Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

There will be a day, possibly 10 years from now, when Tesla's post earning rally on triple beat will be like 1.5% AH
Let that sink in for a moment. It will be a sad day.

 

[BornToFly]

Less than 24 hours until I know if I can start planning my retirement this year....

 

[FrankSG]

I think 10k to 15k Made-In-China Model 3s is high for Q1. If we assume the 1k per week was a test spike rate, not a sustained rate, then I think it safe to assume an average rate of 1k a week spread over Q1. Add in 3 weeks downtime for the holiday + extension due to virus, and that narrows to about 10 weeks of production. So, I'm going to estimate 7k to 10k Model 3s made in China in Q1.

I, however, will point out that my estimates should carry less weight when compared to the more experienced and knowledgeable members here.

Only thing is that their peak production rate was 3k/week, not 1k/week. They've also said they will be adding a 2nd shift after CNY.

Personally, I think it's hard to estimate accurately, but I think there's a lot more upside than 10-15k. I'd guess we'll see 10-25k MiC M3 delivered in Q1.

 

[FrankSG]

If you had 30x gains, your taxes would be even more. Good thing you only had 6x gains!

For anyone who hates paying capital gains taxes, I suggest you sell all your TSLA right now before the capital gains get really big!

Or move to Singapore with me! No capital gains taxes in Singapore

 

[Navin]

I’ve been blocked by teslacharts - is he still posting like 20-30x a day a bunch of nonsense?!

 

[Unpilot]

Tomorrow I start building my Island assault vehicle.
With the gains from TSLA I should be able to have the anti-gravity/boring machine finished by the time a certain cat start's to move onto their island.

 

[FrankSG]

 

[EVNow]

Adding Factset numbers …. (from TeslaDaily)

 

[JustSaying]

lol: I've been to that All American....great burgers, dogs & fries in a 50's era hamburger joint.[/QUirst stop after landing in New York is All American , my wife gets a grilled cheese, fries an a knish. Next stop Nathan's on route 110 in Huntington I get a grilled Hot(s) with kraut and fries.

lol: I've been to that All American....great burgers, dogs & fries in a 50's era hamburger joint.

Our first stop after landing in New York is All American , my wife gets a grilled cheese, fries an a knish. Next stop Nathan's on route 110 in Huntington I get a grilled Hot dog(s) with kraut, deli mustard and fries.
Really no kidding and I am not that fat (yet?)...

 

[ZeApelido]

There will be a day, possibly 10 years from now, when Tesla's post earning rally on triple beat will be like 1.5% AH
Let that sink in for a moment. It will be a sad day.

I believe I will be on my yacht that day so couldn't be that sad.

 

[Cattledog]

I have a feeling this will be the most fun earnings call since, '...it's like the fish are jumping into the barrel...'

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

I think you just invented leasing.

And some people in fact always do that.

I think he invented subscriptions base services like what Audi BMW etc are doing in select US cities.

 

[ammulder]

And all you have to do to get that feature vs the “old” supercruise is buy a new car.

And drive on a road that's been pre-mapped with LIDAR, don't forget!

So not exactly comparable to autopilot.

Yeah I think it's a combo of China being overly cautious AND doing it because they can. To us it looks insane and scary because that's hard to imagine here.

I know -- it is truly hard to imagine having long-distance bus and rail lines here that would even be worth shutting down.

 

[Ratanpara]

It wouldn’t surprise me if TSLA pull back a little after earnings, but if it doesn’t I will be watching fights among short sellers to cover their positions.

 

[Hock1]

If you had 30x gains, your taxes would be even more. Good thing you only had 6x gains!

For anyone who hates paying capital gains taxes, I suggest you sell all your TSLA right now before the capital gains get really big!

I love paying capital gains. The more the merrier! If you sell too soon you will pay less (but have a lot less with which to pay and you will need to pay it sooner). That is the first deadly sin of investing (selling too soon).

Would you rather own TSLA or NFLX? Because NFLX's market cap is about 1 1/2 times the size of TSLA's. Tesla needs to go to around $850 to be as valuable as NFLX. Looking 10 years down the road I think NFLX will be a has-been while Tesla will be one of the world's most important companies.

My goal is to write a $1 million check to the IRS. Best I've done so far is $645K. I love paying capital gains taxes.

 

[colettimj]

And all you have to do to get that feature vs the “old” supercruise is buy a new car.

And don't drive on a highway where there is construction. At least I assume that's the reason that chunks of I95 are missing from Super Cruise near Philadelphia. I've been using AP through that area of 95 since shortly after v9 software was released. This type of construction lasts years.

Super Cruise map is on this page.

 

[Yuri_G]

Who posted the post-earnings price movement chart before Q3 earnings? I found that extremely helpful.

 

[RobStark]

It wouldn’t matter much if they robotaxi a gasoline car, only electric cars would fit in this world as cost of running it would be far better. However, it is interesting that as these other brands catch up and add lane changing Tesla prepares to unleash city driving for their fleet.

the last 5% of autonomy will be the real race. If it’s even possible, but I put my money on Tesla to get it done.

Cruise Origin to be among many EVs, self-driving cars from GM's Hamtramck

This is GM's robotaxi. It is 100% electric and GM is aiming for 1M mile drivetrain.

This Bolt is also in the pipeline.

I think Tesla wins.That is why over half of my networth is invested in Tesla(thanks to the recent runup) and why I am here (almost)every day.

But it seems, unlike BMW CEO, Mary is not a complete idiot.

BTW Also, GM is not a general solution. Hands Free Supercruise is available on mapped highways( most heavily used highways) and it seems launch of GM Cruise Robotaxi is for San Francisco. A tough city for first rollout. But not a general solution. They will have to map city by city. Then use drones to remap changes.

 

[Curt Renz]

Cleanerwatt - today:

 

[kcveins]

Although, considering the prices of new Iphones that's only a few thousand right?

Not quite
You are off by a factor of 1000...