Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Zach Shahan points to this 2010 article:

Volkswagen Plans to Sell 300,000 Electric Cars a Year by 2018

In 2010 VW was going to be the largest EV seller in 2018.

VW is working on a time machine now so they can go back and slaughter sales. Adam Jonas will value VW at $20 trillion for this new time machine on track for an unveil in year 2050.

 

[avoigt]

Also, despite Taycans apparently coming with 3 years free charging at Porsche dealerships (? I think?) - even if so, I can imagine most stops there to hope to charge will be met with no-go; dealership cars will be hooked up "Sorry you'll have to wait" or they'll have like a 911 or Cayenne parked in the spot and by the time they move it for you, it's 20 mins later...

Not the case in Europe as far as I know but interesting they do that in the US.

Ionity should have build like a cost center not as a profit center because the result is that they try to reduce costs which is negative for maintenance and service - one reason why many of this stalls do not work. I did hear that too often now. Secondly because they are not reliable people will relaliz that bad efficiency and not reliable fast chargers that are not even show up in your navigation system create a lot of range anxiety.

Porsche driver many not care about 140% price increase although... I have been one before and I would but Audi eTron and other will very well care and consider twice.

Since BMW, Daimler, Porsche have founded and own Ionity I ask myself it that price increase is intentional to temper BEV demand.

Regardless how I look at it its really a bad move from Ionity.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To settle at $500 this week is amazing. Shorts haven't covered, so that wasn't even a squeeze. The first 10% of institutional money wanted to come in and NO ONE was selling. Hence the run up.

We're going to be volatile as always, but 2020 should be nothing to worry about for TSLA investors relative to the last 7 years. We have 3 or 4 huge bullets left for this year and none of them even require additional effort it luck from Tesla.

If there was ever a time to sit back and enjoy, this is it. A little relaxation time before the Energy battle begins.

Set some buy orders for $325, sell orders for $3-5k and walk away for a while.

 

[guidooo]

Also, despite Taycans apparently coming with 3 years free charging at Porsche dealerships (? I think?) - even if so, I can imagine most stops there to hope to charge will be met with no-go; dealership cars will be hooked up "Sorry you'll have to wait" or they'll have like a 911 or Cayenne parked in the spot and by the time they move it for you, it's 20 mins later...

Stated in the article is that different customers might end up paying different prices. So i'm assuming that it could be cheaper to find ways for charging a Porsche or VW at Ionity then a Tesla or MG, while they also might offer subscription based service, like Fastned does (didn't read about that).

Excerpt translated by google:

"As of January 31, we will switch to a fair and transparent pricing model across Europe in our High Power Charging network. Connected mobility service providers offer attractive offers for their customers and the direct customer without a contract no longer pays a flat rate, but simply 79 euro cents per kilowatt hour of electricity."

"Es war Zeit, den nächsten Preis-Schritt zu gehen."

With VW stating that a transition to electric mobility shouldn't go too fast, Ionity price changes don't come as a surprise to me. Lucky for all and the global climate VW and Ionity aren't the only one in town.

 

[jerry33]

While happy for Tesla in comparison, this is actually quite sad. This will only slow EV take-up, since Tesla is already tapped out on their production.

This was unlikely to play out any other way due to the real technological lead Tesla has.

 

[ZeApelido]

I see you don't visit the Midwest often.

Central Valley CA is a hot spot for meth use. High probability some low-life journalist will someday intimate the Tesla Lathrop facility is involved in meth somehow.

 

[fdutra1]

Firs time in my life exercised option. Call 295 for tomorrow

Congrats ! Well played.

 

[neezer]

Oh, sorry, it's 3 years free at EA for Taycans ... not Porsche dealers (which are actually free permanently, if they are officially "Porsche destination chargers" which I assume are purely at dealerships):

See the "Charging Map" paragraph: https://www.porsche.com/international/aboutporsche/e-performance/charging-on-the-road/
"and shows you all of the cost-free Porsche Destination Charging points"

Notice that's the INTL link.

as for EA, this is a year old info ... Porsche Taycan owners will get three years of free charging

Limit is 30 mins.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.

TeslaStars on Twitter

A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 ($81) to go 200km (124 miles).

The thing that I find really frustrating about this is that it will sour folks who don't know better on EVs in general, including Tesla. I was talking to a couple of people yesterday about Tesla and some of the downside impressions they had about the cars were due to their experiences with other EVs (or they were just flat-out inaccurate) -- range, charging speed, etc.

 

[jerry33]

Wow, 88 cents? Must be a lot of tax in there? Or they're trying to get a ludicrous ROI from infrastructure? Ya, stupid move for them, makes that table of "Overall Cost of Ownership" with Tesla look great!

For comparison, I'm charging at home rates best in the country... $0.0575/kWh (SRP in Az). There is a monthly $23 fee for having a service, but still. (I think they expect me to give power back... so far not happening with PWs.)

$0.88 isn't so bad. At my former employer ChargePoint charged $0.61/kWh. Home rate is $0.072. (not that I was ever tempted to sign up to be able to charge at work).

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you have 100s of shares you can consider selling a call option during run-ups, for a strike price you'd sell for anyway. Worst-case you'll get exercised at that price, and can keep the premium too - which increases your take-profit price substantially.

If the stock ends up dropping 5-10% you can buy back the call option at ~half the price.

Thanks, but sounds like a starter drug... I think the operative word in there is "during run-ups".

A couple years back, I did an option on Tesla (and I think SunPower) - they both zero'd out. My brother then lost all his money on TSLA options. His lesson was alway... "It's just really hard to time" even though we both knew it was destined for $600 soon. He's coming back up again on this latest pump - a real fighter!

 

[UncaNed]

Stock market is by far the largest casino in the world, leveraged online gambling is legal (stock and option trading). It's natural for large players to do all sorts of things for their own advantage, including illegal activities as long as they can get away with it.

For example, recently lots of buyers saw their TSLA call options went up 10 fold, 20 fold, 50 fold. Think about those who sold the Calls. They are on the hook to lose billions. A few days ago I was thinking with so many Calls expiring on Jan 17th, Call sellers will desperately push down the stock before expiration. I was waiting to see who will show their hands.

First, Dominion Cross-Sell report says CA Q4 registration is down almost 50%. That alone is just a piece of data, nothing wrong, but the manipulation is in the details. They made it sound like sales is down half. Then Morgan Stanley came out with this downgrade. If GS sold those Calls, they would issue a downgrade too.

People may ask, it's a free market, everyone can say whatever they want. I normally support that view. The problem is some players have so much power they can manipulate the market for their own advantage. It's not a level playing field for retail gamblers. I don't hold weekly options, but think about those who get hurt by the manipulation.

What time do they expire on the 17th?

Will there likely be more downward pressure at any time in particular between now and then?

 

[ggr]

The way I look at it is TSLA stock price was slowly headed to $500 today or tomorrow regardless if Adam Jonas issued his downgrade or not. His report and downgrade just sped up the time and the recovery process. Now we can consolidate at $500 and start our push to $600 sooner. I bought 2 more Feb 21 $500 calls at $40 this morning.

BTW, I have Jan 17 $350 call I bought after the Cybertruck dip that's expiring tomorrow. If I want to exercise the call, do I just do nothing? I never held any in-money call to expiration and always sold it off before. I want to exercise and keep the shares.

It's broker-dependent. Most will either automatically exercise it or will at least warn you, but at this point you should either check their terms, or just call them and tell 'em to do it.

 

[2and20]

i'm not going to respond to any replies to my post (nor have i read any of them). Suffice it to say, Adam Jonas (who has historically been a bull on the name) provides 30 pages of justification as to why he decided to downgrade the stock. I've read it all, and it sounds reasonable.

If you would like some context, feel free to msg me.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

True enough, but let’s not make a contest out of it.



I get that. You let total strangers, whose job is quite specifically to manipulate you, manipulate you. And the reasons it worked was because of your relationship with money, and that you falsely thought those strangers on Wall Street know how to value Tesla and therefore price TSLA.

Tesla was a jump up and down screaming buy under $300 all 2019. Since then it’s just a standard raise your voice buy.

You’ve done well and congratulations, but it was still an irrational thought process at the time.

Did you have your whole life savings in it when it was in the 180’s? 300’s?

 

[SOULPEDL]

$0.88 isn't so bad. At my former employer ChargePoint charged $0.61/kWh. Home rate is $0.072. (not that I was ever tempted to sign up to be able to charge at work).

That seems high as well. I show Tesla's supercharger rates at 28 cents/kWh (flat everywhere). So did/is Tesla expensing their Supercharger growth (selling power at cost to maintain only)? Or is big energy use to huge margins, and this is the new gas price en mass?

I could see justifying higher pricing for remote areas. Actually, I'd welcome this so we might see some surprising new locations pop up - adjust the charge slightly based on location specific demand so free market kicks in. Just like I'd pay more for food up in the mountains...

 

[TradingInvest]

I take BlackRock seriously. Potentially a big deal is happening between Tesla and BlackRock.

 

[hobbes]

Ionity ends its introductory pricing of 8 euro/charge session, as of februari 79 eurocent/kWh: IONITY - WHERE & HOW

Priced to NOT sell.
Tesla is around 23 cents/kWh IIRC.

33 cents/kWh in Germany: Supercharger | Tesla Deutschland

 

[ggr]

I asked a similar question about exercising options vs selling and buying stock. The answer was overwhelmingly that it is almost always better to sell the option and then buy the stock. If I find the link to the thread I will add it here later.

Normally that is the correct advice, but not necessarily in this situation. In this case the option is deep in the money and about to expire anyway, so it has essentially no time value.

If he sells the option, he incurs tax (it's a LEAP but I think he said it was bought a few months ago). Then he buys stock with a cost basis of about $500.

If he bought the options with a strike of $350 back when the stock was about 350, I'm guessing it cost maybe $40, so by exercising he avoids paying tax on the option and has a cost basis of $390.

 

[Nocturnal]

Slowly recovering. A $510 close would be fine by me.

What time do they expire on the 17th?

Will there likely be more downward pressure at any time in particular between now and then?

They will expire at market close.

I take BlackRock seriously. Potentially a big deal is happening between Tesla and BlackRock.

Divesting 500 million in coal is a big deal. It's not like they are going to dump that into oil.

BlackRock pledges to divest from coal, take active role in energy transition