Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[chrsk]

Green today would be hilarious.

Indeed, but not that likely...

However, made a few $ out of my new shares

 

[azaz]

750 went from support to resistance, what a crazy trading day(s)

 

[jerry33]

Licensing battery tech to accelerate electrification may not make the best sense (for a few reason) in my option.

Ultimately, one or many of the majors will have to merge with Tesla as maybe the fastest way. In the merger deal, Tesla will get all their useful production facilities and land. Shareholders in the majors will convert their stock to tsla. All "transition" costs of factories and employees will be negotiated and also be a determinate of stock deal.

The bottom line is that's when you sell your shares for whatever you can get. Here's what will most likely happen with a merger. Musk and the executives and board members who favour Musk will be forced out. Innovation will halt. The other company will put their board members in control. Oh, and you can kiss electrification goodbye. I hope immigration to Mars is up and running by then because I'll want a ticket.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Heavy volume.

 

[Intl Professor]

Yesterday someone questioned my loyalty to Baron's advice by selling out all my TSLA in a Roth IRA and asked if it was prudent. Sale price $906. I wanted today to buy back at $700. Missed the boat and placed a limit order which was filled @ $720. Made 2.66 times my pension per month in one day. Was it prudent? I cannot judge my actions.

 

[anthonyj]

Bought $1,500 and $1,880 strike calls for this Friday. Made disgusting profits so what’s a few hundred bucks in case we see VW/Bitcoin 2.0?

 

[Drax7]

The way the media reports on Tesla today makes it clear they don’t understand sh*t
About the company. It reassures me even more that the trend up will
Resume after this shake out.

 

[Sanny]

So, is it time to buy yet or wait till EOD Friday?

 

[dmckinstry]

Yeah, I deleted it once I re-read it....along the same lines, I hope some people will add solar to their house with some profits. I did that back in '15 with Solar City with my "earnings" back then.

I'm waiting for a solar roof to become available in our area.

 

[lklundin]

Does it have to be this week? MMs can have their Max pain for all I care if we're back to the old growth pattern on Mon.

According to
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
this week's options have put contracts in majority up to and including 900$ - so if anything, MM's should have an incentive to move the SP to just above 900$ for Friday's close. Or no?

 

[SOULPEDL]

With some shame I have to admit I temporarily got shaken out. So yeah, I'm a weak long now. I rode it all the way down from 350 to 178 and kept buying. The lowering of my average price insulated me against the drop last spring.

But the last 20 hours the manipulations, the huge movements and the amounts at stake were getting too much for me. So I cashed out at 760 this morning with a profit op $520k (yep, I know I could have chosen a much better moment as that is near the low).

I will look if I can get back in over the next weeks when things settle down, because I fully believe in the long term prospects of this company. Maybe I'll start writing puts and buying long-term calls, but I first need to switch provider to be able to do that as my current provider does't offer options. Sorry guys for participating in this drop.

Good for you. I just sold 50 myself after reading this, but I'm done selling (and no Options like the one I almost bought yesterday). It brought back last year's drama all over again, and I smell a rat. They don't just give a black eye then wait. I'm thinking either last hour or morning would be the second punch, or maybe Friday?

Sorry people. Been bit like this several times. The broad market is also very HOT and China is on hold (kinda) which is why I sold 50 yesterday at near high (super lucky there).

 

[Fact Checking]

theories on the volume today?

I saw two main waves of selling during the day:

• First wave was new "bubble" shorts, weak longs and profit taking, plus after the 10% circuit breaker, options delta hedging volatility to the downside.
• Second wave came on the exaggerated China deliveries news, possibly concerned medium term investors and S&P 500 index inclusion arbitrageurs: without Q1 profits no S&P 500 inclusion.

The second wave was met by strong buying interest, combined with supportive macro.

 

[steak&chicken]

Bought $1,500 and $1,880 strike calls for this Friday. Made disgusting profits so what’s a few hundred bucks in case we see VW/Bitcoin 2.0?

I'll tattoo anthonyj on my arm if that happens.

 

[capster]

I'm a long term believer in Tesla and would very much like to simply buy and hold for years, but I also recognize that Tesla is an exceptionally volatile stock due to a lot of extrinsic factors including politics, short selling, exuberance etc. That's going to make it a much wilder ride - up and down - that it would be if the stock price was a calm, rational judgement of the companies execution.

That added volatility gives investors a few options, you can:
1) Buy and hold, knowing it's going to be a wild ride
2) Buy and hold while lowering risk with options, but those options have costs that drag on performance; or,
3) Aspire to buy and hold but adjust your position size when the stock price seems to be irrationally low (buying opportunities) or irrationally high (selling opportunities).

The first approach is great if you have the stomach and patience to see it through. The later approach can be called timing the market and is often dismissed, but yet I think here on TMC we do have a good idea of when the stock price is getting irrational. There were times in 2016 and early 2019 when the overall market sentiment was obviously much too negative, and we knew it. I think these past few weeks the stock has gotten too exuberant as identify-able by the same tools (e.g. media coverage). $500 or $600 after some good ER's and years of price suppression by FUD was a reasonable move, but a 50% higher jump to $950 on little further news is getting carried away.

I think this forum does a pretty good job of identifying dips as buying opportunities and folks doing so are generally applauded for doing so, but I think we do a less good job of identifying spikes as selling opportunities. $950 may be lower than the price we expect in a few years, but it's still higher than what the generally accepted price is likely to be in the short-medium term (I think). Thus, while you can ride that out, there is money to be made by selling when the price is irrationally high, just like there is money to be made buying when the price is irrationally low.

I starting buying TSLA in 2014 and then backed the truck up in late 2016 when the share price seemed irrationally low at below $200. Today I think the shares are worth $500 - $600. Over the recent run I sold 1/5th of my shares at each of $420 and $550 because the share price had returned to about where I valued the company, and thus my "irrationally low" shares I had overloaded on could be sold for a fair value. I would have happily held my remaining 3/5ths, but the continued recent run seemed to be getting irrationally exuberant. Thus I sold further 1/5th portions at $650, $750 and $900 to finally clear out my position yesterday.

I very much wanted to buy and hold, but I couldn't justify doing so through what seemed like a period of exuberance. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a lot of positive catalysts until the second half of 2020. Thus, for now I am out but I'll be looking to get back in if the stock returns to what I assess as the fair present value of $500 - $600. I'll probably start buying at $600 and add increments if we dip lower from there. If the stock doesn't hit those prices in the next few months (e.g. my assessment isn't born out) then I may re-enter at higher prices in the mid-year.

For me, Tesla is a simple trade. I have high confidence that it will be an immensely successful company. This judgment is based on extensive personal related experience. So, I bought shares and will continue to hold them.

I read this forum because it interests me. I am not under the illusion that I can time the market. Indeed, I expect that those shaking the stock price around have the acumen and resources to make the short term behavior very unpredictable (That said, I enjoy mocking them, hope they lose everything, and that such a loss might set them on the path to becoming worthwhile human beings).

I don’t bother with options because the kind of thinking required is not my métier and, for me, not worth the opportunity cost.

I aim to develop penetrating insights that allow me to make bold moves early based on limited information. This is a subtle art — the kind of urgency that playing options would introduce to my thinking would unsettle my wa (Wa (Japanese culture) - Wikipedia) and destroy my ability to ‘see around corners.’

Patience, fortitude, and an omnivorous appetite for knowledge together with a synthesist’s mind comprise what ‘superpower’ I may have. This has, on a handful of occasions in my life, yielded insights upon which I have had the nerve and resources to act. This has worked quite well for me.

My idiosyncratic approach works because I know my strengths and the trade offs demanded for their effective use.

Knowing thyself is a learning process. Being true to yourself takes courage and will. Failure to understand where your strengths lie will make you easy prey in the market.

 

[steak&chicken]

I told my wife today, at least we were Tesla millionaire for like half a day. I told her I would try to make it last little longer next time. Maybe we can be Tesla millionaire for two days next time. At least I got the screenshot saved on my phone.

But seriously, my wife and I know it's only matter of time before we pass that mark again. And once we pass it next time, we intend to keep going because we're in Tesla for the long haul.

 

[Rammstein]

So, is it time to buy yet or wait till EOD Friday?

History would tell us end of day Friday. Monday always seems to be a rockstar!

 

[daviddfann]

According to
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
this week's options have put contracts in majority up to and including 900$ - so if anything, MM's should have an incentive to move the SP to just above 900$ for Friday's close. Or no?

Maxpain should be about 750 for the week, whether thats financially better for the market makers than to keep it under 800 we will soon see

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The bottom line is that's when you sell your shares for whatever you can get. Here's what will most likely happen with a merger. Musk and the executives and board members who favour Musk will be forced out. Innovation will halt. The other company will put their board members in control. Oh, and you can kiss electrification goodbye. I hope immigration to Mars is up and running by then because I'll want a ticket.

That would only happen if it were a merger of equals. I think the other board will be who loses seats, but at the same time, I don't see a merger happening either.

 

[jerry33]

For me, Tesla is a simple trade. I have high confidence that it is will be an immensely successful company. This judgment is based on extensive personal related experience. So, I bought shares and will continue to hold them.

This ^^^^. I bought them, I'll hold them. Of course, it helps that my most expensive shares are $299.

 

[woodisgood]

Bought $1,500 and $1,880 strike calls for this Friday. Made disgusting profits so what’s a few hundred bucks in case we see VW/Bitcoin 2.0?

And meanwhile, I literally just bought 2x4s from Home Depot. I kid you not.