Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

It’s not clear whether they are long or short. But just taking a quick look back at their filings from what I could find on Google paints a pretty interesting picture. It looks like they went over 5% TSLA equity in December 2018. My guess is that was due to covering as TSLA SP was rising in late 2018. Then throughout 2019 they sold the lion’s share of that stake as TSLA cratered (and of course their selling amplified that crater). Then just in the last quarter they had to buy all the way back over 6% of TSLA, presumably to cover again as the SP rose.

These guys are classic quant traders. They idolize star poker players. The head guys sits on the board of Koch’s Cato Institute.

Yikes! They have the means to manipulate, and the motive. If they were making some of the suspiciously timed trades we’ve been seeing, it would be of interest to the Justice Department.

In my time in the brokerage industry, Susquehanna was always viewed as a slimy participant. It would not surprise me in the least if they are the main player in TSLA manipulations. BTW, one of the tools of manipulative short sellers is to maintain a small (compared to their short bets) long position in shares they are shorting for the purpose of selling the stock down when naked shorting on downticks would be too blatant or (like last week), disallowed.

 

[AlexS]

Yeah, I realize that these are the Q4'18 figures, but they had a similar stake in Tesla back then as well, possibly as a hedge for call options written, so I think they might today have a similar options position as well.

it's q3 2019

edit: Q4 2018 they were 14,5 mil shares PUT and 8,4 mil share CALL
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1446194/000144619419000003/xslForm13F_X01/file.XML

 

[Highway2Heel]

It's a shame that Exxon et al don't do more with their Intellectual capital. They've likely been hiring some of the best chemists and scientists for decades. E.g. their scientists could relatively accurately predict global warming the best part of half a century ago.

It's a shame they don't devote some of that capital to battery science, they are in a better position than many to make rapid progress.

They might even save their company.

Case in point...

Pioneers of innovation: The battery that changed the world - Energy Factor

 

[davepsilon]

this is not battery day though right? I cannot imagine them softening the impact of battery day by lumping it in with promoting solar...

What if the initial Tesla battery production is done out of giga buffalo? Then it all makes sense.

 

[KarenRei]

From the Icelandic Tesla FB group: "Teaser: Spennandi dagur uppí Tesla Krókhálsi í dag " -> "Teaser: Exciting day at Tesla Krókháls [the Iceland store] today "

Hmm... I think I better make double-certain that my phone stays charged and maintains a cell connection today

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Smart Europeans: Let's buy TSLA
Dutch People: Let's invest more money in oil

Kind weird though, because the sustainability revolution is going pretty strong over there right now. I wonder if it could've showed up as most traded, because everybody sold their holdings in Shell?

Late response to your question. You are correct: Shell was only the most traded stock in The Netherlands in January because stockholders were fleeing in droves. It dropped about 15% during the month after Shell published disappointing results for the year. In 2018 they had a profit of $21.4 billion, in 2019 $16.5 billion.

 

[Fobble]

These start at 80K , how much do you think would they ask for a full size truck with wasted fuel cell space..

Nikola Corp | NZT

View attachment 509988

Not sure where the picture came from. Here is what I found on Nicola Badger truck. It's a dual "fuel" of battery and hydrogen fuel-cell combined to get 600 miles range. Looks more like traditional ICE truck:

More details:
Nikola teases an electric pickup with 600 miles of range

 

[Dare]

^^^

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Bernstein worries that Tesla's Model Y may cannibalize some Model 3 sales

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi Jr., said that based on precedents, such as the introduction of German luxury SUVs, he worries that the launch of Tesla's Model Y could cannibalize some Model 3 sales. However, he added that the ramp on the domestically manufactured Model 3 in China over 2020 may neutralize the impact on global Model 3 volumes. Still, any softness in Model 3 sales or orders in the U.S. or Europe "could ultimately spook investors near-to-medium term," Sacconaghi tells investors. He maintains a Market Perform rating and $325 price target on Tesla shares.

Read more at:
Bernstein worries that Tesla's Model Y may cannibalize some Model 3 sales TSLA - The Fly

 

[RobStark]

Not sure where the picture came from. Here is what I found on Nicola Badger truck. It's a dual "fuel" of battery and hydrogen fuel-cell combined to get 600 miles range. Looks more like traditional ICE truck:

More details:
Nikola teases an electric pickup with 600 miles of range

Nikola has lots of vaporware.

NZT is their dune buggy/ all terrain vehicle vaporware.

Badger is their full size truck vaporware.

They have American Semi Vaporware.

They have European Lorry Vaporware.

They even have Nikola Jet Ski Vaporware.

Whats next? Nikola Starship Vaporware?

 

[KarenRei]

Nikola has lots of vaporware.

NZT is their dune buggy/ all terrain vehicle vaporware.

Badger is their full size truck vaporware.

They have American Semi Vaporware.

They have European Lorry Vaporware.

They even have Nikola Jet Ski Vaporware.

Whats next? Nikola Starship Vaporware?

But you can make reservations! For free! I have near a hundred reservations under the name Donald Duck, for his business, Fake Company, at their address on Imaginary Lane in Not-A-Real City. I still occasionally get an update letter addressed to Donald Duck.

 

[Fact Checking]

Spoiler: OT: LOL of the day.

 

[jbcarioca]

Oh for real? I didn't know that Ford sold lots of F150s. BRB, buying F.

The Ford F-150 has been the highest selling vehicle of any kind in the US for decades, as of this year, the best selling for 38 years consecutively. That vehicle is the one of the primary reasons why Ford did not go bankrupt with the other US manufacturers. They have huge ongoing profits supplying parts for those generations, and have very high owner loyalty.

For anybody unacquainted with the North American pickup fetish this seems wildly implausible. For those who know that market the Cybertruck suddenly makes perfect sense. The Cybertruck need only conquer ~5% of existing F150 aficionados to be a huge success. Of course the Cybertruck is overtly appealing to a broader audience, or so it seems.

 

[RobStark]

 

[SageBrush]

The Susq hedge fund exposure is very informative.
It puts a damper on speculative call options, and could suggest that they are prepping for another bear raid.

I look forward to more analysis and exposure

 

[Sudre]

OK, now you've got my attention. This is the kind of player that really could manipulate TSLA. They have been making huge swings in the amount of TSLA they've owned over the years, and have very large option interests, including a net put option value of almost 2 billion. It would definitely be worth shining a spotlight on their trading activities.

Here's some info I saw reported about their positions in November (a few month before what was reported in the current filing):

November 14, 2019 - Susquehanna International Group, Llp has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 158,805 shares of Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) with total holdings valued at $38,252,000 USD as of September 30, 2019. Susquehanna International Group, Llp had filed a previous 13F-HR on August 14, 2019 disclosing 28,159 shares of Tesla Motors, Inc. at a value of $6,292,000 USD. This represents a change in shares of -44.65 percent and a change in value of -40.34 percent during the quarter.

Susquehanna International Group, Llp has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (TSLA) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 8,680,600 call options valued at $2,090,896,000 USD and 15,733,900 put options valued at $3,789,825,000 USD .

Just want to point out while this is great information, if anyone thinks this firm is manipulating TSLA the SEC WILL NEVER do ANYTHING about. If they did they would have the President removed and half the Senate in the next election. These are the players that pay for campaigns on local school boards all the way to the top.

 

[RobStark]

The Ford F-150 has been the highest selling vehicle of any kind in the US for decades, as of this year, the best selling for 38 years consecutively. That vehicle is the one of the primary reasons why Ford did not go bankrupt with the other US manufacturers. They have huge ongoing profits supplying parts for those generations, and have very high owner loyalty.

.

At the time GM sold almost as many full size trucks as Ford,it simply split the sales between Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra.

Ford took out massive loans before the financial crisis hit, even putting their Blue Oval logo as collateral for a loan.

GM did not have that foresight, did not have nearly as big rainy day fund and so went bankrupt.

 

[Fobble]

Looks like going to be good overall market at open today:

 

[Don TLR]

Nikola has lots of vaporware.

NZT is their dune buggy/ all terrain vehicle vaporware.

Badger is their full size truck vaporware.

They have American Semi Vaporware.

They have European Lorry Vaporware.

They even have Nikola Jet Ski Vaporware.

Whats next? Nikola Starship Vaporware?

Don't forget their EV Watercraft...

 

[jbcarioca]

Anyone seen this interview?

GM’s director of battery cell engineering: We’re nowhere near the bottom of the price curves - Electrek

Does the GM Battery guy have a clue and/or a chance?

GM’s battery people are also LG’s Michigan group. They do have a good pipeline to the University of Michigan battery research but they seem to lack the li-ion production and materials expertise. Odd miss on their part since Hibar, for example is based in the GTA, quite close to them. To me it is perplexing that they can so consistently miss obvious things in front of them.

That, sadly, is a situation quite common among OEM vehicle makers worldwide.
Rather than cheer because Tesla is so far ahead we should be fearful because BEV adoption worldwide is hampered by their myopia.