Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Rumor of Tesla Brazil Gigafactory Project Approaching by Government

One per continent is needed, rumor makes sense, the rate of scaling is encouraging.

Actually it makes no sense. Elon has said that they will come into an area build out support, i.e. Service Centers, Superchargers, etc., while importing vehicles and then if it shows there is enough demand they will then consider building a Gigafactory there.

Though I guess if Brazil went to Tesla with an offer so rich that Tesla couldn't refuse it might make sense. But I doubt that would happen.

 

[Zaxxon]

So is this what Tobias meant when he said he wanted a new start?! He started a German media company?!

View attachment 512673

Someone definitely didn't think that choice of plate through all the way...

 

[StealthP3D]

I would love to see Tesla now announce that they are paying back their bond debt in cash......or at least 'mostly in cash'. This would create a need for any Bond holders who may have hedged with a naked Short position at recent share price-highs prior to the Cap Raise that expected to cover their naked short with a TSLA share valued in the $650 range to cover by buying shares in the $850 - $880 range and higher.

Are you saying the convertible bonds are callable?

What would be the point in buying convertibles if they were callable?

 

[Mkorpal]

Actually it makes no sense. Elon has said that they will come into an area build out support, i.e. Service Centers, Superchargers, etc., while importing vehicles and then if it shows there is enough demand they will then consider building a Gigafactory there.

Though I guess if Brazil went to Tesla with an offer so rich that Tesla couldn't refuse it might make sense. But I doubt that would happen.

Same. Also, what regional demand is there beyond Brazil? I don’t even know if they currently have sales anywhere on the continent.

 

[shootformoon]

Eastern German people, it is your time to rally against these fake green groups supported by ICE interests in Western Germany. Their message is simply: you can stay being poor and breathe the pollution from the ICE we manufactured.

Why these green group never file lawsuits to stop the operations of ICE manufacturers at the first place? Do they only care about the welfare of trees: after all, the more polluted the air is, the more nutritious it is to trees.

German economy minister warns against delays to Tesla plant

Peter Altmaier, Germany’s economics minister, has warned against delays to the construction of Tesla’s (TSLA) new Gigafactory near Berlin.

In an interview with the Funke Media Group on Tuesday, Altmaier said that the electric-car plant was “of great importance for more climate protection.” He added that it was one of the most important industrial developments planned for eastern Germany in a long time.”

...

A number of business associations joined Altmaier, warning that if the factory did not get built due to severe delays, it would damage Germany’s ability to attract foreign businesses.

The Federal Association of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (BVMW) said that “it would be a catastrophic signal from Germany to foreign investors" if the Tesla project failed because of bureaucracy and overregulation.”

 

[jhm]

Here's another link (no anti-ad-blocker) Jaguar Land Rover reveals secret autonomous Project Vector

The gist seems to be that they have a skateboard suitable for urban usage with essentially no other detail. That leads me to presume that range and speed are both limited which should ease design difficulty. However, there were no indications about:

- safety -- its great to have a skateboard and, sure, the end safety will depend on the overall design. However, while (understandably) popular, the idea of skateboard prevents optimizations. For example, how Tesla integrates the battery pack into the vehicle structure.

- autonomy -- it is hard to believe that they have any meaningful start on autonomy when it has been entirely stealth. Their options would appear to be that it was developed entirely from simulators (which are difficult to leverage past a certain point) or buying from a third party (perhaps mobile eye). In the first case they would be too immature to take seriously and in the later are relegating themselves to building commodity hardware

While interestingly, I don't think it particularly changes the landscape

 

[sparcs]

I kind of don’t want the stock price to go up too fast. I would be fine with 2% a day. I just don’t want to hear from friends and family everyday to sell my stock cause to them it will look like a bubble. Although, I think this latest price rally is showing them it’s not a bubble and TSLA is finding its new price discovery level.

As someone else mentioned a while back. Just tell them you sold. It's really none of their business. The way I look at it, you will be telling them a white lie for their benefit more than your own.

Luckily, i've so far avoided this situation by not actually telling anyone I own shares.

 

[Rammstein]

As someone else mentioned a while back. Just tell them you sold. It's really none of their business. The way I look at it, you will be telling them a white lie for their benefit more than your own.

Luckily, i've so far avoided this situation by not actually telling anyone I own shares.

God they would be wondering about my spending habits.

 

[M3Rider]

Actually it makes no sense. Elon has said that they will come into an area build out support, i.e. Service Centers, Superchargers, etc., while importing vehicles and then if it shows there is enough demand they will then consider building a Gigafactory there.

Though I guess if Brazil went to Tesla with an offer so rich that Tesla couldn't refuse it might make sense. But I doubt that would happen.

Re: demand, you realize by the time they build the factory, the battery/car prices will beat ICE?

Why would there not be a demand if there are cars there? The other infra could also be scaled in 2 years time.

 

[InDaClub]

Someone definitely didn't think that choice of plate through all the way...

I'm surprised the DMV approved that one

 

[anthonyj]

I kind of don’t want the stock price to go up too fast. I would be fine with 2% a day. I just don’t want to hear from friends and family everyday to sell my stock cause to them it will look like a bubble. Although, I think this latest price rally is showing them it’s not a bubble and TSLA is finding its new price discovery level.

Tell them you shorted under their advice, then when it hits $1400 Friday you can yell at them in a rich man's accent

 

[StealthP3D]

One strategy I thought was smart was where a poster mentioned they would get a loan and pay back the loan by selling stocks periodically. That was you can ride the stock appreciation and not say "This Model S cost me 1 million dollars!"

You might have to say "This Model S cost me $1 million" even if you take a car loan out!

I think Tesla likely has over a decade of good growth with EV's energy and solar. And who knows what else they might eventually expand into.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think there are any shorts left to nuke from orbit. The SP ran from $180 to $960 at the peak. Outside of Chanos, every big name short we know of is out and all the retail shorts are long gone. And the rumor is Chanos's remaining short position is a mere 2% of his portfolio now, he's just keeping a token amount to prevent himself from having to admit defeat.

Have you ever heard of a new short position? Most shorts didn't lose 100% of their assets and I'm sure some of them tried to recoup their losses by...shorting Tesla at a higher price!

 

[StealthP3D]

Do we know what the latest short interest is?

No. It's always delayed (by a lot).

 

[JRP3]

https://electrek.co/2020/02/18/tesl...ron-phosphate-batteries-report/#disqus_thread

What is the informed opinion this comment?:-



My thoughts are the room is not quite enough to make a battery of the same size and it will be heavier, so the resulting car would have a shorter range.... But technically, I think it might work in spite of that compromise... the price should be lower..

So probably no .... but I'm a bit on the fence here....

That's basically what I laid out earlier today in this thread. There should be room for a standard range LiFePO4 pack, providing greater cycle life and faster charge/regen rates. They couldn't do a long range pack with that chemistry, unless there is some unannounced density advance.

There is also this- CATL Breaks Into 300+ Wh/kg Energy Density On Battery Cell Level
and this:-CATL considers US plant, targets 45 percent energy-density boost in 5 years

So perhaps CATL has a few tweaks that can give higher energy density...

That's their NMC/NCM chemistry not LiFePO4.

 

[jhm]

View attachment 512593

Nice chart. Accordingly, I am most comfortable as a Knife Catcher. I aspire to be a Bottom Feeder though.

 

[killianss]

Literally, everyone on this board who owns 100 shares could retire if TSLA went up 2%/day for one year. For grins let's say there are 250 trading days in a year (52X5=260 minus some holidays).

If you own 100 share of TSLA...

100*858.40*1.02^250=...get ready for it...$12,126,421

Amen.. and i'd also get my roadster too!

 

[Ameliorate]

Well, finally caught up.
re- @StealthP3D I've always thought Tesla was a good buy, I wouldn't be all in on one stock for the past 5+ years if I thought otherwise. Relatively, you're kinda new here <3 (and quite welcome, tbh I would've done much better if I was on MSFT too then came over when you did)
For me however, the confirmation of these events unfolding does help immensely, the Y the truck, giga shanghai. Hitting the yearly production target, all these things gave credit to a CEO who was renowned for being overly aggressive and late on targets and nobody would believe them. We know they were internal targets but the world didn't. Not everything said did get done either, pretty sure Autopilot was supposed to do a cross country trip on it's own end of 2019, I don't fault them for that at all but just saying nothing is certain.

Yes the high SP gives a lot of conviction to my theories in earlier times however, I give a lot of value to these items for the future looking brighter now than June did:

Elon's credibility
Relationships with governments, Trump/China
improved credit ratings (soon?)
Tesla putting in writing that they expect to be profitable going forward !!
Way more cash on hand
Tesla gets the suppliers they want, and therefor all the battery supply
Easier to hire employees when a growing company offers stock awards, harder when the price waffles between 180-380 forever. See Grohmann refusing shares wanting cash instead (silly engineers!)
Competition is well, that's not even the right word any more.
Using tech analysts to understand the company opposed to Auto.
GENERAL SENTIMENT, may be the biggest of all. Sure the rise was eventually expected for you and I but this brought the company into the spotlight for millions and millions of people. This helps demand for cars, demand for roofs, demand for shares, again reducing the need for advertising. I think it's wonderful, the more people that learn they can expedite the transition to a greener world the better.
To reiterate, I created this account after lurking for a year+ to fight FUD, it was everywhere. Now? the weather's pretty nice in Longville.

These are solid accomplishments and very much deserve to be celebrated.
And that doesn't mean I think the stock is more likely to go up 400% from here in 6 months than it was from 180. I do think it means we will have less pullbacks or at least much less dramatic pullbacks in the SP. 960 to 650 was not as bad as we've been through.... and turbulence is expected right now. I'm used to the drop 50% in 3 days then take 8 months to recover situation.

This list is probably 20 bullets too short. I believe there's a reason everyone is piling on now, and not back in June, Tesla now feels like a safe place to park your money for the average investor/institution for a solid decade or two. Before it was just for the informed and the risk takers. My timing sucked, missed 2013 and bought TSLA while the all the tech stocks went wild. Any of you pre 2013 buyers, you're all just mad risk takers, and we love you.

We're clearly on the same team, I'm just trying to make sense of the rally as to determine my next move.
Which isn't a question of in or out, but how much leverage.
In....hodling, bullish af last 5 years. Honestly I thought you guys and gals were more bullish, not seeing a lot of 100x 's

 

[sparcs]

Rumor of Tesla Brazil Gigafactory Project Approaching by Government

One per continent is needed, rumor makes sense, the rate of scaling is encouraging.

Also hoping for one in Texas and another one in China in the not-so-distant future. AUS next in line?

This sounds like the same thing that the Indian government did in 2015. Nothing came of it.

Indian Prime Minister tours Tesla, talks batteries with Elon Musk

 

[jhm]

@DaveT made a good point -
ARK does not have to make the most money for their shareholders - else if they hold 100% TSLA, then everyone will dump ARK and buy TSLA instead.

They need to earn fees from managing money, so they have to find other less wonderful companies to show their hard work.

Cathie just made a ton of money for herself from TSLA calls in her personal account.

So. It all makes perfect sense.

If you're looking for a balanced portfolio consider the following:

50% ARK
50% TSLA

Just kidding. Here's a better one:

30% TSLA cash in
70% TSLA gains