Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

One other note on this new podcast: Kimbal has massive “Elon access privilege.” Imagine fiddling on your phone, ignoring a conversation with Elon for which you literally have a seat at the table!

Totally off-topic, but thanks also to @KarenRei

Err, you do realize he is his brother, right? And that I am sure he has heard every thing Elon said there before? Anyway...

What I found more interesting is that Kimbal was the more forceful personality, and the fraternal dynamic where Elon sort of naturally defers to his brother.

Family, amiright? Make a hundred billion and your brother still talks over you at the dining room table! Kidding, didn't see anything disrespectful, just thought it was funny.

 

[KarenRei]

So, now that we're finally over $100B, I decided to make a spreadsheet to calculate what price the stock will need to be at over the next X days in order for Musk to get his first stock award:

Elon Musk stock award price targets

Caveats: it doesn't model how much dilution will happen with the stock in the coming days, how much dilution happened in the past 30 days / 6 months, and it uses the average of closing prices rather than an instantaneous average across each day. But it should be roughly accurate. It updates in realtime at the end of each trading day.

 

[MartinAustin]

Why do you assume his base would be anti Tesla? Plenty of conservatives own Teslas, and TSLA. Good post.

Because Tesla is spiritually connected with climate change and the demise of fossil fuel business - neither of which are well-known good guys in Trumpworld - they are subjects to be avoided, in fact, if you want to align yourself with Trump propaganda.

I also know a lot of conservatives who own/adore Tesla cars & stock. I refer to the ones that can't decide for themselves.

I hasten to say overtly that they are anti-Tesla as of yesterday; but IMO the majority of Trump's base stand by ready to become galvanized against Tesla if that's what Trump wants. Trump took a step back from mobilizing them today and we are all better for it. He could reverse his position of course. We are not out of the woods

 

[CanadaEV]

So, now that we're finally over $100B, I decided to make a spreadsheet to calculate what price the stock will need to be at over the next X days in order for Musk to get his first stock award:

Elon Musk stock award price targets

Caveats: it doesn't model how much dilution will happen with the stock in the coming days, how much dilution happened in the past 30 days / 6 months, and it uses the average of closing prices rather than an instantaneous average across each day. But it should be roughly accurate. It updates in realtime at the end of each trading day.

Nicely done on this and the summary of the podcast. Thanks!

 

[SageBrush]

Ford expects $2.2 billion pre-tax hit related to pension plans in fourth quarter

Not having these legacy employee issues is a huge advantage for Tesla.

Or legacy healthcare costs.
Or advertising. I read earlier today that the auto industry spent ~ $45 BILLIION on advertising in 2015. For companies other than Tesla this is usually 3 - 6 Billion a year.

I wonder if the shorts put those cost advantages into their 'value investing' spreadsheets.
It actually pains me that Ben Graham's opus has been so sorely warped by those idiots.

 

[SO16]

This board will be full of Millionaires if not already.

I’m not a TSLAnaire....but Tesla certainly is a significant part of being a millionaire. Thank you Elon.

True. But plenty of states have had Democrats block them as well. And I believe it's a Democrat senator that is trying to ban autopilot.
Things are never as black and white as some try and paint them. It's mostly a game of follow the money anyway.

True. It’s just that republicans tout FREE MARKET, FREE MARKET! Let the market decide! Don’t have government laws stand in the way of business. This is one of their top core messages. Well....until they are paid off.

Its also extremely disappointing about that Dem trying to block autopilot. I called their office and sent them a message even though I’m not in his state.

 

[KarenRei]

Nicely done on this and the summary of the podcast. Thanks!

And if you need a summary for the spreadsheet... if the Q4 ER and guidance makes the market happy, and there's no loss of confidence during Q1, Elon will probably see a payday in April. In an exceptional case, late March. In a solid-but-not-spectacular case, May.

 

[SteveG3]

Totally off-topic, but thanks also to @KarenRei

Err, you do realize he is his brother, right? And that I am sure he has heard every thing Elon said there before? Anyway...

What I found more interesting is that Kimbal was the more forceful personality, and the fraternal dynamic where Elon sort of naturally defers to his brother.

Family, amiright? Make a hundred billion and your brother still talks over you at the dining room table! Kidding, didn't see anything disrespectful, just thought it was funny.

lols, yes, I do realize, I was simply making an attempt at humor. fwiw, if it was during trading hours, I probably would of got lost in my phone a couple of times too at that table.

 

[anthonyj]

extreme FOMO watching yall racking up 10x+ gains on options

might have to log off a bit even though my stocks only portfolio has 2x

Only 10x? You don’t like my 100x? :/

 

[Darkfox021]

So, now that we're finally over $100B, I decided to make a spreadsheet to calculate what price the stock will need to be at over the next X days in order for Musk to get his first stock award:

Elon Musk stock award price targets

Caveats: it doesn't model how much dilution will happen with the stock in the coming days, how much dilution happened in the past 30 days / 6 months, and it uses the average of closing prices rather than an instantaneous average across each day. But it should be roughly accurate. It updates in realtime at the end of each trading day.

So ~April.

Nice work!

 

[flabellina]

Totally off-topic, but thanks also to @KarenRei

Err, you do realize he is his brother, right? And that I am sure he has heard every thing Elon said there before? Anyway...

What I found more interesting is that Kimbal was the more forceful personality, and the fraternal dynamic where Elon sort of naturally defers to his brother.

Family, amiright? Make a hundred billion and your brother still talks over you at the dining room table! Kidding, didn't see anything disrespectful, just thought it was funny.

I wouldn't say Kimbal has the more forceful personality. Look at the way Elon corrected Kimbal, several times. You can see in his eyes that inaccuracies make his brain itch, no wonder he is not fond of the media.
Kimbal is a "people person", Elon is introverted.
Nice to see the interaction. It's really just a family.

 

[ggr]

I wouldn't say Kimbal has the more forceful personality. Look at the way Elon corrected Kimbal, several times. You can see in his eyes that inaccuracies make his brain itch, no wonder he is not fond of the media.
Kimbal is a "people person", Elon is introverted.
Nice to see the interaction. It's really just a family.

I'd like to see more of Tosca. Ummm... I guess that can be misinterpreted. What I mean is that she's another achiever in the family.
Tosca Musk - IMDb

 

[MABMAB]

Sold a couple of these, still have 8 others at different strikes with similar gains

View attachment 503225

WOW You are a BSD!

 

[flabellina]

I'd like to see more of Tosca. Ummm... I guess that can be misinterpreted. What I mean is that she's another achiever in the family.
Tosca Musk - IMDb

I like her a lot. I saw a CNBC interview about Passionflix where the hosts started asking questions about elon and how was his mood when he was sued and all that stuff, and she bounced them off really good with a smile.
Elon is the smartest, but not because the other two are stupid... and it's good to have a strong family, makes the difference really. It's more important than many people realize.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Ok, am I being greedy in feeling disappointed we closed below $570? I know, I know, a few weeks ago we were jumping for joy at being close to $420...but still. LOL!

Dan

 

[Chickenlittle]

And if you need a summary for the spreadsheet... if the Q4 ER and guidance makes the market happy, and there's no loss of confidence during Q1, Elon will probably see a payday in April. In an exceptional case, late March. In a solid-but-not-spectacular case, May.

He already has seen a lot larger pay day over the last 3 months than his bonus will be

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I like her a lot. I saw a CNBC interview about Passionflix where the hosts started asking questions about elon and how was his mood when he was sued and all that stuff, and she bounced them off really good with a smile.
Elon is the smartest, but not because the other two are stupid... and it's good to have a strong family, makes the difference really. It's more important than many people realize.

...and it all stems from Maye. VERY impressed with her. Hope we see more of her in Tesla content moving forward.

Dan

 

[S3XY]

Like transparent aluminum?

And then Wonder Woman's plane.

 

[TradingInvest]

i just read through umpteen pages of posts here and while many folks commented on Trump’s quotes about ‘genius’ Musk, and a few shared the transcript of Trump’s entire (rambling) statement, I could not find anyone focusing in on the last words Trump uttered, especially the final sentence:



To me this is the most interesting thing Trump said. The rest was the typical random word salad from a super-buggy neural net. But that very last sentence is, I’m certain, the real Trump: it seems like a message directly aimed at Musk, as if he is talking directly to him and not the reporter. It could be a quid pro quo of sorts, or a subtle threat, but it’s something, and I sure as hell wanna know what it is.

To me it's obvious Tesla plans to build more gigafactories in the US, in China and EU. Tesla will need at least 20, maybe 50 down the road. A lot will happen in the next 10 years.

I think the following comment is actually quite true and very important. Regardless of which party we support, we should agree those hard working geniuses are very valuable to the society. Especially if they focus on doing good things for the world.

"(Elon Musk) is one of our great geniuses". “...And he’s one of our very smart people and we want to cherish those people.”

 

[Unpilot]

Ok, am I being greedy in feeling disappointed we closed below $570? I know, I know, a few weeks ago we were jumping for joy at being close to $420...but still. LOL!

Dan

I feel your pain...and it is still falling in AH...grr