Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stars aligned]

So US inventory levels seems high. Is this the opportunity for Elon to break the wave in Q2? Keep shipping to Europe in June with sales in early Q3.

Interesting that Tesla haven't reduced prices or given away FSD etc. This is Elon thinking that we are going to crack C19 and everything will be back to normal.

It makes sense to keep prices high. As demand is lower due to coronavirus, production is even more restricted.

Production in Fremont has stopped for the foreseeable future, and if they can't produce till June they might consider rising prices for the remaining inventory. When they start production again, it will initially be slow until everything is calibrated.

Hope once they start again it will be with next gen S & X and maybe with considerable improvements in the 3. The chance to upgrade manufacturing lines and supply chain is now.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Review of the second turd:
Audi E-tron Sportback 55 2020 review | Autocar
No mention of Tesla - comparison is with IPace.

ETron Sportback:
95 kWh
277 miles
0-62 in 5.7 s (in "boost mode")
$99,310

Model X Long Range Plus:
351 mi
0-60 in 4.4 s
$84,990
Free Supercharging

Model X Performance:
305 mi
0-60 in 2.7 s
$104,990
Free Supercharging

 

[RobStark]

they might consider rising prices for the remaining inventory.

This makes economic sense.

Limited resource, you raise prices, and allocate the product to people that most need/want it.

But Tesla would be bashed as price gouging during pandemic.

Don't think it is worth extra cash and eats up some of the goodwill gained by giving away ventilators.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Futures up a bit as well as TSLA.
Waiting for more analysts to mention strategic advantage of Tesla to sell cars online.

 

[Stars aligned]

This makes economic sense.

Limited resource, you raise prices, and allocate the product to people that most need/want it.

But Tesla would be bashed as price gouging during pandemic.

Don't think it is worth extra cash and eats up some of the goodwill gained by giving away ventilators.

That's a valid thought but then others would buy up inventory and sell the cars at a higher price. Difficult to prevent that.

On the other hand even if they sell remaining inventory at higher price it wouldn't improve their bottom line significantly.

More important is to use the idle time for upgrades and come out with improved products after the shutdown. I wonder also if for some models Maxwell battery technology will be available and if Panasonic uses the idle time to upgrade their lines in Nevada.

 

[RobStark]

That's a valid thought but then others would buy up inventory and sell the cars at a higher price. Difficult to prevent that.

That is always the defense of price gougers during a crisis.

 

[FrankSG]

I can remember a time on here when the TSLA share price was approaching $900 and lots of people were winning big on call options, we had overnight instant millionaires ... while it lasted.

I thought at the time, that will never happen again, and it probably will not.

A precondition is option writers writing those kind of options at attractive prices, at this stage they all remember what happened last time around...

However long it lasts, CV19 is not permanent....

I don't trade options myself, but some people here were smart and/or lucky enough to win last time around.

Option premiums save to have dropped a lot over the past 2 days actually. I'm not saying they're cheap now, but let's just say they're looking less expensive today.

But yeah, overall I agree. Seems like market makers have somewhat learned their lesson and adjusted options prices accordingly for the time being. The TSLA options market is massive, and they can't afford to sell options for cheap on a stock this volatile.

 

[Stars aligned]

That is always the defense of price gougers during a crisis.

And that's exactly the reason Tesla should act as said before

 

[BenPrice]

Option premiums save to have dropped a lot over the past 2 days actually. I'm not saying they're cheap now, but let's just say they're looking less expensive today.

But yeah, overall I agree. Seems like market makers have somewhat learned their lesson and adjusted options prices accordingly for the time being. The TSLA options market is massive, and they can't afford to sell options for cheap on a stock this volatile.

I’m following max pains movement and the news cycle daily and decided to open a new position yesterday near close - but my position is tiny relative to previous ones.

I’ll need an upward overreaction today to profit, but the downside risk is minuscule.

Hoping to flip it today if P&D isn’t released today due to it becoming a Friday news dump, or ride it into next week if P&D is anything but catastrophic.

Regardless,

I’ll probably keep fishing like this to hopefully catch any near term upward rush, but won’t be opening any large positions until VIX normalizes.

I guess my math is one 8x gain erases 5 1x losses. I’m willing to fish for that, especially considering I’ll never lose the full 1x ever.

 

[RobStark]

And that's exactly the reason Tesla should act as said before

For reasons stated Tesla should not raise prices during pandemic.

Marginal cash from raising prices is insignificant. PR hit could be very significant.

 

[HG Wells]

Any gueses on the unemployment report at 830 EST?
5 million ?

EDIT: Came in at 6.6 million new.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I’m following max pains movement and the news cycle daily and decided to open a new position yesterday near close - but my position is tiny relative to previous ones.

I’ll need an upward overreaction today to profit, but the downside risk is minuscule.

Hoping to flip it today if P&D isn’t released today due to it becoming a Friday news dump, or ride it into next week if P&D is anything but catastrophic.

Regardless,

I’ll probably keep fishing like this to hopefully catch any near term upward rush, but won’t be opening any large positions until VIX normalizes.

I guess my math is one 8x gain erases 5 1x losses. I’m willing to fish for that, especially considering I’ll never lose the full 1x ever.

I'm trying to target $600 for Friday, but SP needed to drop a bit more in pre-market today to make it cheap enough. Of course oil traders had to listen to something the Cheeto said and now I'm not gonna get my price. Good luck, I think it may work out this week, but if not the combo of earnings and Battery Day is another shot right around the corner.

 

[powertoold]

6.6m new unemployment claims in the last week

 

[BenPrice]

6.6m new unemployment claims in the last week

How spy futures are green given that is proof of full, unadulterated market manipulation. It’s just the fed balance sheet going up at this point and not reflective of economic reality, which will devalue the dollar.

This is catastrophic news.

 

[FrankSG]

I’ll probably keep fishing like this to hopefully catch any near term upward rush, but won’t be opening any large positions until VIX normalizes.

You're expecting TSLA options IV to drop when the VIX drops? I'm skeptical about that, because TSLA options have been more expensive ever since Feb 3rd and 4th.

I'm trying to target $600 for Friday, but SP needed to drop a bit more in pre-market today to make it cheap enough. Of course oil traders had to listen to something the Cheeto said and now I'm not gonna get my price. Good luck, I think it may work out this week, but if not the combo of earnings and Battery Day is another shot right around the corner.

What kind of options are you looking at?

 

[BenPrice]

You're expecting TSLA options IV to drop when the VIX drops? I'm skeptical about that, because TSLA options have been more expensive ever since Feb 3rd and 4th.



What kind of options are you looking at?

I’m just unable to make the math work in my favor with volatility this high. But in fairness this level of volatility is entirely unprecedented.

I’m targeting options that are bottoming out given IV holding a lower baseline, such as next week 600s purchased yesterday at 5 min to close. A further 5%+ drop in Tesla sp will cause the options to hold value due to increase in IV. This protects me to snipe at the upswing, but I’m also targeting option contract values Well above max pain to avoid ever entering the money.

My maths show I could lose 30% if I execute poorly and also everything stacks up against me, but returns above 500% if I catch the predicted upward movement to max pain.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What kind of options are you looking at?

Was trying for Friday $600s at $.20 for a P/D homerun. Probably stupid idea anyway.

 

[Prunesquallor]

6.6m new unemployment claims in the last week

Pre-market SP 480 and falling. My 460 buy may get triggered today.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market SP 480 and falling. My 460 buy may get triggered today.

Yeah that 6.6 million Unemployment number is going to be hard to overcome.

 

[WarpedOne]

SP movements during this turmoil mean nothing, the question is only will Tesla survive?
If you think it won't, sell and go away.

If you think it will, well ... don't sell and buy the sweet sweet dips.
I got my 460, now I'm waiting for 230, than 115...
If they never come ... so be it.