Just wanted to share that I have never felt this bullish as I do now.
Model Y is coming earlier than expected, it is half the price as the BMW X5M/X6M while having same range/cargo/acceleration and better handling(due to lower centre of gravity), safety, real infotainment, autopilot etc. It is just a better car and it might take a time for people realize this, but as it is people will gravitate towards it like crazy. I hope I will get mine to Europe by summer so I can drive it around and help inform people of its existance. It is the car US/Europe/China has been waiting for. As production of it ramps, its demand will ramp. And it will kill profits for the competition, some of them will go bankrupt further decreasing competition and thus increasing demand.
Ramp is going great, Model Y deliveries in Q1, Shanghai Phase 3(Model Y) is going up faster than Phase 1(Model 3) was, so I would not be surprised if they start production of MIC Y in 2020. With or without FSD margins should be crazy for Model Y, while also increasing margins for 3, S and X. Model 3 is ramping in China, 5k/week goal from July, that is 18weeks of 5k/week = 90k for Aug-Dec plus some for Jan->July, likely 100k for the year in China. I thought 550k for the year, now I am beginning to think 650k for 2020.
Gigaberlin looks like it’s going well and Tesla has figured out how to copypaste their production lines, I expect Model Y MIG to start being delivered by Q2 2021. Would not be surprised if Tesla for 2021 makes 600k cars in Freemont, 400k in China, 100k in Germany and 100k in Texas for 2021, that is 1.2M cars. By then with FSD finally being ready(robotaxi not) I expect >$10B in FCF for 2021 and todays market cap to seem silly.
Battery supply will be solved, Tesla will buy batteries from everyone, Samsung, CATL etc will ramp to meet China demand and at some point Tesla will add their own to the mix.
FSD I still trust that Karpathy, Keller, Elon, Bannon etc knows what they are doing and their 3D auto labelling will produce insane datasets and mojo and deepscale will train crazy networks that will have great software around then and fully make use HW3 sometime this year. FSD will be another selling point and further improve margins. And at some point, in 2-5years I think the robotaxi will activate. Waymo might have had a few years head start, but the number i-Pace they will have on the road will not be huge by then anyway and Tesla will win by scale and better design.