Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

This is so simple. The carriers are the responsible ones. They know the devices are in moving vehicles and they can act on that knowledge but they don't. They are responsible IMO and have been for these thousands of deaths related to distracted driving.

I disagree, but it might also be that we really do agree and are expressing ourselves differently around the point.

"This is so simple. The carriers are the responsible ones."

One reading of that simple and direct statement is that you hold the carriers responsible, while holding blameless the phone owners that are using the phones while driving. Is that an accurate or inaccurate reading of your statement?


To me it's equally simple - car drivers are responsible for their actions while driving. Anything and everything they do that distracts them from the driving task while they are driving, and the consequences that arise from that - the driver is responsible. That includes phones, drinking alcohol, squalling children they're paying attention to instead of the road, pet(s) wandering around the car getting in the way of the driving task, having an argument with somebody, ... Anything and everything.

At the extreme, the driver is making a choice to pull over and do the distracting thing instead or to continue driving.

It's that simple to me.


I agree that there is opportunity here for carriers, app developers, and or phone manufacturers to offer phone users a mechanism for technology to help. The furthest I'd go is that possibly there is joint responsibility between the phone user and the carrier.

But I also subscribe to a principle from work that translates here pretty well. At work, a task owned by 2 (or more people) is a task owned by nobody, and is doomed to not be done.

In this case, I tend to think that split responsibility is a different way of saying no responsibility for anybody.

So with single responsibility, if you're really calling for the carrier to be responsible, what I hear is that you are equally strongly calling for zero responsibility for the phone owner / user.


Are you claiming the phone user is not responsible?

 

[dl003]

Wow... that last bit was actually not too bad if you read properly between the lines. So the speaker states the fact that the driver knew the car swerved towards the gore point since the driver reported it multiple times. Still, however, the driver chose to play his phone games while the car drove thru this area.... so basically he just stated the driver was a complete moron and would have died weeks earlier if not for the system keeping him alive in multiple areas while driving on the highway. That sounds more like an argument for MORE autonomous systems not less.

His opinion from my perspective:
Cell phones are addictive.
Cell phone manufacturers are doing nothing to prevent cell phone use.
Humans can not multi-task.
We need more automation to keep people alive.

Where are their stats of how many cell phone related accidents there are per hour on our highways because I will bet you the stats are per hour in this country (and all others)? This would give them perspective on what is safe and unsafe? Without this information there entire hearing is pointless. There is no point of comparison.

Cars with Level 2 driver assist = one death a year? (less?)
Cars without???? hmmm.... mysteriously they seem to be lacking some really important information. Why are none of the commentators asking this very important question?

And yes it should probably be based on miles driven but still no mater how you slice it WE DON"T KNOW because the NTSB has not done their job. They are making recommendations with out information.

Yes, I have noticed. What kind of moron would you have to be to let the car take full control after repeatedly reporting a grave issue around the same location? No amount of safeguard could protect people from gaming the system. People will always find their way around and defeat protective devices to engage in stupid activities. Very reminiscent of the guy who let his 16yo kid drive a MS after the kid got a ticket for speeding 115 in a 35 mile zone in the same MS. The kid then crashed the car at 110 mph, killing himself and a friend. Parents of course blamed Tesla. People are just not responsible anymore.

 

[jerry33]

Hmm, I have the Iphone 11, and to date don't remember ever getting the 'are you driving' alert. It easily unlocks with face ID, whether I am driving or in passenger seat.

You have to enable the driving setting in the do not disturb section, then it will alert you every time it thinks you might be driving.

 

[woodisgood]

once you look at the name of the author of the article, it makes sense though. Fearmongering about Tesla is Kolodny's default position.

The entire point of the CNBC "documentary" was to paint Kolodny/Neidermeyer as "official" narrators of the Tesla story, so that hit pieces have greater impact in the future.

 

[Earlian]

Macros are looking worse by the minute from here in Europe. Even though this virus is mild I predict the effects on the economy are not so mild. Media in the Netherlands are spending a lot of time reporting on corona related news. They’re even naming it the corona crisis now as they are reporting on electronics retailers having shortages.

Well, then imagine how germans do over here nowadays, with german angst?

Relax and take some good data against that: Coronavirus Update (Live): 80,422 Cases and 2,711 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

To compare that to reality:

Worldwide:

We have a total number of death: 2.711 since the outbreak!

In the same period we had a total number of deaths in a car accident of*: 203.056 !

But the people feel safe when they drive, because the enemy is a virus.



*Crunching the 2018 wikipedia numbers of 1.323.666 car deaths in 2018 into 56 days (Jan-Feb 25th)

 

[Unpilot]

Need a few more fingers in the dam...she's threatening to break.

 

[Singuy]

That last bit is untrue. AP does have rules to prevent use in inappropriate places.

The take of the media seems to be ok. Seeing "industry and tesla slammed" and "apple slammed" or "guy was playing video games on his phone". CNBC is probably the harshest.

IMO he was angling towards the "it makes people complacent which is a problem" line of reasoning with those comments. ​

1.6 million crashes/year in the U.S(1 in 4 crashes) are caused by cellphone usage per year in the U.S. I feel like people are complacent already.

So the level of argument is stupid. You need some REAL data to argue your point or else it's just an opinion. Calculate how much more likely people will be on their phone using autopilot vs baseline. Then use 1.6 million crashes as your control, and calculate how many Tesla cars on autopilot there are and calculate the number of deaths related to cell phone usage.

Currently cell phone usage crash rate is sitting at 0.5% of all cars registered on the road.
If there are 2 autopilot crashes due to cell phone usage reported in 2018, then we are talking about 0.001%of total fleet of Teslas

So you most likely be arguing against safety

 

[davecolene0606]

The NTSB presentation is reminiscent of CR's initial eval of the autopilot system. Old close minded people terrified of losing control or adapting behavior to use a new tool to enhance their lives.

As to cellphone use, has any ever heard of a study that compares driver distraction from talking to a passenger vs talking on a cellphone?

Also, they kept brushing over the fact that the only reason they had the data from these crashes was because... well... Tesla. All they could do was whine that they had to ask Tesla for the data as they don't own the right software to "decode it"

One more thing, there were only glancing references to the fact that only Tesla can and is updating its system constantly magically over the air and its bug reporting system was ridiculed and they then went to question how anyone can report.... oh yea in writing to NHTSA. (they really got it out for them, don't they)

How many of these folks are connected in any way to any entity having an interest in slowing Tesla down (yes I am questioning their integrity not only from their words, but, their demeanor and smug contrived questioning. The did not even try to hide their utter contempt for Tesla.

In conclusion, we learned that people suck and our driver licensing system is a joke and our government oversight is so far behind the technology curve as to be pathetic.

One more thing, how is it we missed this hearing thing until today????

Rant over

aahhh, I feel better now...

Thanx folks

Fire Away!
(It's the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[oldTAVguy]

supported Tesla twice 795.1 and 800.58

 

[replicant]

 

[Swampgator]

Machine learning algorithms can definitely tell pretty accurately if a phone is in a moving vehicle. (I have worked on this problem). However the key issue is being able to tell if is the driver using the phone, versus a passenger.

Or to tell if the phone is in a car, vs. a bus/subway/train where of course people would like to be able to use their phones.

You aren't going to get some software ban on phone usage in vehicle until you can very accurately tell it is a car driver and not all the other conditions.

You could do this on a Tesla though. Example: I enter my car with my phone key. My wife and kids enter at the same time. The Tesla asks me which key is driving in case both enter car at same time. If it's me, then the Tesla app locks the screen on my phone while the car is moving.

 

[Swampgator]

You could do this on a Tesla though. Example: I enter my car with my phone key. My wife and kids enter at the same time. The Tesla asks me which key is driving in case both enter car at same time. If it's me, then the Tesla app locks the screen on my phone while the car is moving.

I'm not saying Tesla was at fault for Walter's death, only that this is a solvable problem in a Tesla at least.

 

[Todd Burch]

Long story short:

Lots of blame on cell phone manufacturers, car manufacturers, etc ...instead of the guy sitting in front of the window that could have seen the situation right in front of him. Adults are adults. They should be responsible for their actions. It's a shame society has begun to point fingers at everyone except the one that's truly and solely responsible.

 

[printf42]

Ban all video games. Is that the way to avoid misuse?

Ban unlocked cell phones in the car, no matter it belongs to the driver or not.

Or:

Cellphones have to be locked in the truck, with batteries taken out and stored separately.

Come on, let’s do it...

/s

 

[JusRelax]

Ban unlocked cell phones in the car, no matter it belongs to the driver or not.

Or:

Cellphones have to be locked in the truck, with batteries taken out and stored separately.

Come on, let’s do it...

Ugh... I can imagine the headlines if this were to happen:

"Tesla's autopilot failure causes cell phones to be banned in all vehicles"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only response I can see to this from Tesla's side would be to break ground on at least one new GF every single year going forwards - this implies expansion of existing GF's too in order to keep up with the demand.

I don't think Tesla plans to scale production linearly, I believe Elon is thinking exponentially: in 2019 Tesla had 1 GF underconstruction, taking about a year to 1st production. Then:

• In 2020/21, Tesla will build 3 GFs (for a total of 5)
  • GF3/Shanghai Ph2 (Model Y)
    
  • GF4/Berlin Ph1 (Model Y)
    
  • GF5/Texas (Cyberfactory)
• In 2021/22, I expect 2 more GFs (for a total of 7)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph2 (Model 3)
    
  • 1 in China (1st World Car a.k.a. "Model 1")
• In 2022/23, I expect 3 more GFs (for a total of 10)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph3 (Model 2)
  • 2 more in China (incl'd GF6 site?)
• In 2023/24, I expect 4 more GFs (for a total of 14)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph4 (EuroSemi?)
  • 3 in China (1 each at 3 Chinese GF sites?)
• In 2024/25, working cash flow allows up to 7 more GFs to bring the total over 20 (placed as needed; capacity reaches 10-20M veh/year). Sites could include Brazil, India, Japan as desired
• Note: TE owns W.Australia by 2030; pays in Cash

The key is exponential growth in working capital to fund these new projects from the previous round of production expansions. My simple rule of thumb is that every 2 operating GFs funds the annual construction of 1 more.

Look out SP, come 2026. Once Tesla is no longer pouring all its working capital into growth, some of that excess can go in share buybacks. This is why my personal investment horizon goes out to at least 2027. Might sell a few, but will reevaluate then. Autonomy is a real wild card, one which should be coming into focus by then.

The Shortzes better pray they've ducked'n'covered by that day. Personally, I hope they stick it around for their bitter end. Hey, I don't even subscribe to Comedy Central anymore; why would you when there's CNBC...

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Quite the Battle for 800 today.

 

[lklundin]

TwTimez on Twitter
Something to look at whilst you're listening to NSTB.

For the many days where I have nothing to trade with, it's about is useful as the TSLA stock ticker...

 

[Nocturnal]

1.6 million crashes/year in the U.S(1 in 4 crashes) are caused by cellphone usage per year in the U.S. I feel like people are complacent already.

So the level of argument is stupid. You need some REAL data to argue your point or else it's just an opinion. Calculate how much more likely people will be on their phone using autopilot vs baseline. Then use 1.6 million crashes as your control, and calculate how many Tesla cars on autopilot there are and calculate the number of deaths related to cell phone usage.

Currently cell phone usage crash rate is sitting at 0.5% of all cars registered on the road.
If there are 2 autopilot crashes due to cell phone usage reported in 2018, then we are talking about 0.001%of total fleet of Teslas

So you most likely be arguing against safety

I believe people are complacent with regular HUMAN driving at this point, which is why texting or even other more egregious behaviors are so common.

 

[Sudre]

IMO he was angling towards the "it makes people complacent which is a problem" line of reasoning with those comments. ​

Which was my point about properly reading between the lines. Actual humans that know how to do their jobs know people will always be distracted and phones, DVD players, make-up, children...... they are all ever expanding distractions that no law will ever get rid of so more automation is needed because everyone becomes complacent while driving. Some just more than others. There are thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cell phone related auto accidents on the roads. People ARE complacent. The only thing the NTSB cares about is if it is automated or not.

They are going on about the crash attenuator right now. They have not ask the question, "How many automated deaths in general have there been (Tesla automated or not) from hitting this attenuator?" They refuse to ask that question. Thousands of Tesla's pass right on by that attenuator... probably daily. How many ran into it? So we do not need there recommendation at all. actually from what I am hearing the government needs to dissolve the NTSB because NO ONE is responding to their recommendations. They are a complete waist of money.... they better be "disturbed". Time to write Trump...LOL