Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

A lower demand of what? A particular model of car or batteries?

We know there are zero demand issues with batteries. In fact the backlog for battery usage is enormous. Semi, roadster 2.0, and powerwalls are being choked. So if there's a drop in demand for the Model 3, then good..finally Tesla can pump out some high margin Semi and roadster 2.0s. We are also seeing massive growth in peaker plant demands, and mega pack demand.

Their cars are just a medium to sell batteries. The demand for their batteries are in the range of 100-500gigawatthr right now while only producing 50/year. So yeah there might be a demand issue with certain medium I guess..but does that matter as long as the revenue for batteries keep rolling in?

We _may_ end up in a global recession. That's not a fact, but is a possibility. It should be considered. Citing optimistic projections without being mindful of macroeconomic conditions is just wishful thinking and will cost you money (assuming you bought short-term call options based on an expectation that the stock will be back to ATH's soon).

 

[sparcs]

Tesla’s Lost End-of-Quarter Push Does Number on Deliveries

Analysts on average estimate Tesla delivered roughly 78,100 cars worldwide last quarter -- the first to include hand-overs of the new Model Y crossover. While that would be a jump from a disappointing result a year ago, it also would mark a more than 30% drop from the record deliveries Tesla reported for the last three months of 2019.

probably already discussed, but there is so much nonsense going on in this thread that it's hard to figure out anymore.

 

[StealthP3D]

SOO much this... People on this form getting all upset because they decided to be WSB autists and YOLO their money by dumping it into $TSLA at $900 saying can't this can't go tits up...

You definitely deserve to lose money if you are going to invest millions in $TSLA stonk, and then either buy/sell in AH based on a single person's form post, without bothing to verify the source.

You completely missed the point. Blatantly misleading information shouldn't be posted in the first place. Just because people should verify before acting doesn't mean it's OK to post BS.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We _may_ end up in a global recession. That's not a fact, but is a possibility. It should be considered. Citing optimistic projections without being mindful of macroeconomic conditions is just wishful thinking and will cost you money (assuming you bought short-term call options based on an expectation that the stock will be back to ATH's soon).

Singuy's post is actually very mindful of a recession. I for one am hoping Tesla has the ability to push their Semi production plans ahead and start sooner than planned with more production volume than planned because the Semi is a recession proof product. If their consumer demand drops some, use the batteries to build more Semi's. When recessions hit, companies will be looking for ways to slash their costs and the up front cost of buying Tesla Semi's will be nothing compared to the annual savings they'd get.

 

[dc_h]

Any news from Fremont? Speculation that they would improve line processes and I speculated that they would increase Model Y allocation from 1 line to 2 lines. Demand and logistics will be affected by C19, hopefully much less for Tesla then others, but many people will carry on and assume (rightfully) that we will return to some new normal.
Also interested if anyone has insight into home delivery processes? Sounds like Tesla is ramping this up globally, but I have not seen a lot of data to support.

 

[HG Wells]

after hours has gone GREEN

 

[StealthP3D]

If their consumer demand drops some, use the batteries to build more Semi's. When recessions hit, companies will be looking for ways to slash their costs and the up front cost of buying Tesla Semi's will be nothing compared to the annual savings they'd get.

I'm sure that's been Tesla's backup plan all along - get the Semi designed and ready to ramp production so it can be started the moment consumer demand slackens due to a recession. Of course, Tesla doesn't want to come out and say this, but anyone who understands this back-up plan knows how much value this adds to the stock. Having a strong backup plan in the event of a recession is golden and makes me more willing to pay more for the stock and hold a higher percentage of it in my portfolio.

Also, a recession would facilitate the build-out of Superchargers for Semis in a quicker and more cost-effective manner. That said, I'm not sure this will be a long enough recession for that.

 

[phantasms]

My tax accountant told me the solar and EV tax credits must be used in the tax year they are earned (cannot be rolled forward to future years).

True of the EV credits but not true of the solar/battery/geo type credits, those roll over.

 

[gerebgraus]

I got to the point in the article where it said the author just past the title. Yup....Linette Lopez. Closed web page.

If you read the article and substitute "some employees" with "some disgruntled employees" then it becomes interesting. Lopez does not make stuff up. Her distortion is that she pretends that the disgruntled employees are representative. You just need to filter that out. Most Tesla employees including production associates are deeply committed to the mission. They are not there for the paycheck only.

 

[Singuy]

Any news from Fremont? Speculation that they would improve line processes and I speculated that they would increase Model Y allocation from 1 line to 2 lines. Demand and logistics will be affected by C19, hopefully much less for Tesla then others, but many people will carry on and assume (rightfully) that we will return to some new normal.
Also interested if anyone has insight into home delivery processes? Sounds like Tesla is ramping this up globally, but I have not seen a lot of data to support.

A reddit user just wrote this.

"I drove by the Fremont plant yesterday. Some massive changes happening, almost like when they added the first model 3 line but not quite that extensive."

Tesla is planning to quickly reopen Gigafactory New York to make ventilators for COVID-19 and also in Fremont : teslamotors

So take it with a grain of salt.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

They like the volatility. Let it run up a bit only to dash hopes. Recognized this phenom over the years with TSLA.
I cannot be shaken, but my timing is usually off trying, and against all advice here. Wish I had more. Might sell a bit in Q2. But always only a bit, maintaining a healthy dose at all times.

Maybe with this downtime they can automate more at the Fremont factory and then test it at Shanghai factory.

 

[Zero CO2]

SOO much this... People on this form getting all upset because they decided to be WSB autists and YOLO their money by dumping it into $TSLA at $900 saying can't this can't go tits up...

You definitely deserve to lose money if you are going to invest millions in $TSLA stonk, and then either buy/sell in AH based on a single person's form post, without bothing to verify the source.

You clearly missed the actual point ... and maybe investing a few bucks on some English lessons wouldn't hurt .. online courses are very popular right now

 

[MC3OZ]

Singuy's post is actually very mindful of a recession. I for one am hoping Tesla has the ability to push their Semi production plans ahead and start sooner than planned with more production volume than planned because the Semi is a recession proof product. If their consumer demand drops some, use the batteries to build more Semi's. When recessions hit, companies will be looking for ways to slash their costs and the up front cost of buying Tesla Semi's will be nothing compared to the annual savings they'd get.

I don't think it is just the Semi...

All Tesla products have higher than normal demand, (when available) in particular:-

• Semi
• Cybertruck
• Plaid Model S
• Model Y

Tesla has $8B in the bank, my game plan would be $4B expansion, $4B survival.
That $4B expansion prioritises desirable products with reference to the projected demand and/or reservations.
The early phases of expansion are clearing, foundations, construction, planning,ordering etc. this takes time but the majority of the capex comes later in the project, negotiate good terms on equipment purchases or keep the option to defer open a long as possible.

Expanding the ability to build desirable products maximises revenue and ensures less money is needed for survival. Yes, it is a bit more risky, but Fremont being closed has me thinking this, and I bet Elon is at least considering the options.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Had some additional discussion with various personnel re substituting rims on inventory cars. It’s a no go. We can’t make it work without spending way more than it should cost. Not blaming Tesla as they know their business model. But it’s frustrating seeing an inventory car that’s mostly right except for the rims and Tesla wont facilitate the sale even if we pay the upgrade fee.

First world problems, I know. Lot more serious things happening in the world right now.

 

[MC3OZ]

Had some additional discussion with various personnel re substituting rims on inventory cars. It’s a no go. We can’t make it work without spending way more than it should cost. Not blaming Tesla as they know their business model. But it’s frustrating seeing an inventory car that’s mostly right except for the rims and Tesla wont facilitate the sale even if we pay the upgrade fee.

First world problems, I know. Lot more serious things happening in the world right now.

Unless the are short of rims, this seems like they are not desperate to move inventory..

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Unless the are short of rims, this seems like they are not desperate to move inventory..

I would think you are right. And I guess as someone who wants to see them stay healthy that’s good. But as someone who was hoping to not have to wait at least another three months it is frustrating. Again though. Giving myself a smack, there are people with real problems in the world right now.

 

[Steve m]

A one day vacation is a very lenient rap for such blatant FUD mischief.I support a much stronger admonition.

More or less permanently on my ignore list

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Apr 01, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $494.41
Volume: 13,393,774
Traded: $6,622,008,417.59 ($6.62 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 97.32%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 61.26% (79th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / NASDAQ Total Vol = 46.03% (51st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "Macro ratchet: One for you; Two for me"

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’m weary but not wavering. Tesla is the future...and...the present.

 

[scaesare]

Damnit...you got me....what?

Raoud Scheduled Disassembly.

As opposed to a RUD.....