Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Summed up the state of GM and their ilk in a blog post, in case anybody wanted to tweet it or paste it anywhere
Cliffski's Blog | Legacy car companies and the shift to EVS. Why they cannot win.

 

[jerry33]

If you are still buying toilet paper, you haven't figured out what to do with your TSLA profits yet. Don't even think about an island unless you've already got a good bidet toilet seat -- I love my Toto S550e. We use about 1/10th the toilet paper we used to. And nothing beats sitting on a warm seat in the morning while you're checking the stock market.

Been using one for years.

 

[jerry33]

Fit and finish he seemed quite happy with; his only complaint was (after inspecting everything closely) he found one place that was a couple millimeters off flush.!

Another toilet paper post?

 

[vikings123]

Somebody is really getting into troubles if the SP rises above 750.
If I had some billions to spare, I would really screw them today and bump the SP....

What will happen on monday when the brakes are released? (if there is no corona panic)

The macros are down in general. We could very easily break out and threaten 800 or we could go down to 700. By end of day you will know where the MMs want to pin this for options Friday tomorrow.

if you half know what you are doing there’s good money to be made with options, not advice.

 

[LN1_Casey]

-5% during premarket.

I wonder if my standing orders will pop. Knowing my luck though, this means it'll go to 700.10, and go back to 750.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's also worth pointing out that it's only 11 BEV models by 2025 (about 2 per year). It's 20 "electrified vehicles" the Press isn't allowed to photograph by 2023, which includes PHEVs, and in some definitions even basic HEVs.

HTH.

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Lots of fleet vehicles showing up in new inventory section for S,3 and X. Is this something that happens every quarter?

Yes, because this is the time when the Fremont factory is producing for the states.

 

[vikings123]

Yes, because this is the time when the Fremont factory is producing for the states.

Thanks. I understand the Fremont production. My question is about the fleet vehicles, presumably used for test drives and as loaners.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Guten morgan, herr Spiegel.

Look in the mirror: when "Shady" meets "Schadenfreude":

"Tesla Short Seller Mark Spiegel Loses Entire Position And Then Some"

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Thanks. I understand the Fremont production. My question is about the fleet vehicles, presumably used for test drives and as loaners.

Yeah, same applies. They routinely swap out the new test drive vehicles, or "fleet vehicles" to 1) ensure they have the newest and greatest models to show to potential customers and 2) prevent undue, excessive mileage/wear on the vehicles to ensure they can still be sold for a premium.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks. I understand the Fremont production. My question is about the fleet vehicles, presumably used for test drives and as loaners.

They churn these cars regularly so they can still be sold with relatively low mileage, plus the pace they change the cars they need to keep them hardware-current. So yes, it's normal.

 

[KarenRei]

The strength of the Hummer is basically a marketing myth - its design is a death trap.

(The Cybertruck would probably have neatly lifted that bus up a bit when coming to a stop, without crushing half of the passenger cabin...)

Cybertruck vs. the bus, I think the bus would come out as the one looking worse for wear

I'm still curious as to what sort of crash energy absorption system they'll use for Cybertruck, mind you! Looking at some pictures, I almost wonder if they'll have the hood panel slide partially over the windshield in a crash. Which would not only get it out of the way so the energy could be absorbed by crumpling (replacable) energy-absorption structures in the frunk compartment, but would add more protection for the passengers (steel armour plate partially over the windshield). Only issue is how to deal with the stringers that they're surely using in the hood, as with all of the other skin... would have to ensure adequate clearance for the stringers to slide over.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if my standing orders will pop. Knowing my luck though, this means it'll go to 700.10, and go back to 750.

Intraday volitility since Feb 2, 2020 has been off the chain:

• Mean: 8.7%
• Stdev: 5.1%

So on average we can expect a +/- $65 swing each day (68% of days betwn $27 and $104). New York Markets spook on a headline today the same way carriage horses did 120 yrs ago for a wind-blown newspaper.

Longs will win this rodeo in the end, and its a hello less bumpy ride HODLing!

Cheers!

 

[Favguy]

Guten morgan, herr Spiegel.

Look in the mirror: when "Shady" meets "Schadenfreude":

"Tesla Short Seller Mark Spiegel Loses Entire Position And Then Some"

Cheers!

Mark Spiegel is ageing about as well as Dorien Gray's portrait... Must be his inner nastiness!

 

[CorneliusXX]

As usual Australia has the perfect solution to covid-19, it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the world follows our excellent lead..

Coronavirus COVID-19: Why is everyone buying toilet paper? - ABC Life

But there is a lesson on supply and demand here...

I saw these stories and I'm like "yeah right I'm ignoring that" .....

My wife comes home yesterday, "They are out of toilet paper at X and Y....."

Sure enough I visit my local supermarket today and the shelf is stripped bare....

I know when toilet paper is selling on EBay for $20 per roll, we will have to buy, and the wife will be looking at me....

This is what happens when demand outstrips supply, it is gold rush....

At least we have finally found an investment that might out perform Tesla over the short term..

Tesla just cut down a forest. Perhaps they're entering another supply constrained market

 

[BenPrice]

Just celebrated 18 months sober yesterday, after 40 years of continuous drinking.
Kicked an additional addictive habit along the way.
I am a new, better person. It was worth the hard work.

Congrats on taking the step!

I can’t wait to type what you typed.

Thanks. Waking up and seeing I’m not a laughing stock is so powerful.

MOD EDIT: And with that, such personal posts now end.

 

[hacer]

Both are selling. I think that NSS (not shorts, but i can't call them longs) provide low asks with low volume, and SS provides P+$.01 but with huge/large volume which at least caps the price rise. Then if it works, i.e. volume is absorbed, i.e. buyers are satiated for the moment and price starts to creep up, NSS(x) does a sale to a step lower with lower q-ty, and SS provides volume at P2+$.01. This way there is a network of NSSes that provide step downs with low quantity/volume and SS providing volume. It would be interesting to find what is a tact frequency of such orchestration. Large volume would suggest high frequency.

I wonder when they adopt that regulation, what the frequency was, because it is technically possible to coordinate way faster, and the rule might had not accounted for computers/hft and might had been a remnant of rotary phone era...

Switch NSS(x) and SS often enough I'd argue it would satisfy the letter of the uptick regulation with minimal involvement of NSSes (actual shares) and allow quite dramatic spikes down even when it is in effect.

It would be illegal to coordinate in that fashion between two (or more) parties. A single party would have to meet the net-long after each long-sale, so it would require a large long position which they are effectively selling since each short-sale subtracts from their net-long just the same as a long-sale would.

If the plan is to act illegally then the easiest thing to do is mark the transaction as "short-exempt" while knowing it is lower than the best national bid; it wouldn't necessarily by obvious even in an audit that you were acting illegally if the "controls" you had in place to prevent it were carefully crafted.

 

[mrdoubleb]

For those keeping track: European deliveries were 1973 in January and ended up being 3843 in February, totaling 5816 for the quarter so far. For comparison:

• YoY: same time last year we had 5244 deliveries YTD (January 760, February 4484) and March 2019 came in at 17515.
• QoQ: same time last quarter we ere at 11035, with December coming in at 24538.

More here. Thanks to @hobbes and @Troy for leading that data collection exercise.

PS: if you go to the page right now UK data is still pending validation, but it will show 448.

 

[ammulder]

Summed up the state of GM and their ilk in a blog post, in case anybody wanted to tweet it or paste it anywhere
Cliffski's Blog | Legacy car companies and the shift to EVS. Why they cannot win.

While I agree with this position in principle, I think there are some weaknesses in the post. GM seems to have pretty exhaustively dispelled the argument that OEMs put batteries up high and motors in the old engine compartments. And by most accounts, SuperCruise is comparable to autopilot on the roads where it works -- so the software argument and the FSD computer advantage need to be more nuanced as well. Finally, on the battery front, GM declared that they will have cheaper, more advanced batteries. You may or may not believe them, but comparing their existing batteries to Tesla's existing batteries does not seem to be a great way to discredit their EV Day claims (they've already acknowledged their current batteries stink, and are claiming better ones).

I still think there are plenty of weaknesses in their case -- union, dealers, late start, history of poor EVs, most optimistic case of production way behind Tesla's expected production at the same date... I just think overstating it with strawmen isn't helping.

 

[Toolsmack]

B

I can’t wait to type what you typed.

Thanks. Waking up and seeing I’m not a laughing stock is so powerful.

But how are you feeling now about your call to short SPY big? If you got that in last night it’s looking good so far.