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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The Coronapocalypse might be happening in the US right now but at least stocks are up again!

Yeah, I'm not letting go of these SPY puts. The economic and social shock hasn't even started in the US yet. If they go to zero, I'll be happy. If they go to 1000%, I'll still be happy.
 
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Been meaning to get out of RH. The fact you can’t have joint accounts or name beneficiaries is a real problem.

For me Robinhood is disqualified simply because they deem it necessary to have this page:
Robinhood Status

Last week I complained about technical issue with interactivebrokers.com - since then it has been working well and I am starting to explore its plethora of trading functionality.
 
At the small German market maker Lang & Schwarz Tesla is now trading at +32.4€ (695€) compared to yesterday's close.

Frankfurt will open in a few minutes.

According to Google, that's $773.98 USD, a few dollars higher than aftermarket trading close. There appears to be continuing buying pressure. I hope it's caused by people figuring out that Tesla is fully charged (I was going to say "running on all cylinders" but I think that's a phrase that should probably be retired) as opposed to big market players jerking us around for their own short term goals.

While I'm confident Q1 results will be unexpectedly strong, and even more confident of Tesla's long-term trajectory upwards, I'm less confident in the very short-term action. Be prepared for unexpected volatility (both up and down). This is just a gut feeling brought about mostly by the Coronavirus causing a lot of market activity in and out of various positions and general chaos which could create opportunities for market manipulators to harness for their own quick profit. More likely it's real strength (a lot more people wanting TSLA in their portfolios). As a long-term buy/hold investor with no open options, I don't have to worry about it one way or the other.:)
 
According to Google, that's $773.98 USD, a few dollars higher than aftermarket trading close. There appears to be continuing buying pressure. I hope it's caused by people figuring out that Tesla is fully charged (I was going to say "running on all cylinders" but I think that's a phrase that should probably be retired) as opposed to big market players jerking us around for their own short term goals.

While I'm confident Q1 results will be unexpectedly strong, and even more confident of Tesla's long-term trajectory upwards, I'm less confident in the very short-term action. Be prepared for unexpected volatility (both up and down). This is just a gut feeling brought about mostly by the Coronavirus causing a lot of market activity in and out of various positions and general chaos which could create opportunities for market manipulators to harness for their own quick profit. More likely it's real strength (a lot more people wanting TSLA in their portfolios). As a long-term buy/hold investor with no open options, I don't have to worry about it one way or the other.:)

With Frankfurt and other EU market makers now open, TSLA is trading at 715€ (796$), up 7.15%
 
Re: MCU Upgrade

Adding my $.02 as we’re also shareholders: We will be performing this $2500 MCU retrofit on our 2017 S100D as soon as it’s available. We use our rear facing seats all the time and I love opening the sunroof. Both of those options are gone now. We’re very happy with the range and deep down, my smugness over free supercharging can’t be denied, a new S 100D is just not in the cards.

We also prepaid for FSD when we ordered in 2017 and while I know there isn’t much divergence currently, I’ve wanted dashcam and sentrymode. Being able to throw on YouTube for the kids will also be a nice plus.

Since we planned to hang onto this car for a while, I feel like this is a fabulous upgrade at a reasonable price. A 2-channel dashcam plus installation isn’t cheap and the matrix seems to indicate this will enable recording for all cameras.

Relevance to investor thread: How many “like me” owners are out there? Obviously doing the MCU upgrade at the same time as their obligated AP3 upgrade saves SOME tech time, but they already charge $2500 to do MCU upgrades for folks with broken MCUs out of warranty, so...

$2500 plus $2500 prepaid FSD minus shop time minus MCU cost minus AP3 chip cost times number of folks who will opt for this = ???

I think my MX was built in October 2016, it's one of the very first AP2 cars. I have FSD, so expect to get the HW3 at some point and will get the PCU upgrade if I can. I'm not really interested in the games or video streaming, but the dash cam, sentry mode and better performance is worth the money.

Edit: I should add that the lease on my MX runs until September 2020, at which time I plan to buy the car for the residual value and then lease Model Y for the wife, looking fro a short term 2 year on that. In any case, likely to be ruling this car for around 4 years until I decide whether to get a Cybertruck, R2 or MS Plaid, ergo worth the small investment on it.
 
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I think my MX was built in October 2016, it's one of the very first AP2 cars. I have FSD, so expect to get the HW3 at some point and will get the PCU upgrade if I can. I'm not really interested in the games or video streaming, but the dash cam, sentry mode and better performance is worth the money.

Edit: I should add that the lease on my MX runs until September 2020, at which time I plan to buy the car for the residual value and then lease Model Y for the wife, looking fro a short term 2 year on that. In any case, likely to be ruling this car for around 4 years until I decide whether to get a Cybertruck, R2 or MS Plaid, ergo worth the small investment on it.

Every time I come here, you are drinking another bottle of the same beer....
Is that brewery listed on an exchange? .... asking for a friend :)
 
An "uptick" is any sale ABOVE THE CURRENT NATIONAL BEST BID - thus any ASK which does not cross the market. It does not need to be a price higher than the last sale.

But I do now see that illegally shorting to the bid can drop the price leaving room for a legal short posting of a lower ask.

We still have no evidence that any shorting (exampt or otherwise) was done at the bid.

(Emphasis added.)

Maybe you want to check your dictionary, but mine says that "above" implies "not at, not equal". I.e. shorts must not post into the spread or at the boundary of the current spread. They can post 1 cent above it: $0.01 is the minimum tick on Nasdaq.

I.e. shorts are only able to post above the current bid. If there's buying pressure they have to yield 1 cent by 1 cent and cannot stop it or reverse it, only slow it. If their sell limit order becomes the best bid, they must not increase its size but must post a new one at least $0.01 above the current best bid.

Which is how a rational bearish investor would prefer to reduce their their stake and sell shares.

If the "price" is at 660, and the illegal short sale takes place at $650 that would mean that the bid was at $650. Illegally short selling to the bid creates a down tick and perhaps makes the new bid lower still. It certainly will not raise the bid to $651, but it may allow another short to post a lower ask if the bid did drop. On the other hand if the short seller legally posted a $650.0001 ask such that the spread was $0.0001, chances are someone would fill it and this would be a legal "uptick". Another short seller could then put an ask at $651 and wait for someone to buy it which they could also have done if the other short seller didn't exist.

I've actually seen what looked like sell limit orders posted a full 10 dollars below the national best bid during the infamous -$100 flash-crash from $969.

The mechanics are really simple, and I'm at loss why you don't see it: by posting aggressive limit orders below the best bid, using the unlimited liquidity they have in creating short TSLA shares out of thin air, Nasdaq market makers can drain and reverse pretty much any buy side liquidity which must have the actual hard cash lined up within 2 days, not "borrowed shares within 13 trading days, otherwise never mind".

Compare the two scenarios:
  • Anyone manipulating on the buy side to the tune of 3 million shares bought within a short period of time must line up $2.4b of buying power and $2.4b of cash within two days (T+2).
  • Market makers manipulating the price on the short side to the tune of 3 million shares to trigger a flash-crash don't have to line up any additional financial assets, there's literally zero technological limits on creating short shares out of thin air. By being trusted "market makers" Nasdaq grants various large hedge funds all the TSLA-bearish investment banks the privilege to be "TSLA share makers" as well - which ability should in reality rest with Tesla Inc. alone. They can, within a single millisecond, post sell limit orders with huge sizes that no buy side liquidity will resist, and can use an aggressive step-down in the bid to create pretty much any price action they think isn't too blatant. Later on, within 13 trading days, they either must come up with the borrowed shares, or if they close the short position at lower prices and at a profit, they can just forget about it ever having happened, and keep the money they stole from investors.
Yes, it's that bad, and I fully share @Hock1's and @Artful Dodger's concern in this regard.

During the uptick rule it's a tiny bit more difficult to mark down the price: except that market makers can tag their short sales as 'short sale exempt' (they are only benign entities creating liquidity on the market) and can execute them just fine. @Artful Dodger has correlated a suspicious increase in "exempt" transactions - right when there was a bigger bear raid against Tesla - and 12 trading days later (just a single day before the very lax T+13 deadline passed), as it happens there's another bear raid that allowed them to close those positions at a profit.

And yes, the SEC has all the tools and information at their disposal to trivially prove investigate whether this happened or not, simply by mapping the whole-firm exposure of Nasdaq market makers both in the equities and in the options space. Turns out there's another loophole here: many strategies of being positioned short in derivatives does not mark firms as "short" as per the SEC definition, so they wouldn't even have to be marked as a 'short sale'...

If they gave me access to their systems I could probably figure it out within 24 hours. :D
 
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Saw this posted on r/Teslamotors. Says Model 3 deliveries in China have stopped due to HW2.5 being found in some vehicles when HW3.0 is listed on their version of the monroney sticker. Not sure how much validity there is to it but might be something the bears jump on.

Tesla China stops all model 3 deliveries : teslamotors
Can't copy the FSD computer chip if you don't have one! Good move by Tesla

Seems harsh to stop deliveries due to this. If you don't include FSD in your purchase then 2.5hw is the same. Tesla has proven to be able to retrofit these, they can probably change the monroney stickers to 2.5 on nonFSD cars and continue selling as is. China might not like this though. We'll see how it plays out, probably will get more coverage than it deserves.
 
Can't copy the FSD computer chip if you don't have one! Good move by Tesla

I don't think Tesla is worried about Chinese companies copying their entire chip by getting physical access to it - it's incredibly difficult to do with today's wafer technologies (chip features are very small and hard to scan even for legitimate research and reverse engineering purposes), and by the time they are done Tesla is out with HW4 or maybe even HW5. ;)

BTW., you can get a HW3 module in the US from scrapped cars, for a few thousand dollars, @verygreen has such a HW3 module. So if the "Chinese" had any such intention there's ready access to it.

Seems harsh to stop deliveries due to this. If you don't include FSD in your purchase then 2.5hw is the same. Tesla has proven to be able to retrofit these, they can probably change the monroney stickers to 2.5 on nonFSD cars and continue selling as is. China might not like this though. We'll see how it plays out, probably will get more coverage than it deserves.

Firstly, I've read the translation of the Chinese article, and it's very FUD-dish, so I'd treat it with quite a bit of caution. It tries to stir up controversy without bothering to mention that HW2.5 and HW3.0 only makes a difference if the owner has purchased the FSD option - which few have done in China, and that all HW 2.5 will get a free upgrade to HW 3.0 if they do purchase the FSD option later on.

BTW., I'd like to not that FUD articles are popping up in the final month of the Q1 delivery push with clockwork accuracy. ;)

The article also does not cite any sources of Tesla "stopping" the shipping of Model 3's. Even assuming the report is true, which it might not be, this was done by Tesla China voluntarily to investigate and take an official position later today or tomorrow.

Take-rate of the FSD option is apparently pretty low in China, so it wouldn't affect most customers.

BTW., I believe one factor behind Tesla designing their own HW3 chip, beyond the performance and power use advantages, was that it would make it much more difficult for competitors to copy, than an AI running on off-the-shelf Nvidia hardware.
 
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Here is the conclusion (in text format) of the Li-on battery presentation given by Dr. Jeff Dahn at UBC, then uploaded to YouTube in Feb 2020:

Conclusions:

"Long lifetime Li-ion cells can be made. > 20 years, > 1 million miles at 100% DOD. It is “easy” to do this.

"These cells will be suitable for grid-tied EVs. With the smart grid, the driver should be able to make their vehicle available to be charged or discharged when parked at home or at work up to set maximum and minimum charge points so that the next needed drive is possible. Vehicle owners should be paid for this by utilities. The future is very exciting.

"I want to emphasize the importance of basic research like William Reed's. In 1965, who knew if his thesis would ever be “useful” from a practical standpoint. Thank goodness the work was done and was well preserved in the UBC library system. It is very likely that NaPO2F2 can become a replacement for LiPO2F2 and help drive down costs of Li-ion batteries for EV’s"​

Here are thumbnails showing the original text as presented by Dr Jeff Dahn:

vlcsnap-00002.png vlcsnap-00002e.png

Any doubt where the future is going? Dr Jeff Dahn says its "Grid-tied EVs". For your further reading pleasure: Tesla Grid Controller | Cleantechnica Feb 14, 2020

Note how Jeff Dahn concludes: "Vehicle owners should be paid for this by utilities. The future is very exciting." Also notice how fond Tesla is of vertical integration (and exciting tech).

PG&E is ripe for takeover. With potentially 4+M Tesla EVs soon performing daily charge / discharge cycles in the greater SFO region, plus Ports and Transport trucks, it is a huge market with unmatched challenges and opportunities. And it could become the prototype for wider integration of EVs with the grids all over the world.

Think about it. Bty day is coming.

Cheers!
 
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I got my Interactive Broker account set up--but man, do I hate the two step verification every time I log in. So far, I've not found a way to turn this off. I was going to shift my shares from E*trade to IB, due to Morgan-Stanley buying E*trade, but not if I have to get a stupid SMS message every time I want to check my stocks. You know how often I obsessively check those things?

Is there a decent brokerage out here who doesn't require two-step verification every time you log in?

(Robinhood is off the table because 1) I don't know if it's come up since yesterday still, and 2) they don't accept stock transfers, so it defeats the purpose of taking my TSLA out of E*trade and away from Morgan-Stanley).