Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

After not much movement in the european-pre-premarket. The stock just jumped 1% but all on very little volume.

View attachment 501219

View attachment 501220

The calm before the storm?

Macros are green too, Nasdaq futures have reached new all-time highs and ~0.3% gains so far.

 

[FrankSG]

After not much movement in the european-pre-premarket. The stock just jumped 1% but all on very little volume.

It may not be as crazy as yesterday, but this is still very high volume.

As of right now, TSLA is the most active US stock in $ amounts:

TSLA - $8.17M
AAPL - $5.97M
BABA - $4.80M
MSFT - $2.32M
GOOGLE - $1.90M

 

[Cohiba]

Well its going to be an up day.

Just watch

You don't think it will be held down because of the expiration date?

Is the stock price at market close used to exercise an option, or is it the after-hours closing price?

 

[Fact Checking]

Breaking news: Chinese MIC Model 3 orders have now switched over to expected deliveries in Q2:

Translation: "Expected delivery date: Second quarter of 20202".

BTW., the earlier leak from Ray4Tesla turned out to be accurate:

To save the click and to make the information searchable here on TMC:

"MIC M3 Update: Tesla sales rep says red & black M3s are completely sold out for Q1. Limited quantities of white/blue/silver M3s, if ordered now, can still be delivered be4 EOQ. She further says all orders (regardless of color) placed after wed (1/15) won’t be delivered before EOQ1."​

While anecdotal, this leak is very specific about inventory levels and about a new order cutoff date, the kind of information only Tesla sales rep have, so I'd assign it a high probability that it's true. Ray4Tesla is a reliable twitter account with good China information in the past.

BTW., I'm really, really curious exactly how many those "Q1 sales" Tesla China is planning is. Is it 10,000 units? 15,000 units?

Ray4Tesla suggests it might be more:

RayTesla️ on Twitter

"I can see an incredible year ahead for teslacn since demand is basically going through the roof. The earlier estimate of 150k Model 3s for #GF3 by EOY may be too conservative. Combined w/ rising demand in EU, things look exceptional in 2020."
​

Another users asks him about production levels: "This article says they’re already at 3000 a week", to which he says:

"I think that’s the capacity they have right now. Judging from recent hiring round, they may have added 2nd shift. My best guess is around 2k now. Gradual ramp-up will push it to 3k soon."​

Achieving an average 2k/week at GF3 through Q1 would be phenomenal ...

GF3 officially fully booked for Q1.

I'd also give more credence to Ray4Tesla's estimate of GF3 production levels.

 

[bhtooefr]

Max pain 460.

It'd take a lot for them to get it down that far.

 

[printf42]

Breaking news: Chinese MIC Model 3 orders have now switched over to expected deliveries in Q2:

View attachment 501222​

Translation: "Expected delivery date: Second quarter of 20202".

GF3 officially fully booked for Q1.

Imported AWD and P is showing the same 2020 Q2 delivery date.
OMG shipping overseas for Q1 has barely started yet.

 

[Tslynk67]

Imported AWD and P is showing the same 2020 Q2 delivery date.
OMG shipping overseas for Q1 has barely started yet.

Did we already exceeded Jonas’ 2020 estimates for China deliveries?

 

[Fact Checking]

In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.64 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.*

*Note: Since we released our last quarterly safety report, NHTSA has released new data, which we’ve referenced in this quarter’s report.

So the relevant comparison are year over year changes, due to seasonality (there are more crashes in the winter), but there's also two other shifts in the Tesla fleet:

• Younger owners due to lower price Model 3 availability improving affordability,
• geographical expansion due to lots of European Model 3 deliveries.

These two factors make it hard to compare these figures, even year over year.

 

[nativewolf]

Ionity is moving to kwh-based pricing. Only 0,79€/kWh.
IONITY - NEWS & MEDIA

I know there is a full thread on this but to me the impacts on the EU market are tremendous. Superchargers are more important in the EU (my understanding, could be wrong) and for less efficient cars (Porsche Toycan) that have almost half the range for a given battery the cost to fill will be almost 4x as high so the total cost to drive x miles in a Toycan will be nearly 8x as high as a Tesla. 8X the costs? Am I right?

 

[The Accountant]

2019 Tesla China Registrations:

Source: China Automotive Information Net

 

[jerry33]

Uhh... enough Powerwalls to charge your cars? So, SIX PowerWalls (13.5 kWh each) for a Model 3 (~75 kWh), for instance? That seems excessive. I think if the PowerWalls are acting as the backup power source, there needs to be a different plan for charging cars.

Well, now you know why I haven't purchased any Powerwalls yet.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Nice, the little manipulators are doing their game again.
While I look towards east, and I prepare to recharge my entry.

Live long and TSLA.

 

[Fact Checking]

2019 Tesla China Registrations:
View attachment 501226
Source: China Automotive Information Net

So 13k sales in China in Q4, after 7.9k in Q3, +64% QoQ growth and should bode well for GF3 demand.

 

[Dare]

Indeed.

Buffett avoids agency risk by dominantly buying entire companies, or taking out huge stakes in the companies that are too large for them to buy - so that investors can only take part in the gains by buying BRK.A or BRK.B:

• either the shares are not public at all,
• or Buffett's stake is so large that:
  • the investor would risk a big drop in the price if Buffett reduces his stake, which he'll do in secret,
  • the investor would also miss out on the initial increase in the share price when Berkshire Hathaway invests in a company.

Buffett also primarily buys discounted cash flow from undervalued rent seeking companies under temporary distress, not innovators like ARK. I think Cathie, Tasha and the other ARK analysts would bore themselves to death if all they did was to search out and patiently acquire discounted monopolies.

Btw., I half expected Buffett to buy a big chunk of TSLA when it dropped below $200 - it's the obvious next big quasi-monopoly and he owns other EV stakes, but he didn't.

I haven’t seen much commentary from Buffett regarding TSLA. Other than the “the car business is difficult”. Does anyone know his official position?

 

[Tslynk67]

Ok, here comes the Market Manipulators, trying to avoid paying out all those options sitting at $500 (mods - we really need a ROFLOL emoji in this forum for the crap we have to report all the time...)

 

[replicant]

I did a quick search for Model 3 vs BMW 3 Series interest in Google Trends. It seems that demand for Model 3 will end up being 2x demand for the 3 Series in the medium term. Some events might increase/decrease this at first and we should have some local variations (cf. Tesla brand in the US vs Germany, strong launch in Norway, end of subsidies in the Netherlands, etc) and the ratio could grow over time but that doubling seems quite clear after comparing these historical trends between countries.

 

[jerry33]

"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does.

Yeah, except once side believes in innovation and a better future, the others believe in whatever conspiracy they can conjure on any given day.

Seriously, these claims of fraud are just ridiculous, even if there were some accounting tricks in the books (name me a company that doesn't do that), they don't amount to fraud - the fact that Tesla will likely sell over half a million cars this year is the proof.

And Autopilot being "near homicidal" - what universe do these people live in? Sure it's dangerous if you tape an orange to the wheel and climb in the back seat, but try doing that with another car without Autopilot (put a brick on the gas pedal) and report back to me on how it went, if you can...

Then we have the while "surviving on subsidy" nonsense, which completely fails to address the fact that fossil fuels receive much higher subsidies than EV's and renewables.

Any normal, rational human being would understand this.

The problem here is that without any other input (such as actually investigating for themselves) people tend to believe whichever of their fellow brays the loudest. (I'm sure you can think of examples without me citing them.)

 

[HG Wells]

Any new guesses as to ER date ?
Feb 4 ?

 

[Huskyf]

Strange pre-market -2.12% any bad new or just shorts ?

 

[LJS22]

Strange pre-market -2.12% any bad new or just shorts ?

Mainly manipulation but I’m sure they’ll use this
Carl Quintanilla on Twitter
investigation into unintended acceleration