gerebgraus
Member
At the end of October, I noticed that IV of LEAPS was well below 40%. I found that to be insanely low and it probably has reflected the fact that for several years prior TSLA was range bounds, so historic volatility was low. Apparently iv was even lower before (?). I have also figured at that time that Tesla has reached the point where it has not merely produced the best premium cars, but it also would become the lowest cost premium car maker. Moreover, the market would soon realize that. So I figured that TSLA will break out from the range bound, and option prices with low IV-s are mispriced.Not sure if we are using the same reference to IV.
I haven't seen TSLA below 40% IV in all its life. Maybe it did dip below from time to time, but I don't recall noticing it. We are currently at about 90%. The day it peaked was 125% or so.
Then I acted on it and a couple of days later I signed up also to this forum. I keep striving to post absolutely accurate negative comments about Tesla that gathers the most disagreements. (Going to seekingalpha to learn negative things about Tesla, no longer works. All TSLAQ articles are either manipulative garbage or clueless.) I feel since TSLAQ does not help us find the problems we have to do it.
To get back to IV: A vlogger who disassembles battery (name? link?) made a youtube video a little bit later presenting his options trading strategy based on the mispriced options with low IV. He bought a bunch of OTM calls and puts. His strategy was correct.
To summarize: Options were mispriced with very low iv-s couple months ago. The higher iv reflects the fact that TSLA became much more volatile. I have no clue whether the current options are priced correctly now or not.