Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I've been paying attention, and this is exactly why I don't like what I'm reading about his pandemic approach.
First a dumb tweet about "coronavirus panic" (unnecessary, to say the least), then other tweets, then this Buzzfeed article.
I'd be the first to be happy if the article was false, but evidence suggests otherwise.
I speak with the only authority of someone who is living an epidemic shutdown, and witnessing an health system overload.
Feel free to believe or not. I still believe in the mission: this is why I want Elon not to underestimate this. He should do what it's in his power to guarantee the safety of his workers and their families. That, hopefully, doesn't mean shutting everything down.
If you want another more cynical argument, think that in an highly emotional situation it's very risky, PR-wise (which is also market-wise) to do the smartass with statistics and analogies on Twitter.

Merely your opinion about the tweet. An opinion not held by everyone.

An article written by a jerk who has done nothing less than consistently cherry pick and twist information leading the gullible down the path of conclusion that Elon is just about the worst person on the planet.

Ignoring dozens upon dozens of examples of Elon praising his employees, giving them credit, improving work conditions, decreasing workplace accidents, visiting an injured employee in hospital (2012? 2013?), recalling employees from abroad (Germany), and on the list goes.

You haven’t been paying attention. What you have been doing is getting caught up in the fear and projecting it.

I take people at the sum of their words AND, often times more importantly, their actions. Not based on a tweet or two, or an article by a dishonest twerp.

In the end, I find it much wiser and more accurate to let the employees be the judge of whether or not he respects them and their families or not. That’s what you said - showing respect for his employees and their families.

 

[SMAlset]

Has a written notice of this class action been sent to all shareholders? I haven't seen one. Do the brokerage houses where our shares reside get involved in notifying shareholders? I'll opt-out in a minute if there is a link to a site where I can do that.

we don’t recall an opt out and like many programs it should be opt in to sign up if you want to be party to a lawsuit. Anyway using the money to purchase Tesla products is probably the best thing you can do if sent a check. Reinvest solely in the company.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It makes total sense to me and this is what I love about Elon. He really understands that the "obvious" solution is not always the best solution and the world is an intricate place where every action has a reaction.

Not only can they sell every Model Y they can make (without advertising or hullabaloo) but this "stealth" roll-out can end up having more impact at a later date when it matters more. Maybe after the Coronavirus thing is not front and center in the news.

A few tweets are neither advertisement nor hullabaloo. It'll create a number of free online articles that will strengthen the brand name and potentially add some orders as well. Just because they have buyers for every car now doesn't mean they don't want buyers for April, July or September.

Sure, they can make some announcement at some later time about production numbers, and they eventually will of course but they could still do that even if they did something now. Nothing they do now would prevent them doing more later. You're only starting deliveries once. Next month you are not starting deliveries anymore.

They started deliveries of a product that will bring in something like 10 billion this year alone in sales and didn't even put out a pressrelease.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am more curious about Musk's personality change. When you compare this reaction to the thai boys trapped in caves. The reaction is not consistent. Perhaps the pedo guy controversies really jaded him.

You do realize that people are often complicated and contradictory, right? That within their beliefs, philosophies, words, actions, personalities, traits etc.. that there are often times contrasts, juxtapositions, opposites. Notwithstanding circumstances and events and mood can bring forth or subdue those various differences. None of which constitute or hint at personality changes.

If you’d like I can show you inconsistencies in your own personality traits amongst your postings.

I find Elon Musk to be far more consistent and predictable than the general population. He’s changed certain aspects of the content of his tweets, but his personality hasn’t changed.

 

[Sparky]

Word.
Every sell helps shorts and hurts the longs.
....

So if I understand this, yesterday, when I sold some at $598 I hurt the longs. Later that same day when I bought back more shares than I sold earlier, at $505, did I not then help the longs? Seems at worst a net zero effect.

....
We have a nice word here for people who ride their bikes only on Sunday with clear sky and warm temperatures. It called “Schönwetterfahrer”. A lot of people here seems to be Schönwetterfahrer on TSLA. Makes me sad and angry.

I very much enjoy riding my bike on Sunday when the weather is nice. I avoid it when it's bad weather and proceed to drive my Model X or Model 3 (spouse permitting) and very soon my Model Y. Makes me joyful and euphoric.

Like many here, I've owned some measure of TSLA since 2010 and, long term, I expect the stock to greatly increase in value. I also support the company and the mission by purchasing what will soon be my 4th Tesla, and then a Solarglass roof and perhaps in a year or two, a Cybertruck. I talk up the company ad nauseam at small gatherings, give everyone test drives and have been the starting point of many sales. Yet by your description my trading pattern makes me one of those "Schönwetterfahrer on TSLA".

I've learned a lot here on this board. I don't think purity tests are ever a good idea though.
Seriously, the VIX on this board seems to skyrocket with any strong up or down movement in TSLA. Maybe we need an uptick/downtick rule.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A few tweets are neither advertisement nor hullabaloo. It'll create a number of free online articles that will strengthen the brand name and potentially add some orders as well. Just because they have buyers for every car now doesn't mean they don't want buyers for April, July or September.

Sure, they can make some announcement at some later time about production numbers, and they eventually will of course but they could still do that even if they did something now. Nothing they do now would prevent them doing more later. You're only starting deliveries once. Next month you are not starting deliveries anymore.

They started deliveries of a product that will bring in something like 10 billion this year alone in sales and didn't even put out a pressrelease.

I presume Model Y is sold out for 18+ mths in N.America. The only thing a lot of press could do is convince potential 3 customers to delay their purchase. Let's let them run their plan from the inside. They know more than we do.

 

[Eugene Ash]

A few tweets are neither advertisement nor hullabaloo. It'll create a number of free online articles that will strengthen the brand name and potentially add some orders as well. Just because they have buyers for every car now doesn't mean they don't want buyers for April, July or September.

Sure, they can make some announcement at some later time about production numbers, and they eventually will of course but they could still do that even if they did something now. Nothing they do now would prevent them doing more later. You're only starting deliveries once. Next month you are not starting deliveries anymore.

They started deliveries of a product that will bring in something like 10 billion this year alone in sales and didn't even put out a pressrelease.

It may be cultural: feast during famine. CV dominates the news cycle, everyone is busy hunting down TP and could be thinking: "those rich bustards with their $100k cars just don't understand the struggle of proletariat". so is it worth going against that?

 

[jerry33]

Don't think so. The Solar City shareholders made out like bandits and have no reason to sue. Tesla shareholders were allegedly harmed by Tesla paying too high a price for the Solar City acquisition. So it's (some) Tesla shareholders who are suing. This article doesn't make that clear, but that is my understanding: Tesla and Musk hid facts about SolarCity deal and SpaceX involvement, shareholders claim in unsealed court docs

Edit:
The filing says: “The Board did not reject Musk’s proposal, as represented in the Proxy. Instead, the Board ‘authorized management to gather additional details and to further explore and analyze’ a SolarCity acquisition.”

Here's an article that makes it clear: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...-solar-city-acquisition-was-a-bailout-in.html
HTH

Then why didn't we get any official notice?

 

[Dr. J]

Then why didn't we get any official notice?

Good question. I can't answer that. I wasn't a TSLA shareholder at the time, so I have no insight.

 

[StealthP3D]

You've got that backwards if the heat source(s) include the battery pack (not just outside ambient air). The less heat available from outside won't matter much if the heat is being pumped from the pack to the cabin.

I guess we'll know soon enough when Sandy Munro publishes his 1st teardown (or at least has a guest appearance on Autoline Afterhours)

You might be right. I was basing my analysis on the assumption that it was an air-to-air heat pump. But, yeah, it makes a lot more sense that it extracts heat from the electronics. However, most energy consumption in very cold weather (for cabin heat) is initial heating and, in most scenarios, particularly when it's sub-zero, most trips will not be long enough to benefit substantially from waste heat. So I suspect that no matter how the heat pump is integrated, it's actual benefit in arctic-like temperatures will primarily be a moderate incremental increase in range for long-distance cold-weather trips and not much difference for multiple short trips where the waste heat has not yet built up and where it has time to dissipate between driving segments.

Don't get me wrong, it's a welcome change and offers significant benefits or Tesla would not have spent the money. I just think it's most significant benefit will be in milder temperatures (32F to 60F) ad that it will still have a resistive heater to deal with extreme cold. Not including a resistive element would cause longer warm-up/defrost times in the very cold. Maybe even approaching taking half as long as an ICE engine takes to heat up! Oh, the horrors! I never understood how good an EV could be in cold weather until we got our first Model 3! It puts gas and diesel cars to shame! Living in the PNW, I especially like the near-instantaneous defogging of the glass so I can drive right away.

 

[StealthP3D]

Has a written notice of this class action been sent to all shareholders? I haven't seen one. Do the brokerage houses where our shares reside get involved in notifying shareholders? I'll opt-out in a minute if there is a link to a site where I can do that.

It depends upon how you have chosen to receive communications from your broker. For those still on paper notice, you would have got a letter in the mail notifying you of your right to opt-out. I'm not sure how it works with electronic communication.

 

[Causalien]

You do realize that people are often complicated and contradictory, right? That within their beliefs, philosophies, words, actions, personalities, traits etc.. that there are often times contrasts, juxtapositions, opposites. Notwithstanding circumstances and events and mood can bring forth or subdue those various differences. None of which constitute or hint at personality changes.

If you’d like I can show you inconsistencies in your own personality traits amongst your postings.

I find Elon Musk to be far more consistent and predictable than the general population. He’s changed certain aspects of the content of his tweets, but his personality hasn’t changed.

True. Elon has been pretty consistent in my mind, this was outside my expectations.

No need to show me, it's pretty clear I have multiple personalities.

 

[Unpilot]

Anyone want to go in on a Toilet paper stand?

 

[StealthP3D]

Some people seem to treat their investment in TSLA as a charity. Most of us want to see a return for our investment, i.e. money. By selling high and buying back low you make more money and have the opportunity to buy more shares.

It works until that one time it doesn't and the shares zoom out of reach, never to return. If you end up with a smaller position because of it, your compounded returns down the road can make whatever $10K or $100K that you managed to "scalp" look like peanuts.

But, yeah, if you end up with more shares, more power to you. Most people don't.

 

[Cosmacelf]

One thing which puzzles me is why there is no p.r. blitz regarding the Y model? Or perhaps it will come in the coming days...

Many reasons. No need since Tesla has a large backlog of Model Y orders. If they were to get new orders, they wouldn’t be able to fulfill them. Second, coronavirus is what is on peoples minds, they would more likely ignore Tesla news right now. Third, it is likely that new car buying is going to tank for the next several months as people hunker down, so again, it isn't the right time to do a PR blitz.

 

[ggr]

Then why didn't we get any official notice?

Here's my understanding, although IANAL and I may be misunderstanding something. I was a shareholder in both Tesla and Solar City for some years before the acquisition. I didn't get any notice, but actually I think that's normal. It's only after the case is finished that they go to the effort of finding all of the possible class members and notifying them. To get the case certified as a class action they only need to find some number (50-100?) people who are willing to say that they were damaged by the same actions, and then the lawyers estimate how many people were affected and for how much, and distribute the settlement proceeds. As others have noticed, once you get the settlement notification (assuming you do, and haven't moved or whatever) you have three choices:
1. opt out of the settlement, reserving the right to sue on your own behalf
2. waive your rights under the settlement, basically washing your hands of the matter
3. Opt in, and provide documentation proving that you belong to the class in question. Then they split the settlement money with the lawyers getting most of it, and the class members getting a few pennies. I think the biggest settlement I've ever had was about $15, and I usually invest in multiples of $10k if I'm going to bother. I have one in my waste paper bin at the moment*.
Edit: see attachment for a non-Tesla example; actually 5 choices.

For (3), I think (haven't verified) that only people who traded Tesla stock during a certain period would be members of the class. This is because the (alleged) behavior of Tesla (allegedly) misled people to invest during that particular period. If you held long-term and didn't trade, clearly you weren't affected by that (alleged) behavior.

*: NantHealth: "If you bought NantHealth, Inc., common stock between June 1 2016 and May 1 2017, you could benefit from a class action settlement. A federal court authorized this notice. This is not a solicitation from a lawyer." I have not received any previous communication about this company, I vaguely recall trying to get some shares in their IPO, can't remember if I did actually get some trivial number or not. Can't be bothered trying to track down the details.

 

[Fishy Fish]

Many reasons. No need since Tesla has a large backlog of Model Y orders. If they were to get new orders, they wouldn’t be able to fulfill them. Second, coronavirus is what is on peoples minds, they would more likely ignore Tesla news right now. Third, it is likely that new car buying is going to tank for the next several months as people hunker down, so again, it isn't the right time to do a PR blitz.

This doesn't seem to align with the experience of the person who is answering questions and giving measurements of the model Y at the moment in another thread. He got his Y yesterday after ordering in January.

Model Y - Hands On

 

[AlMc]

You do realize that people are often complicated and contradictory, right? That within their beliefs, philosophies, words, actions, personalities, traits etc.. that there are often times contrasts, juxtapositions, opposites. Notwithstanding circumstances and events and mood can bring forth or subdue those various differences. None of which constitute or hint at personality changes.

If you’d like I can show you inconsistencies in your own personality traits amongst your postings.

I find Elon Musk to be far more consistent and predictable than the general population. He’s changed certain aspects of the content of his tweets, but his personality hasn’t changed.

True. Elon has been pretty consistent in my mind, this was outside my expectations.

No need to show me, it's pretty clear I have multiple personalities.

And then there is consistent abhorrent behavior: Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter. Sorry all my TMC brethren for even posting the link.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sure, they can make some announcement at some later time about production numbers, and they eventually will of course but they could still do that even if they did something now. Nothing they do now would prevent them doing more later. You're only starting deliveries once. Next month you are not starting deliveries anymore.

They started deliveries of a product that will bring in something like 10 billion this year alone in sales and didn't even put out a pressrelease.

When you say that making an announcement now doesn't prevent them from announcing it at a later date also shows you don't understand how publicity works. Sure, they could announce it twice but then the second announcement loses its impact and its ability to shape how people perceive the news.

Timing for maximum effect is also important. You are acting like Elon and Company are being negligent here and that you know better than they. Trust me, not only do they know a lot more about the details of their business but they also are more skilled in judging the effect of various strategies on the market.

Sun Tzu, the author of "The Art of War" said:
Leader who takes on the role of the
commander, without understanding
the strategy of warfare invite defeat.

Also,
Those who are skilled in producing surprises will win.
Such tacticians are as versatile as the changes in heaven and earth.

Also,
Those who are victorious fight like
pent-up waters that seem to burst
down a gorge from high above.

Such a position can defeat any opposing force.

I'm confident Elon and Company know exactly what they are doing. Why do you think you know better? Because you took Advertising 101? Let this play out and see the master in action.

 

[22522]

Thank You!

Panic never served a positive purpose in ANY situation.

This can't be true...

It may be a very fast "freeze" response that requires no thought. Could have saved lives if downwind of a predator!