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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
ARKK is up 168.1% over 5 yrs. That's a 10.10% CAGR but it is not 'net of fees'. How much reduction in yield did ARK Invest subtract in management fees over 5 years?
Also, most of those 5 year gains happend in the first 3 years of that period (see chart below), and were unable to break out of a trading range for nearly 2 years. No denying its a lumpy performer.
It's pretty common to get a 10% return through a comparable big cap Index Fund such as ones offered by Vanguard. Many of these funds have mgmt expense ratios as low as 0.1% so sorry no crowing allowed for ARKK.
ARK Invest isn't beating the system. Time your purchase wrong, and you've got dead money drifting forward for an indeterminate length of time.
How is that better than just buying and holding TSLA? I know that Tesla is growing. I have a 8 more years to go in my 10 year investment horizon. I'm not going to cap my upside by squandering money on management fees and underperforming ETFs thanks.
Cheers!
Yup. I instantly knew this was a fake dip and bought a Feb 7 $575 call this morning when price was at 502.
It's a gamble but I feel pretty comfortable with it
hacer
Active Member
They actually expire on the 18th.
Edit. I'm out of date! It was changed to Friday's in 2013. https://www.cboe.com/publish/RegCir/RG13-118.pdf
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Mike Smith
Active Member
Mad@gascar
Teslanaire Extraordinaire
That is correct. That is why valuing a company based solely on EPS is a fallacy. Obviously, potential earnings growth plays a big role, but even if the company were static (no growth), EPS is not the whole story: Any cash holdings increase the value of the company by an equivalent amount, and any debt decreases the value by the amount of the debt.
You could use EPS (and it's growth rate, if applicable) to determine what the enterprise value should be (EV is defined as EV = Market cap - cash + debt), and then add the cash back in and subtract the debt to arrive at an estimate for the fair market value. If this value is much less than the current market cap, the company is undervalued by the market, and you should buy the stock. (Thus, for companies with a huge amount of net cash or net debt, EV/earnings ratio is a more meaningful metric than conventional P/E = market cap/earnings.)
If management comes to the same conclusion (that the stock is massively undervalued by the market), they may decide a share buyback would be a good idea, because they can buy back shares at a discount to their true value. This would be a good deal for the shareholders, likely resulting in share price gains in the future. However, for a growth company such as Tesla, this rarely makes sense, since the capital could be used by the company to finance massive future growth instead of paying for the stock buyback. In this case, the opportunity cost of the share buyback does not justify the smaller potential gain from the share buyback at a discounted price.
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I think you should go back and review the very basics of stonks 101 before you try to preach here. You're just stating pure nonsense, all due respect.
I was trying to find the graph that shows TSLA SP vs Short interest. Usually when short interest is at its highest, the stock price is low from all the selling. As they start covering and short interest goes down, the SP rises. If it is true that short interest is back to a high level, with the SP close to an ATH, this is great news for us longs. I believe this is a perfect storm to climb hard and fast again with good Q4 numbers and a strong 2020 guidance, and S&P500 inclusion.
Mike Smith
Active Member
This is a must watch. Tons of insights from Sandy into Tesla's manufacturing costs and advantages, especially with regards to cybertruck.
I was trying to find the graph that shows TSLA SP vs Short interest. Usually when short interest is at its highest, the stock price is low from all the selling. As they start covering and short interest goes down, the SP rises. If it is true that short interest is back to a high level, with the SP close to an ATH, this is great news for us longs. I believe this is a perfect storm to climb hard and fast again with good Q4 numbers and a strong 2020 guidance, and S&P500 inclusion.
It's here -- note that shares shorted are down significantly from mid-2019, but the SI "value" is nevertheless at or near an all time high due to the stock price. That is, if you believe Ihor's numbers.
I'd like to see more detail in your model. There are a number of (to me) confusing things:
And if they react like this to your model predicting $17,600 in 2028, I wonder how they'd react to my model predicting $58,246 in 2030
- Is "Autonomy" the sale of FSD-like features?
- Is "Fleet Share" the revenue from Tesla Network? Looks like it's calculated as a small % of Autonomy revenue, but it seems way too low.
- I'm also unsure what "Robotaxi" means in your model, because you said you assume they'll make 300k Tesla operated robotaxis per year, but this doesn't seem to match these numbers.
Autonomy is FSD/AP revenue.
Correct on Fleet Share. I capped it at 33% of the total vehicle fleet (excluding Semi)
Robotaxi in the model gets up to 300k by 2028
Sign me up for $58k!
I was in the unfortunate position of hauling 9,600 lbs of gravel when this afternoon's NPR story I was listening to with great attention turned to "Short sellers' spokesperson...." or some such introduction "...Mark Spiegel"
It is a very good thing none of you was sharing the road with me and my dump trailer. Somehow I did not, however, lose control of anything but my mind.
It is a very good thing none of you was sharing the road with me and my dump trailer. Somehow I did not, however, lose control of anything but my mind.
Mad@gascar
Teslanaire Extraordinaire
I realize this is counter-intuitive, but (as explained in my two previous posts) large-scale stock buybacks do indeed reduce market cap. It is the enterprise value that remains unchanged. Maybe people can't follow my explanations because I'm just a physics professor, not a finance guy. But here is an MBA in Finance and Statistics (U. Chicago) explaining the same thing:
Do stock buybacks reduce the market capitalization of a company?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Twitter
I think this is what they're on about. I dont venture into that cesspool.
OT: I think his book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder is a phenomenal read
KIND OF.
TECHNICALLY FOR A MOMENT.
But it increases the inherent value of all remaining shares. To try to frame a buyback as value-reducing is moronic and deceptive.
Actually bought Tesla when you were probably clueless about it in the spring of 2013 at around $35 per share. Check when I joined this forum.Sometimes when I scroll I accidentally touch the place on screen that says disagree and it leaves a mark...ouch.
This is really screwed up, if people don't know about Tesla, they might think that EVs are more expensive to operate.
Maybe EU gov should regulate these charging providers like utilities and prevent them from price gouging.
Right. I'm sure utilities from each state and county will fight tooth and nail for their independence and relevance and will not be happy to let Tesla build the grid/infra that replaces them.
Ummm... when did you say you bought TSLA? Can you please sell it and go back to biotech, they should pick up soon
The majority of biotechs are just labs , not businesses, going through the phase trial process
Witch is risky and barely ever successful.
Moreover you want to invest in drugs that don’t quite cure a disease, so you
Get repeat business, unlike gileads hep c cure. Then the drug better treat
A wide population of patients, not some super rare disease. Bottom line
Don’t waste your time in biotechs.
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One wonders whether they’re aware that they’re interviewing an avowed misogynist/homophobe.
davecolene0606
Member
Ionity stops subsidizing its charges. New price: €0,79/kWh(!!!) Aka $0,88/kWh.
TeslaStarson Twitter
A Porsche Toucan will cost €73 ($81) to go 200km (124 miles).
So Ionity is owned by a group whose parent companies have interests that are hurt by success of transition to sustainable transportation and energy. The charges are specifically meant to make the case that EV’s are just as if not more expensive to “fill up”. Also emphasis on “going to the station to fillerup” as opposed to reality of filling up at home each night. This is on purpose and meant to discourage main stream adoption. IMHO.
Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries, Stupid!”
Mad@gascar
Teslanaire Extraordinaire
The value of your shares doesn't change. After the stock buyback (assuming you didn't sell), you own a larger portion of a smaller company, if by company we mean the enterprise plus the company's cash. The value of the enterprise is the same, the cash is gone, there are fewer shares outstanding, so you own a greater portion of the enterprise, but have no more claim on your portion of the cash hoard, because the cash was spent.
No value was destroyed. Although there are fewer shareholders now, all with the same worth as before, the ones that sold their shares to the company now sit on an equivalent amount of cash. Everybody is happy, no value was created or destroyed.
SunCatcher
Member
OK everyone. Stop whatever it is you're doing, and watch this. Sandy Monroe, and the guys at Autoline After Hours are fawning over Tesla and its Cybertruck like fans at a Beatles concert. Only the latest to join the ranks of Jim Cramer, Blackrock, ... you get the picture. Everyone's getting on board with Tesla, and anyone who isn't will be left standing in the cold ALONE.
"Elon Musk is a genius." Sandy Monroe
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