Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Fri, Mar 13, 2020 is out. "Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting, was again unusually high at 6% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 128th Percentile (making it highly unlikely to occur by simple chance).

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Mon, Mar 16, 2020 is out.

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting, was again unusually high at 7.19% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 147th Percentile (making it highly unlikely to occur by simple chance)

Note that the -10% curcuit break was again tripped at the Open today, so the "Uptick Rule" should continue in effect for the 4th consecutive day tomorrow, Mar 17, 2020.

 

[mongo]

Unless these are well defined terms, government orders should generally be read in the most permissive fashion. (But I don't know how to interpret county health directives.)

I can dig it.
Dealerships are auto supply (and auto repair), and Tesla is related to them.

I sure hope so, because my job requires utility capital projects to continue. (I'm on the software side) FWIW, utility companies are pretty much immune from market downturns. Regulated prices/costs, and people really can't decide to stop using electricity just because the market is down.

Have you seen PCG? Down 50% in the last three weeks. Opportunity?

 

[NicoV]

France is in lockdown now, only people in essential services can go to work now.
So no Tesla deliveries in France anymore in Q1.

It seems that going to work is still allowed, so maybe the last cars can still be delivered: La France confinée face au coronavirus : déplacements réduits dès demain, fermeture des frontières de l’UE, report des municipales

There are rumours that Belgium will go in lockdown tomorrow. It’s not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’. The question is what that means for Tesla’s operation in Zeebrugge.

 

[lklundin]

Don't be afraid to ask It's a touch over two weeks of production, almost all of it which of likely would have been sold in this quarter, unless they'd been planning to start pre-producing for Q2 overseas markets. Maybe 18k cars? Maybe $250M?

OK. Well, given the positive results of 2019Q3/Q4, with any (GAAP-)profit in 2020Q2, Tesla could have a loss of up to 248M$ in Q1 and still qualify for S&P 500 inclusion w. Q2.

 

[Nocturnal]

Have you seen PCG? Down 50% in the last three weeks. Opportunity?

I'm always worried they will do something stupid again. I avoid the sector entirely myself as it just increases my risk exposure.

 

[SMAlset]

It is refreshing to see a small business owner here and I can totally relate to your observations about the small business economy. It is painful to read all these people who think "someone" will still do all services for them as needed and they could just sit home watch Netflix and collect a paycheck from the employer on time.

Husband is WFH as well as his team members, all without fear of no paycheck (large company). However with the new SFBay area Shutdown orders for all non-essential travel and business I have to wonder how they classify somethings.

Our MS is still apparently scheduled for its annual maintenance, at least as of this morning before announcement. Waiting to if that changes.

Tomorrow our electrician is suppose to come to our house to begin work upgrading our main panel box for our Tesla solar panels. He works alone in his own business so no trouble with the group numbers. As a small businessman no one to fall back on to bring money in if he gets shut down so see this as essential to him. If he’s fine and wants to come out, not sure City offices will be open to approve his work before stucco guy (in same small business situation) can come out. The solar panels I’m guessing will have to wait.

Any idea whether government offices, like for permitting, will be open? I know banks, medical, grocery stores and take out restaurants can stay open.

 

[KarenRei]

I read that as auto parts stores (for repairs, oil, wiper fluid), not manufacturers.
Although, isn't Tesla the only auto plant in CA? Might have/ get a non listed exemption.

"Auto parts stores" are meaningless if they can't get parts. If Tesla can justify that the factory is necessary to maintain supply, it should - I would expect - allowed to be able to operate. But only to make parts, not cars.

It would also allow them to run service centres and mobile services. But not stores.

Also, according to the order, work on "essential infrastructure" should be allowed to continue, if social distancing is maintained. This is explicitly stated to cover electricity supply. I doubt they'd get away with installing solar panels / roofs on homes, but grid-scale projects would probably continue.

 

[woodisgood]

The article from the SF Chronicle was very clear:

Without getting into my specific situation, no, it did not make clear anything for me. I’m sure my case is a bit rarer though.

 

[Mich]

Who has a crystal ball? What will happen tomorrow with the market and with TSLA?

What are the chances that the market will be shut down for a longer period of time? Do I need to worry about my SPY puts because of this risk?

 

[lklundin]

Is Fremont still pack constrained? If so, what does the recovery ramp look like? How long would it take to build and ship 3 weeks worth of additional production?
Q1 loses two weeks of production on the tail, plus delivery opportunities. Q2 loses a week of production but delivers the Q1 overhang followed by a glut of available components for 3 and Y.
If GF1 can stay running, that is.

I expect Tesla to be able to maintain some minimal services, like keeping various servers running - possible after migrating them to other locations. With that development of FSD and other software can continue, with developers working from home. Revenues from selling software services + upgrades can still continue.

PS. I see that others argue convincingly, also for the sale of tangible products. Sounds good to me...

 

[Eugene Ash]

I just estimated ~ 6 billion in automotive revenue / quarter. a loss of 3 weeks would be ~ 23% of revenue, or ~1.3 billion. I don't know how much is variable costs so I just wag 1 billion. (yes one of those weeks is in Q2, not Q1).

Adding shifts can offset a bit

 

[Singuy]

OK, Elon did the right thing, and indirectly (and in a very smart manner) admitted that his corona virus stance was wrong. He is now tweeting potential cures for the virus. I predicted (got a ton of disagrees for that) that Elon would during the weekend do the grown up thing and admit he was wrong -was off by one day

He didn't say the overreaction is stupid, he said panic is stupid.

-like how me being Asian now have people actively staying away from me while I'm at the gym(and in most cases leaving)
-or that my daughter arrived at the playground and people pulled their kids out
-or how all the grocery stores ran out of everything even though they are restocking everyday
-or people stealing any masks at our hospital to the point that it's affecting pt care.

Panic is stupid and always will be.

 

[mblakele]

Here's the County of Santa Clara order:

Order of the Health Officer of the County of Santa Clara - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara
​

Tesla factory might be exempted:

For the purposes of this Order, "Essential Businesses" means:

• Newspapers, television, radio, and other media services;
• Gas stations and auto-supply, auto-repair, and related facilities;
• Banks and related financial institutions;
• Hardware stores;

If hedge funds, business rags and car dealerships can stay open, Fremont certainly looks essential as well as an "auto-supply" facility.

I hate to disagree, but I'm afraid that's wishful thinking and wouldn't stand up to scrutiny. A car factory simply isn't what the health order means to allow. Fremont might be able to run a skeleton operation, limited to making parts for repair work. Or they might get an explicit waiver from the county, subject to appropriate measures — something like what happened in Shanghai. But either way they'd need to ask permission, not just point at the order and say "but we're an auto-related facility".

BTW here's the Alameda County order: similar language.

http://acphd.org/media/559658/health-officer-order-shelter-in-place-20200316.pdf

 

[Singuy]

Just bought some cruise line stock. See how that goes...

Me too! Only stick with the big names tho. They are priced for bankruptcy so it's now or never.

 

[Eugene Ash]

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Mon, Mar 16, 2020 is out.

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting, was again unusually high at 7.19% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 147th Percentile (making it highly unlikely to occur by simple chance)

Note that the -10% curcuit break was again tripped at the Open today, so the "Uptick Rule" should continue in effect for the 4th consecutive day tomorrow, Mar 17, 2020.

View attachment 522468

Ah, the spring is getting tighter!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ooooh teslas hype train begins (model Y deliveries begin announcement tweet)

Tesla on Twitter

Model Y deliveries begin! | Tesla on Youtube

Cheers!

 

[KSilver2000]

Husband is WFH as well as his team members, all without fear of no paycheck (large company). However with the new SFBay area Shutdown orders for all non-essential travel and business I have to wonder how they classify somethings.

Our MS is still apparently scheduled for its annual maintenance, at least as of this morning before announcement. Waiting to if that changes.

Tomorrow our electrician is suppose to come to our house to begin work upgrading our main panel box for our Tesla solar panels. He works alone in his own business so no trouble with the group numbers. As a small businessman no one to fall back on to bring money in if he gets shut down so see this as essential to him. If he’s fine and wants to come out, not sure City offices will be open to approve his work before stucco guy (in same small business situation) can come out. The solar panels I’m guessing will have to wait.

Any idea whether government offices, like for permitting, will be open? I know banks, medical, grocery stores and take out restaurants can stay open.

Not sure about other areas, but the around me the permit office have already been limiting inspections to only non-occupied buildings until mid-April. That was before today’s announcement. Just called the office because of one project, and they are on hold to see if anything from the announcement changes their work.

 

[KSilver2000]

Even if they can visit, they should not. They don't want to bring the virus home to the aging parents.

Of course, I stopped seeing my parents since last week even and I’m in CA.

I was more thinking about scenario of seeing siblings/cousins.

 

[rxlawdude]

The one article from the SF Chronicle was very clear:

Fremont isn't the City and County of San Francisco, so I'm not clear on why you imply SF rules would apply there.

Me too! Only stick with the big names tho. They are priced for bankruptcy so it's now or never.

Why would you want to buy shares of a company that's likely to go BK?

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think we can be worried about production and demand at the same time..

For Q1 results I'm more worried about production with the factory shutdown and some problems with deliveries if areas/countries lock down.

For the whole of 2020, I'm more worried about demand, not that there is a definite indication demand is a problem so far, but any recession will lower demand.

GF Nevada might also be closing:- Possible Giga Nevada Shutdown : teslamotors

There are multiple reasons why Coronavirus may close factories, and multiple reasons why it may reduce demand, but with a 5-10 year investment horizon, there are few reasons for me to be concerned, I think this will largely be over in 12-18 months.

This does show why GF Shanghai, GF Berlin and GF Some-where-central-US are important, multiple factories means less chance of being overly impacted by Coronavirus.. or some other factory closing event.

Had the virus hit Q1 2019 or Q2 2018, I would be a lot more concerned, but Tesla and Elon are great at surviving whatever the odds..

As I said earlier, congratulations to all who sold higher and will manage to buy back lower...

Tesla can shuffle some inventory around, but Q1 deliveries will take a hit, I think that significantly lessens the chances of a quick rebound, but IMO short term price movements in Tesla are very hard to predict...