Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bunky]

Been pounding the table on Naz hitting 7300 for a week now...you guys notice the intraday low on Naz while down over 600 points...7295!!!......now we gotta hold today and tomorrow....want to see a huge intraday hammer candle today.

Could you elaborate on your view of the significance of this level? Thanks

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This is the black swan event of my lifetime.

I remember being told off about how my SPY 1/2021 $110P were basically apocalypse and never going to do anything.

I bought the original contracts of those for $0.05 a pop. Today I sold a few to test the market value and got back $1.45 a contract.

I'm holding the rest for now. This isn't over.

 

[KarenRei]

One thing I've pondered often is this. When some sells shares out of fear, that's not rational. But when they adjust leverage... that's somehow not also trying to timing the market?

If you're not in simple stock, leverage adjusts automatically. It happens inherently over time and with respect to SP changes. The "adjusting leverage game" is a game that you're automatically playing if you're in options.

Now, one can try to keep leverage fixed - buying and selling as it changes. You can also go full out on timing the market, buying and selling short-term options, even swinging from major bull to major bear and back. But these are not the only strategies. I for example automatically increase leverage at a fixed, pre-determined SP points as the stock price declines, and decrease it at fixed, pre-determined points as the stock rises. I don't try to predict market reactions to short-term events at all. If the stock goes down, I'm in the market for more leverage. If the stock goes up, I'm in the market for less.

 

[KarenRei]

This is the black swan event of my lifetime.

I remember being told off about how my SPY 1/2021 $110P were basically apocalypse and never going to do anything.

I bought the original contracts of those for $0.05 a pop. Today I sold a few to test the market value and got back $1.45 a contract.

I'm holding the rest for now. This isn't over.

I do like some of your strategies of buying SPY puts. I may do that in the future against future macro events, to simplify the Tesla investment to just "Tesla's performance", rather than "Tesla's performance + macro events"

 

[guidooo]

Come join the fun!

Not interested since I don't see how it supports Tesla's or a similar mission.

 

[Mo City]

588$ in premarket. Im still 100% cash, plan to start buying when/if we dip bellow 500.

I cashed out also but I'm not waiting for 500. Very doubtful it goes that low unless we get some additional catastrophic news.

 

[theschnell]

I think TSLA is close to a bottom today. Maybe $550 worst case scenario. I think we bounce from here and bought a call expiring tomorrow to try to take advantage of short term movements.

Edit: I should clarify. I don't think we see less than $550 this week... Beyond that, I'm not sure. I do think we'll close well above $550 next week as well but not sure the path in between.

 

[PeterJA]

...But I come here to understand from some of the most experienced investors ever.... I'm pretty certain there was a lot of deleveraging here going on this month....

I'm not the most experienced investor ever. But I'm about to increase my leverage when I see how far Trump's stupidity will panic the market.

 

[Lessmog]

FYI (from twitter) :
Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4
@gigafactory_4
· 56m
According to the local newssite @rbb24 all Berlin #Tesla employes responsible for #GigaBerlin need to get back to the USA due to the Corona issue.
https://t.co/CXy0j5eD8c?amp=1

 

[lklundin]

Want to accumulate more tsla @ around 520.

So,

Selling 1 200327570P Put @ 50

If the Put is exercised, I will own 100 tsla shrs @ 520, otherwise I keep $5000

I thought about the same, but chickened out due to concerns of a scenario in which Fremont or GF1 shuts down soon, causing a miss on expected production, causing the SP to dive just around the expiry date.

 

[tinm]

I was not expecting to be testing $560. But that was before Trump's swing-and-a-miss last night. But I'm happy to hunker down and ride this out.

I fully expect TSLA to test $400 before long. Simply because of the macro situation which will probably continue to be dire for months.

 

[wipster]

Damn, should have stayed in bed...

 

[neezer]

Wow it's sitting stubbornly at $550 again ... real stubborn.

 

[GaryW]

I bought a few more at $562.

Already down a few bucks on them.

I’ll never catch the bottom.

I won’t sell for years.

I think the panic will end.

 

[wipster]

I'm sure glad we got high before we got low... remember the concern about reaching 420? Just a few months ago? And now we're concerned about maybe 500? If you didn't know where we'd recently been, you would be happy as heck right now.

Just sayin'...

 

[kishdude]

A physician's perspective and what I'm worried about for TSLA.

We got an email from our health system today that they started large scale testing for Covid-19 just yesterday. They are only testing those individuals that are symptomatic but also who don't test positive for other viruses like flu even though there is a 2% coinfection rate. Typically these tests take a few days to come back. All of this means that the number of cases in the US will drastically increase over the weekend and through next week.

From a TSLA investor standpoint, what I'm most worried about short term is the fact that if they discover many more cases in California, how long before TSLA is forced to temporarily halt manufacturing in Fremont? What is news like that going to do to the stock price? I think this is the biggest possible short term risk.

 

[Causalien]

not exactly helpful as the crisis is not of a financial nature:
It is like raining stacks of cash upon a dead horse

Totally understand that. Most crisis before this was a one shot deal. Happens very fast as they are financial in nature. But this one will drag on.

That said, I am not god. So I have several tranches and I set criteria for them to be used. The first of which is bailout package with double bottom formation following the market theory. That the market is pretty good at telling whether or not something is a solution to a problem.

 

[ProfTournesol]

I cashed out also but I'm not waiting for 500. Very doubtful it goes that low unless we get some additional catastrophic news.

there will be more, when it really hits the us economy and the need to close down small businesses.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A physician's perspective and what I'm worried about for TSLA.

We got an email from our health system today that they started large scale testing for Covid-19 just yesterday. They are only testing those individuals that are symptomatic but also who don't test positive for other viruses like flu even though there is a 2% coinfection rate. Typically these tests take a few days to come back. All of this means that the number of cases in the US will drastically increase over the weekend and through next week.

From a TSLA investor standpoint, what I'm most worried about short term is the fact that if they discover many more cases in California, how long before TSLA is forced to temporarily halt manufacturing in Fremont? What is news like that going to do to the stock price? I think this is the biggest possible short term risk.

Same as the risk to every other company in the world, perhaps less since Tesla is already such a lean operation with high demand growth and no real competition.

1Q will be impacted, but some of that demand will simply be delayed until 2Q/3Q. This fear will pass in a couple weeks and all those trillions of greedy dollars will come flooding back in.

 

[Heimdallr]

First buy order triggered: 210 shares, $550