And if that 1.5% adds $100 per share, I’ll be satisfied
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
FWIW, my son and DIL are medical professionals in two different hospital systems in San Diego. Their hospital briefings are saying the same thing.
all,
ihor numbers (estimates) are based upon data from paid participants of S3.
if the total street securities lending book is ‘n’,
a subset of those, street participants like merrill, goldman, state street (the largest sec lending desk) etc etc pay and are part of S3 data provider. in exchange for S3 data, you provide your info/stats.
since not all street participants use S3 (or give up their book to S3), then ihor only has a subset of the total street activity. so no surprise there can be deviations from what is reported publicly by nasdaq in accordance w finra after the fact
as i’ve said in past, SI is not a leading indicator. there’s no way to know real time SI. the fact that ihor reports/focuses on tesla...maybe he’s just using such a polar stock, on twitter, to get S3 some more recognition and gain subscribers? i don’t think there’s any ulterior motive than that, nor do i put a ton of stock in it.
what is important, is that his numbers reflect what is reported to S3, and then maybe extrapolated on
anything other than that, then shame on him. but i don’t think it’s anything malicious. and again, at the same time, if you look at it for what it is, it’s not that big a deal, nor should it be taken as one.
the SI is at one of highest $ value ever for tsla - that to me, is more stunning.
so again,
s3 doesn’t have the full picture...doesn’t have all the data to provide complete accuracy. also isn’t harmful if you know that going into it.
even so, as of 1/15 tsla SI ~11.9bb, right up there in the top all time (~13bb)
which is crazy. it may be true that short in shares have gone up since 1/15. ihor may be right, or he may be wrong
fact is, anything in this range, or frankly anything over 5-7bb on a company with this much going for it is nuts
if we ever did have a squeeze, GTFOOTW
we haven’t had it yet
ihor numbers (estimates) are based upon data from paid participants of S3.
if the total street securities lending book is ‘n’,
a subset of those, street participants like merrill, goldman, state street (the largest sec lending desk) etc etc pay and are part of S3 data provider. in exchange for S3 data, you provide your info/stats.
since not all street participants use S3 (or give up their book to S3), then ihor only has a subset of the total street activity. so no surprise there can be deviations from what is reported publicly by nasdaq in accordance w finra after the fact
as i’ve said in past, SI is not a leading indicator. there’s no way to know real time SI. the fact that ihor reports/focuses on tesla...maybe he’s just using such a polar stock, on twitter, to get S3 some more recognition and gain subscribers? i don’t think there’s any ulterior motive than that, nor do i put a ton of stock in it.
what is important, is that his numbers reflect what is reported to S3, and then maybe extrapolated on
anything other than that, then shame on him. but i don’t think it’s anything malicious. and again, at the same time, if you look at it for what it is, it’s not that big a deal, nor should it be taken as one.
the SI is at one of highest $ value ever for tsla - that to me, is more stunning.
so again,
s3 doesn’t have the full picture...doesn’t have all the data to provide complete accuracy. also isn’t harmful if you know that going into it.
even so, as of 1/15 tsla SI ~11.9bb, right up there in the top all time (~13bb)
which is crazy. it may be true that short in shares have gone up since 1/15. ihor may be right, or he may be wrong
fact is, anything in this range, or frankly anything over 5-7bb on a company with this much going for it is nuts
if we ever did have a squeeze, GTFOOTW
we haven’t had it yet
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla patent for electrolyte additive to improve battery life. Battery Day can't get here soon enough.
Tesla filed a patent 'Dioxazolones and nitrile sulfites as electrolyte additives for lithium-ion batteries'
Let's say for net gaap income:
Q2 2019 - (408m)
Q3 2019 - 143m
Q4 2020 - 265m (hypothetical)
Q1 2020 - 1m (hypothetical)
Tesla will be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion after Q1 earnings.
So, the magic number is Tesla needs to announce at least $265m in gaap net income tomorrow, and then be slightly profitable for Q1. We'll see what kind of guidance Tesla gives, if any, regarding this.
My estimates...
Q2 2019 - (408m)
Q3 2019 - 143m
Q4 2020 - 265m (hypothetical)
Q1 2020 - 1m (hypothetical)
Tesla will be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion after Q1 earnings.
So, the magic number is Tesla needs to announce at least $265m in gaap net income tomorrow, and then be slightly profitable for Q1. We'll see what kind of guidance Tesla gives, if any, regarding this.
My estimates...
No, it would still qualify if it reported $1M tomorrow and $256M for Q1. Or $128.5M both quarters. I don't understand why people are fixating on the $256M number.
tschmidty
Member
How are any of these posts related to investing in Tesla?
I guess people plan to celebrate with beer and all american burgers tomorrow after closing bell? maybe stop at a firework place on the way to the restaurant?
While I still believe things can go either way, I'd truly love to have some all american burgers.
It's all about the Hotdogs-per-Share-Ratio now!
But I'd still suggest buying them on margin.
Last edited:
Well I, for one, kind of relish these marginal threads.
JusRelax
Active Member
$256M is a magic number because that is the number where Tesla can make one cent of profit in Q1 and still be eligible to join the S&P500 after Q1.
Q1 2019 is still very fresh in many investors' (and shorts') minds, so minimizing the amount of profit they need to make in Q1 is key in their minds of increasing the possibility of joining S&P500 after Q1 earnings are released.
If Tesla records $265M in Q4 2019 and also states that Q1 2020 is sold out everywhere globally, IMO this is the lethal combo that will set the shorts running for the hills since S&P500 eligibility would basically be guaranteed after Q1 earnings.
And according to what I heard installers being booked to November for powerwalls I see lots of cash flow opportunity for q1 from the $0 valued battery storage business. Especially now that with higher SP price more tesla existing owners may feel empowered to retrofit solar (i am) and upgrade vehicles. I noticed a lot more new model 3 and x as well as used model s in our neighborhood. Maybe there is an upgrade wave under way.
Yuri_G
Member
anthonyj
Stonks
Why is everyone thinking Tesla will report only 250m profit? They sold almost 20k more cars than Q3, more S/X and raised prices. Will be over $500m profit
Elon even tweeted that the shares are underappreciated.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon even tweeted that the shares are underappreciated.
Elon Musk on Twitter
had not figured that one out yet
For those who didn't watch the video, someone bought almost $2 million worth of June $800 calls.
AquaMan
Member
Some of you folks are pretty sophisticated with valuation.
Me? I'm long because I believe Tesla will continue to grow, FAST, because they've proven over and over that competitors can't touch their technology and vision.
And I see something else. For the last 60-plus years, the basic definition of "a car" has hardly changed. We got greater fuel efficiency, we went from carburetors to fuel injection, seat belts and airbags were improved, and most cars have added some kind of touchscreen with Bluetooth and backup cameras. Big whoop.
Tesla is THE company that "rethunk the idea of what a car can be." The others just don't have the vision to innovate as Tesla has. Tesla has taken risks and some of them may not work out, but some definitely will.
For example, 10 years from now, will Cybertruck be a joke, or will it be iconic? We all have our beliefs on that, but frankly we don't know yet. But we DO know this... Cybertruck won't go down in history as "just another truck".
Oh, and they're on the cutting edge for solar too.
And the Semi... that could genuinely change shipping!
Tesla will go down in history as a game changer even if they fail, and I've chosen to ride along for this financial adventure.
Me? I'm long because I believe Tesla will continue to grow, FAST, because they've proven over and over that competitors can't touch their technology and vision.
And I see something else. For the last 60-plus years, the basic definition of "a car" has hardly changed. We got greater fuel efficiency, we went from carburetors to fuel injection, seat belts and airbags were improved, and most cars have added some kind of touchscreen with Bluetooth and backup cameras. Big whoop.
Tesla is THE company that "rethunk the idea of what a car can be." The others just don't have the vision to innovate as Tesla has. Tesla has taken risks and some of them may not work out, but some definitely will.
For example, 10 years from now, will Cybertruck be a joke, or will it be iconic? We all have our beliefs on that, but frankly we don't know yet. But we DO know this... Cybertruck won't go down in history as "just another truck".
Oh, and they're on the cutting edge for solar too.
And the Semi... that could genuinely change shipping!
Tesla will go down in history as a game changer even if they fail, and I've chosen to ride along for this financial adventure.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
