Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

Next bump takes us to $585?

The super steep jumps that we have seen over the past few weeks are large buy orders right? IIRC the same pattern happened last week with sharp spikes, slow drops, and then another larger spike mid-day or so.

I think most people have taken up the positions they want to pre-earnings. Volume is significantly lower than it was 1-2 weeks ago. I'd be very surprised to see $585 later today, unless macros/crazy news.

 

[serverguy247]

My European bank ****ed things up: they forgot to ask me to prove I'm not a US person (for tax purpose, although I've always been a European resident to them for more than a decade. So they've blocked me from buying/selling US stocks since the end of last week, because they haven't completed the certification process.

I've been trying to purchase a nice lot of shares for days, to no avail. It looks like I'll be ban for 2 more days… after the earnings report. I'm quite mad.

Have anyone else face the same situation. Any suggestion to buy stocks from Europe before the earnings (without too much delay for opening an account)?

Yeh, I had something Similar. Needed to renew my w-8ben form and send it in before the 31st Jan, or they will sell all my US shares. Realised this on Sunday and rushed it in. Will call them tomorrow to make sure it is processed! My own fault for not opening my snail-mail...

 

[StealthP3D]

Ihor: "If you fully paid for your stock and are not using margin to buy your shares then your broker cannot touch (rehypothicate) and lend your shares."

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

More BS from Ihor. Sounds like a short-squeeze is developing and he's trying to soften the blow for his clients.

Read your brokerage agreements, people. AFAIK, they will typically give your broker the right to lend your shares as long as they are in an account that qualifies as a margin account. And doesn't everyone have a margin account (even if not using margin)?

Is it time to recall our shares?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Try Degiro.

I would advice against DeGiro if you want to trade in US options. They don't offer those (which I unfortunately only discovered after opening an account with them).

 

[Hock1]

I can guess the short interest figures more accurately than Ihor can figure them using his "proprietary" techniques! I believe his numbers are intended to confuse and deceive, to the benefit of his clients, short-sellers.

There is no way he can be accurate, inherently. The life-blood of manipulative shorts is the ability of so-called market makers to short stock without first borrowing the stock. The magnitude of these shares at any time is indeterminable. Also, the Fails-To-Deliver, although ostensibly reported by the brokers on a daily basis, is very suspect. Since FINRA reports these numbers to the SEC, and the brokers who are the lender of shares own and operate FINRA, the chances of integrity in these numbers is also dubious. As I have mentioned, in a conversation with a recently-retired NASDAQ attorney, I learned that the DTCC, which is charged with ensuring that shares of every individual stock in the system do not exceed the shares outstanding (allowing for legitimate shorts), has no idea how many shares actually are out there vis-a-vis shares outstanding.

 

[lklundin]

You could try opening an account at Interactive Brokers.

Lowest Cost Online Trading and Investing | Interactive Brokers

It was really easy for me, and quite fast. I'm not sure you'd be able to buy shares before market close tomorrow, but I think you might have a chance if you do it all as soon as possible.

If you're able to open the account today, and fund it tomorrow before market open, you should have the money in your account before market close tomorrow. They have a European bank account (in Germany) that you can wire funds to, and it usually gets processed within a few hours.

It has been a slow and not yet finalized process for me - due to my old bank suddenly taking a very long time to confirm their receipt of my portfolio transfer order and then iterating a couple of times on exactly how I had to provide them with my instructions.

So for more than half of my portfolio, I may find myself to not be a weak long even if the SP shoots to 4k $ due to margin calls on Friday...

Along those lines, it's better to not start out with the large margin allowance if your collateral is a portfolio that is to be transferred, because then until the transfer is complete you will not be able to activate your account and make even non-margin trades. In that case, start out with normal (or no) margin allowance and wait for your portfolio transfer to complete before having the larger margin allowance enabled.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

My European bank ****ed things up: they forgot to ask me to prove I'm not a US person (for tax purpose, although I've always been a European resident to them for more than a decade. So they've blocked me from buying/selling US stocks since the end of last week, because they haven't completed the certification process.

I've been trying to purchase a nice lot of shares for days, to no avail. It looks like I'll be ban for 2 more days… after the earnings report. I'm quite mad.

Have anyone else face the same situation. Any suggestion to buy stocks from Europe before the earnings (without too much delay for opening an account)?

In the UK it only takes around 24 hours to get the certification once you have submitted the form.

 

[cricketman]

Thanks for the tip, but it seems far too limited

"You are also allowed to place an order up to a maximum of US$1000 in value at any one time (we will be reviewing this limit over time). For example, you can buy US$1,000 worth of stock and then immediately after, buy another US$1,000 of the same stock, but you cannot buy US$2,000 worth of stock in one go."

https://www.revolut.com/help/exploring-revolut/trading/trading-stocks/are-there-any-order-limits

That's not the case with the revolut metal subscription. You can buy what you like.

I have bought 490 TSLA shares since September that way

 

[samppa]

I would advice against DeGiro if you want to trade in US options. They don't offer them (which I unfortunately only discovered after opening an account with them).

True. You can only buy call or put warrants.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why the sudden dip? Maybe algolbots react to latest headline:

American World War II bombs found at Tesla’s new German site...

But fail to read the whole sentence:

...have been defused

 

[pz1975]

More BS from Ihor. Sounds like a short-squeeze is developing and he's trying to soften the blow for his clients.

Read your brokerage agreements, people. AFAIK, they will typically give your broker the right to lend your shares as long as they are in an account that qualifies as a margin account. And doesn't everyone have a margin account (even if not using margin)?

Is it time to recall our shares?

Can we make a Forum-wide agreement not to post anymore of Ihor’s short float predictions? They have been wrong for as long as I remember and only can cause harm to investors using his data to predict SP moves.

If someone created a poll every 2 weeks guessing the short float, I bet our wild-ass guess results would as good or better than his. I’m serious about this. With this run-up, I was sure the short float would be lower and it was. He predicted it would be higher.

So let’s do the smart thing and just ignore him altogether.

 

[Fact Checking]

Has anything indicated that the FCA credits will be paid quarterly, as opposed to e.g. in a lump sum early in 2021 after all the sales figures for 2020 are finalized? I haven't seen anything to say one way or the other.

Correct, there's been very little disclosure about this.

 

[avoigt]

Can we make a Forum-wide agreement not to post anymore of Ihor’s short float predictions? They have been wrong for as long as I remember and only can cause harm to investors using his data to predict SP moves.

If someone created a poll every 2 weeks guessing the short float, I bet our wild-ass guess results would as good or better than his. I’m serious about this. With this run-up, I was sure the short float would be lower and it was. He predicted it would be higher.

So let’s do the smart thing and just ignore him altogether.

Strongly disagree, not listening to other opinions and positions is never a good idea, not in politics not in business or private life and not in investing. TESLAQ made a big mistake by isolating themselves in an echo chamber with a twitter block list and that was for many not a good idea. Lets not repeat that mistake.

Thats does not mean you have to agree or disagree to Ihor or me but having more information is just helpful to build a meaningful opinion.

Beside of that Ihor is a good source of information in a variety of aspects which again does not mean I agree or disagree to all what he said.

 

[lklundin]

Can we make a Forum-wide agreement not to post anymore of Ihor’s short float predictions? They have been wrong for as long as I remember and only can cause harm to investors using his data to predict SP moves.

If someone created a poll every 2 weeks guessing the short float, I bet our wild-ass guess results would as good or better than his. I’m serious about this. With this run-up, I was sure the short float would be lower and it was. He predicted it would be higher.

So let’s do the smart thing and just ignore him altogether.

No, the estimates should just be properly attributed to him - because then we learn what others are seeing, people who may trade on that information.

For the same reason we also don't want to ban the Technical Analysis posts.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Why the sudden dip?

Shorties tightening the spring.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Why the sudden dip? Maybe algolbots react to latest headline:

American World War II bombs found at Tesla’s new German site...

But fail to read the whole sentence:

...have been defused

Does that count as friendly fire?

 

[FrankSG]

\Needed to renew my w-8ben form and send it in before the 31st Jan, or they will sell all my US shares\

Woow, that is some scary stuff. Can they legally do that?

 

[pz1975]

Strongly disagree, not listening to other opinions and positions is never a good idea, not in politics not in business or private life and not in investing. TESLAQ made a big mistake by isolating themselves in an echo chamber with a twitter block list and that was for many not a good idea. Lets not repeat that mistake.

Thats does not mean you have to agree or disagree to Ihor or me but having more information is just helpful to build a meaningful opinion.

Beside of that Ihor is a good source of information in a variety of aspects which again does not mean I agree or disagree to all what he said.

I don't think ignoring him isolates us from outside opinions at all. He provides basically a single data point everyday of short float changes. But he is always wrong. His data is as valuable as any of us just randomly posting a guessed prediction of short float everyday, except that some people believe his numbers have validity and may make trades based on that. He is ALWAYS wrong so why post his single data point at all? Posting it gives him credibility that he does not deserve.

EDIT: If people want to see his data, that is fine of course, but I would recommend a disclaimer before every post showing his tweets explaining that the data posted is basically a guess and has never been shown to be correct (since there are always new people coming on here or those who do not know Ihor's history).

 

[StealthP3D]

Strongly disagree, not listening to other opinions and positions is never a good idea, not in politics not in business or private life and not in investing. TESLAQ made a big mistake by isolating themselves in an echo chamber with a twitter block list and that was for many not a good idea. Lets not repeat that mistake.

Thats does not mean you have to agree or disagree to Ihor or me but having more information is just helpful to build a meaningful opinion.

Beside of that Ihor is a good source of information in a variety of aspects which again does not mean I agree or disagree to all what he said.

I will often listen to people who are trying to deceive me. Otherwise, I wouldn't read TSLA analyst's reports!

But maybe Ihor's reports shouldn't be posted without a warning that they are usually misleading. Otherwise, we would be furthering his deception.

 

[SageBrush]

So let’s do the smart thing

Do you know of a source that is at least as timely and has a better track record ?
If not then recognize the likely error bar in the estimate and go from there.