StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Add a Cybertruck and you've got a straight flush!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Add a Cybertruck and you've got a straight flush!
Not in the correct sequence of S3XY, but still beautiful!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There's a bit of a relief rally in European markets right now, Nasdaq futures, after an overnight fall have roughly recovered to where they ended on yesterday's close.
The Moody's cut in 2020 car sales outlook was probably also weighing on TSLA yesterday:
Moody's cuts 2020 auto sales global outlook on coronavirus impact
"The agency said it expects global auto sales to fall 2.5% in 2020, lower than its previous estimate of about 0.9% drop."
"The agency said it expects global auto sales to fall 2.5% in 2020, lower than its previous estimate of about 0.9% drop."
I believe Q1 deliveries might falsify that notion in the case of Tesla. I agree with @traxila that most of the big players on Nasdaq probably have short term short positions and are in no hurry to buy the dip right now.
In any case things can change quickly.
Do you imply you have no confidence in MMs bringing us back to 800?
Jokes aside, with all the incredible news we have had in the last couple of days (Y deliveries, Q1 deliveries looking great, rumors on batteries...), it will be interesting to see what happens by end of week. Probably down again
...because markets are rational as much as people thinking about this virus..
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
After the latest overnight run, here is the SimplyWall.st "Intrinsic Value" calculation for TSLA as of Wed, Feb 26, 2020: (based on discounted 5-yr cash flows)
Cheers!
Share Price vs. Fair Value
- Below Fair Value: TSLA ($799.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($943.58)
- Significantly Below Fair Value: TSLA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount (17.5% Undervalued)
Cheers!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Norway is sold out for Q1 as well, May delivery for the Model 3/S/X, with the country set to Norway and Chrome-Translate:
I believe all European markets are now sold out for Q1.
#TeslaDemandProblems
#TeslaQ1WillBeAwful
I believe all European markets are now sold out for Q1.
#TeslaDemandProblems
#TeslaQ1WillBeAwful
Singer3000
Member
This thread has brought me much insight and entertainment over the years but I’ll be signing off from it for a while, due to the wholly inappropriate policy of the mods in preventing any discussion at all of the single greatest stock price driver right now.
Meanwhile mods are perfectly happy to allow endless discussions of aggressive options strategies, which are outright dangerous to inexperienced eyes and ears.
By forcing negative market drivers into sub forums and pushing get rich quick schemes in this thread, they are creating a particularly dangerous environment for inexperienced retail investors.
No doubt this post too will get deleted, feel free to delete my other 600-700 odd while you’re at it, at least some of which I hope have been helpful to some.
Meanwhile mods are perfectly happy to allow endless discussions of aggressive options strategies, which are outright dangerous to inexperienced eyes and ears.
By forcing negative market drivers into sub forums and pushing get rich quick schemes in this thread, they are creating a particularly dangerous environment for inexperienced retail investors.
No doubt this post too will get deleted, feel free to delete my other 600-700 odd while you’re at it, at least some of which I hope have been helpful to some.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There's a lot of disinformation about the coronavirus right now - I've seen regular TMC posters posit that the coronavirus has a 2-3% mortality rate, while in reality it's probably below 1% - maybe as low as 0.5% in countries with good health care systems.
I had my coronavirus corrective comments deleted as well, so the policy is consistently enforced. There's a coronavirus thread.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I do regularly point out how dangerous they are, and that current Tesla options Implied Volatility for 1 week or farther out series is still very, very high - i.e. it takes a lot of price movement to even break even.
Half of the posters also refer to options as 'lottery tickets', which they are.
The stock is up some 400% since the bottom last spring. In today's market, where there is a lot of uncertainty taking profit might be wise.
This does not mean that I dont think it will be higher in the coming years, it's just that nobody knows how deep it will dip this time. Its also been 11+ years since the last real crash in the stock market, a new one is overdue based on history.
This does not mean that I dont think it will be higher in the coming years, it's just that nobody knows how deep it will dip this time. Its also been 11+ years since the last real crash in the stock market, a new one is overdue based on history.
I try to understand the options market as best I can in order to ascertain the overall market and TSLA in particular. Posts by Fact Checking, KarenRei, Artful Dodger, etc are invaluable in this pursuit. (thank you)
I might joke about "calling in rich" but I've been around long enough to know that there's no free lunch or get rich quick scheme to be had in most cases. It's a slog to get there, but I'm confident it will happen. I prefer to invest in common stock only and with my own cash because I feel it's the safest way for my particular situation. I'm still way bullish on this company and I'm excited about the future despite the volatility.
I might joke about "calling in rich" but I've been around long enough to know that there's no free lunch or get rich quick scheme to be had in most cases. It's a slog to get there, but I'm confident it will happen. I prefer to invest in common stock only and with my own cash because I feel it's the safest way for my particular situation. I'm still way bullish on this company and I'm excited about the future despite the volatility.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
When Tesla signed the 100-day promise to deliver the 'big-battery' in S. Australia (the Hornsdale Power Reserve), Tesla arranged with Samsung SDI to provide all the 2170 cells used in the project. None came from GF1/Sparks, nor were any Panasonic 2170 cells diverted away from Model 3 production.
The Moss Landing Project has been in the approval process since last fall. There has been plenty of time for Tesla to arrange for the 1 GWh of battery cells required by the end of 2020 (the scheduled completetion time of Tesla's Moss Landing project).
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You are not making sense. If you think it will be higher in the coming years, and you are in for the long haul, why would you sell and pay taxes on your gains just because it MIGHT dip between now and then. Why would you even care if it dipped between now and then (assuming you are not margined to the hilt)?
You cannot time stock market crashes "based on history". There is too much variability between stock market crashes for past crashes to have ANY predictive value as to when the next one might happen. Your comments sound like what someone might say if they were trying to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. Mostly because you don't bring any valid ammunition to the table.
I've ridden a number of stock crashes out and they are not a problem as long as you don't sell on the way to the bottom. If there was a crash, imagine how strong TSLA would power out of it. It would likely be one of the first to recover based on how many people want a piece of it but want a deal.
History is a very tricky thing as it has no ability to forecast the future. The probability of a rise or fall can simply not be computed, otherwise everybody would be living on islands...The run up from 20010 to 2014 has taught me a tough lesson: DO NOT SELL. All these sales I did collecting a 100% of profit seemed really a clever idea, until time proved otherwise. I had to buy all these shares back at a higher price. Why: Because the sharp upticks happened always unexpected and with huge magnitude. You do simply not know when the Battery Day announcement will be priced in (I expect a move above 1'000). Could happen soon, or not. But one thing is for sure, (as of now). All the major crashes have recovered with time (historically speaking). By staying long, you are on the safe side. Play the volatility with options and such. There is a ton of dedicated threads..
of course, not advice
and of course Stealth beat me to it
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