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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The Federal Reserve can create dollars at will (it's literally a few computer commands), and won't let the FDIC "run out of money". Trust in bank balances is such a basic concept.



The main force that creates the value of the dollar is that U.S. citizens and corporations have to pay about ~4 trillion dollars of tax obligations per year, which can only be settled in U.S. dollars.

This is what couples U.S. economic activity to the value of the dollar: more income generates more taxes, which generates demand on the dollar, and a 200 years robust track record of this demand creates expectations of this to continue.

Nothing more, nothing less.

"Faith" plays little role, money is not a religious concept. :D


1. while your first point(tax collection)has some merit , that is a technicality rather than the cause...money is actually debt in a fiat system...if the dollar is a IOU that people give value to, they have to have faith that the debtor(US govt) will pay it back one day, hence the masses dont cash in all the treasuries all at once...if they lost faith, the value of debt and dollar would tank...we have faith that the US govt won't dissolve...and although it is true that the Fed Reserve could print money all day if they wanted to, in practicality they can't and would not do this as it would cause severe inflation...gas would be 20.00 a gallon and loaf of bread would 20.00 also...they have to increase the national debt in gradual increments otherwise we'd have runaway inflation...do you realize that despite our banks holding 10T of our cash in the US, the FDIC only has 25B in their reserves lol?!.....if there was a true run on the banks on a national level, sure the Fed's could print 10T to fund the FDIC, but you better have a bucket of cash handy to buy your mornings starbucks...:).

I would also argue that money is beyond faith, it is our religion...we pray for it, we go to war with certain countries and kill for it(oil/money), our churches demand it, slave away 40 hrs a week when we dont want to for it, do illegal acts for it, our kids get educated because of it, allows me to travel anywhere I want because of it... ...in many ways it is our god(no disrespect to religious folks just a figure of speech only!).

You being in Vienna should understand the threats of unlimited money pumping given the previous history of your close neighbor.

Rant over, its all good...we both have teslas and believe in Elon...:)
 
In case this is useful for anyone, I ran a pretty big state-price model for the TSLA options chain for the rest of the year. Looks like option volume has really dried up, so this model has less information contained in it than it normally would. December dropped out because it contained too few options with meaningful volume for e.g. It looks like the plurality is behaving as if 500-600 will be the trading range for a while. Second most conviction goes to the doomsday scenario folks betting on <200. >900 probability doesn't pop back up until after September. But of course this is all based on option prices as of Friday; a lot of opinions on the future could have changed over the weekend.

TSLA_forecast-Mar-15-2020.png
 
The idea that people are going to have more money to spend because they aren't traveling or going out is misguided. They just closed the ski resorts around Salt Lake City. Tourism drives the economy here. They just closed all hospitals to elective cases. This means a 6 figure pay cut for me this year, and we are no longer replacing my wife's 4 year old Model X. We are headed into a big recession.
 
The idea that people are going to have more money to spend because they aren't traveling or going out is misguided. They just closed the ski resorts around Salt Lake City. Tourism drives the economy here. They just closed all hospitals to elective cases. This means a 6 figure pay cut for me this year, and we are no longer replacing my wife's 4 year old Model X. We are headed into a big recession.

For some here a huge asteroid could be coming to destroy Earth and they will say musk saw it coming and will wage art of war so Tesla will be strong buy for sure.

The other half of the time they actually say something reasonable usually which I why I hang here even though it's huge echo chamber.

Long term Tesla is a buy. I didn't see this damn virus coming, but feared it once it did. I think most people aren't seeing cured coming either which, if it happens, could Rocket the market like we haven't seen.
 
Germany tries to stop US from luring away firm seeking coronavirus vaccine
Germany’s Health Ministry confirmed a report in newspaper Welt am Sonntag, which said President Donald Trump had offered funds to lure the company CureVac to the United States.

Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.​

German source: Corona: USA will Zugriff auf deutsche Impfstoff-Firma - WELT

If USA do this or similar I don't think I'm the only Europeean who will stop buying anything made in the USA. Including Tesla cars.

For a powerful country to grab a C19 vaccine and only allow it to be sold to Americans and not caring about the rest of the people on Earth is the lowest of the lowest I can think of right now.

Is USA trying to provoke a new trade war in the middle of the virus tragedy?

I'm shocked!
Assuming the article is credible. I don't have full background on this, but does German government provide funds to help with the research? The most effective way to stop this is to do better than Trump's offer
 
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For some here a huge asteroid could be coming to destroy Earth and they will say musk saw it coming and will wage art of war so Tesla will be strong buy for sure.

The other half of the time they actually say something reasonable usually which I why I hang here even though it's huge echo chamber.

Long term Tesla is a buy. I didn't see this damn virus coming, but feared it once it did. I think most people aren't seeing cured coming which, if it happens, could Rocket the market like weed haven't seen.
Uhhh. Can't quite hear you, there seems to be some echoechoechoecho ...
Reboot.
 
Edited away most of my typos. Laying in hot bath and Swype typing away... Can't they make this thing know what I really mean to say? Need neurallink now!

For some here a huge asteroid could be coming to destroy Earth and they will say musk saw it coming and will wage art of war so Tesla will be strong buy for sure.

The other half of the time they actually say something reasonable usually which I why I hang here even though it's huge echo chamber.

Long term Tesla is a buy. I didn't see this damn virus coming, but feared it once it did. I think most people aren't seeing cured coming either which, if it happens, could Rocket the market like we haven't seen.
 
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If USA do this or similar I don't think I'm the only Europeean who will stop buying anything made in the USA. Including Tesla cars.

For a powerful country to grab a C19 vaccine and only allow it to be sold to Americans and not caring about the rest of the people on Earth is the lowest of the lowest I can think of right now.

Is USA trying to provoke a new trade war in the middle of the virus tragedy?

I'm shocked!

Sounds like somebody in the German government is scare mongering, and you fell for it.
 
Futures will start trading in a a hour or so...I will predict ES/SPX will open up 100 in futures trading...mkt will gap up hard imho....tsla will have a good day....watch SPX 2950-3000 level....if this is a technical bounce within a bear mkt, then mkts should reject prices right around here...Naz level is approx 8400...if mkt's accept prices above these levels then we may very well be onto something...let the mkt's tell you how to behave...I said I was buying and took a 25-30% position on longside on thursday/friday....we held the Naz 7300-7400 I have been preaching about for past one week...but we barely held technically despite the breach to 7200....we are not out of this by any means, but there is hope...if we cannot hold fridays intraday lows, then it will be ugly and you guys know what to do.
 
For some here a huge asteroid could be coming to destroy Earth and they will say musk saw it coming and will wage art of war so Tesla will be strong buy for sure.

The other half of the time they actually say something reasonable usually which I why I hang here even though it's huge echo chamber.

Long term Tesla is a buy. I didn't see this damn virus coming, but feared it once it did. I think most people aren't seeing cured coming either which, if it happens, could Rocket the market like we haven't seen.


I get why people would want to cash out at the highs when the future in the near term looks bleak. Really.,,.i do. I just wish no one did. Because if we all cashed out for fears like this, we’d all really be in a world of hurt even more so than we are. Even for people near retirement, I understand that you want to feel set. But it isn’t like you need your entire portfolio on day one. I suspect many plan on living for another 20+ years and the economy is normally quite good over the long term.
 
Assuming the article is credible. I don't have full background on this, but does German government provide funds to help with the research? The most effective way to stop this is to do better than Trump's offer

80% of that company is owner by Hopp a former founder of SAP and now billionaire. The German Government interfered too when the news broke and this is now off the table. Its credible and correct.

Germany has zero problems to support the US once a vaccine is found but what was written is that the US Government wanted to produce only and first of all for the US (America first)

I believe sometimes in life your former statements catch you.
 
I get why people would want to cash out at the highs when the future looks bleak. Really.,,.i do. I just wish no one did. Because if we all cashed out for fears like this, we’d all really be in a world of hurt even more so than we are.

IMO the legacy of this event, even post-recovery, will For the next decade or so make the market much more skittish for future potential disasters — even low impact, low probability ones — to a degree we haven’t previously seen. It’s going to be annoying for the forces of rationality, but a boon to people willing to take advantage.
 
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