gladly obliged. And the beat goes on...

This is exactly my thought as well.

 

[Don TLR]

The under 500 sale pricing was too hard to resist so I picked up 4 more,, small time accumulator..

 

[Prunesquallor]

Volkswagen Will Be World's Largest EV Manufacturer By 2030, Claims New Report | CleanTechnica
...

They should have all the software loaded by then.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Expectation for ER Date:
Last year, the 2018 Q4 earnings were released on Jan 30 and the 10K issued on Feb 19.
I expect this 2019 Q4 earnings to be on Wednesday Jan 29th perhaps a day or two later.

I`ve checked this a few weeks ago: in the past year Tesla has published the ER date 12-14 days ahead.

 

[flabellina]

I have every belief in the long term success of this company. Keeping my big boy pants on and enjoying the ride.

Since Tesla I've: stopped watching sports. Lowered my consideration of the press. Learned the value of long term thinking.
Buckle up! Entertainment is assured.

 

[JRP3]

Meanwhile I'm guessing ARK loaded up on TSLA shares at the open..

I'd think TSLA is still more than 10% of their holdings so they can't.

 

[Rb48888]

Picked up a few more shares and sold my first put. Thanks all for the insight and ideas.

 

[gerebgraus]

The Financial Times is reporting that California sales dropped 46.5% in the 4th quarter. Interesting.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01...t-s-enthusiastic-EV-predictions-don-t-add-up/

Meanwhile I'm guessing ARK loaded up on TSLA shares at the open..

I will nominate the author the Anton Wahlman prize. Anton Wahlman has apparently been kicked out of the security industry after this behavior that some people would describe as less than kosher: http://www.whafh.com/modules/case/docs/2972_cid_3_interspeed settlement.PDF
Now he writes regular articles when Tesla has record sales pointing out that in some markets Tesla sales went down, (and there are always markets like that, especially after expiration of subsidies.) He also implies that this is the end of Tesla. We can all decide for ourselves whether we extrapolate from total data, or from the worse performing location. (Now of course studying sales in geographic details is interesting for deeper analysis. But doing deeper analysis would exclude you from nomination to the Anton Wahlman prize.)

 

[steak&chicken]

Didn't Adam Jonas put out research note right after Christmas during thin trading holiday week trying to push down Tesla stock? Or was it some other analyst? I remember Tesla had passed the important $420 price and was trading around $434 when one or two negative analyst reports came out that pushed TSLA price all the way back down to $401 before it took off like rocket ship again to $500. We might be seeing something similar this time with stock price pushed down from $535 down to $500 range before it takes like spaceship to $600.

 

[EVMeister]

Didn't Adam Jonas put out research note right after Christmas during thin trading holiday week trying to push down Tesla stock? Or was it some other analyst? I remember Tesla had passed the important $420 price and was trading around $434 when one or two negative analyst reports came out that pushed TSLA price all the way back down to $401 before it took off like rocket ship again to $500. We might be seeing something similar this time with stock price pushed down from $535 down to $500 range before it takes like spaceship to $600.

Yes. It was actually on Christmas Eve and was neutralised during the trading day. He's a true clown. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Tslynk67]

So just sell enough shares to buy those LEAPS, no?

For a taxed account, be sure to sell older shares that you bought cheaper than you sell for (remember to assign by ID!) - and for a taxed account hold them for at least a year so it's taxed at capital gains rate.... Isn't that the way it works?

Please correct me out if I am wrong about any of this?? Much appreciated!

Well I bought them yesterday for $520, so I'd feel stupid selling them today, although if there are bargains to be had in calls then I take the point.

One good news is that there's no capital gains on shares in Belgium, at least not on personal trades. This is my company account though and that does mean that profits attract are treated as taxable income, but it's only 10%, so no big deal.

 

[LJS22]

Didn't Adam Jonas put out research note right after Christmas during thin trading holiday week trying to push down Tesla stock? Or was it some other analyst? I remember Tesla had passed the important $420 price and was trading around $434 when one or two negative analyst reports came out that pushed TSLA price all the way back down to $401 before it took off like rocket ship again to $500. We might be seeing something similar this time with stock price pushed down from $535 down to $500 range before it takes like spaceship to $600.

Road to $600 seems plausible with new short interest.
Earnings beat plus weak shorts covering is easy money,
Elon announcing bullish expectations for 2020 guidance
Model Y deliveries begin in May
Semi production beginning in second half
Roadster production going up simultaneously
Give me some China numbers+S&P500 inclusion and This gets me excited.

 

[KarenRei]

Nice!

Tesla May Be Only Big Winner in U.S. Batteries Bound for China

"As part of the accord signed Wednesday, China will import more energy storage systems and parts from the U.S. this year and next. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada is by far the largest battery plant in the U.S., representing 42% of nationwide production, according to data from BloombergNEF. No other manufacturer in America comes close to its capacity"

Of course, the market thinks Tesla Energy is worth zero Never bloody mention it. Even when bulls mention it, they usually forget about storage and only think of solar.

 

[Drax7]

Indeed. How can someone be upset with a dip after making so much money on this rise? Boggles the mind. Unless one is a day trader and has no actual belief in the long-term success of the company, at least.

Lovely and keep it to yourself.

 

[FrankSG]

Didn't Adam Jonas put out research note right after Christmas during thin trading holiday week trying to push down Tesla stock? Or was it some other analyst? I remember Tesla had passed the important $420 price and was trading around $434 when one or two negative analyst reports came out that pushed TSLA price all the way back down to $401 before it took off like rocket ship again to $500. We might be seeing something similar this time with stock price pushed down from $535 down to $500 range before it takes like spaceship to $600.

 

[cricketman]

Wow. Did you read what you wrote? Did you even give it a thorough once over in your head? Let me rephrase it for you;

I’d much rather pay way more money for something because it makes me more confident there’s less chance of bankruptcy for whomever, despite the fact I’ve now gotten way less for that money.

I have to assume with that thought process that you pass up on all sales of all items you want to purchase, and that when you drove an ICE vehicle you went hunting for the highest priced gasoline/diesel.

Of course you didn’t do that! Because that would have been, at best, silly. Except...

See, I was more right than I intended to be when I said the brain trick ****s you when it doesn’t have enough time to process. And some of us aren’t fully upgraded and need more processing time than others.

I don't think its silly at all. Let me paint a picture for you...

6 months ago, I had 1,300 TSLA shares, roughly around 90% of all liquid capital I have (net worth if you like). I kept roughly another $100k in other shares and $100k in cash. When TSLA share price dropped from $350 to $183 early this year, I was still very confident in TSLA, for that reason I did not sell any shares, but I didn't want to go absolutely all in because then I would be left with nothing if it did crash and there was a small but real chance (maybe 10-20% chance I calculated, even Elon said they were "very close" when they couldn't get Model 3 ramping).

I have a small family, just turned 40 etc. I am playing a long game with TSLA, I don't want to sell any at all...at least not until $3,000 per share, so whether I buy the shares at $180 or $500 doesnt matter that much long term. Since the share price has been increasing again, I have bought another 300 sahres all the way up to $540, trying to take advantages of MMDs and small rebounds along the way.

I still want another 200 shares to get to a 0.001% share holding of the company then I will stop and hold long term. That will be family's legacy for the next 40 years!