Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

Shouldn't the margins on china made cars be higher than when they were shipped from Cali? I mean it's not a massive difference but every little bit counts.

Who thinks well close above 580 tomorrow?

They would be but IIRC they sell them at a lower cost for similar margins which gives them a larger consumer base.


Not sure why so many people expected catastrophic production. I would've made a bigger bet today if i knew the report would be out AH today and not tomorrow. Oh well, rough week over nothin. I didn't sell a thing.

 

[Pras]

Disclosure: after I read that Chanos is maximum short, I bought 100 more shares.

 

[Dare]

Disclosure: after I read that Chanos is maximum short, I bought 100 more shares.

I bought more TSLA and I bought LK at the close just because Chanos shorted it too.

 

[StealthP3D]

2019 Form 5695. Line 16 says:

So yes, solar credits can be carried forward. But not past 2022 unless the law is changed. You need a new accountant.

My accountant told me it couldn't be carried forward after the tax credit expired. Which was true at the time. And, according to info here, still true. I believe the credit has been due to expire more than once but was renewed. Which all makes sense. And it makes me happy I don't need to fire the accounting firm I've been using for more than 20 years.

 

[juanmedina]

Entire auto market is down double digits Tesla is up double digits this Is a blood bath.

Just murder.

This is the biggest beat in automotive EVER

This is beyond my wildest Bull expectations and I’m holding options such a *sugar* show.

This is next level.


I just made 30x I’ll buy another Tesla Rolf.

I’m rich lololol.

Attached photo of my last free Tesla only $110,000k

Rofl imma get another


Hahaha **** you stock market

I bought one $600 call for tomorrow lol and a Jun22 $750 and 10 shares.

 

[junas]

Very close to gaap profits, but it's clear we need some of these:

• FCA credits (I feel like Europe could bring a surprise here)
• Tesla energy profits (clearly ramping up recently)
• Stronger margins than Q4 (Shanghai & Model Y margins are big questions, and lockdown has negative effect of course)
• Another surprise one off gain

S&P500 now or later it doesn't really matter IMO. Later it happens stronger is the $$$ effect.

 

[adiggs]

Very close to gaap profits, but it's clear we need some of these:

• FCA credits (I feel like Europe could bring a surprise here)
• Tesla energy profits (clearly ramping up recently)
• Stronger margins than Q4 (Shanghai & Model Y margins are big questions, and lockdown has negative effect of course)
• Another surprise one off gain

S&P500 now or later it doesn't really matter IMO. Later it happens stronger is the $$$ effect.

There's the previous year loss tax credits (don't know what they're actually called). Might be reasonable to claim some of those.


My thinking is that S&P 500 inclusion brings some beneficial protection from short shenanigans. You have a whole lot of buyers in the initial inclusion. Then you also have ownership across a much bigger universe of mutual funds and what not; with more visibility and wide share holding base, it'll be harder to manipulate the shares day to day.

It's this latter point that might have Tesla thinking that now is the time - especially with CV going on, presumably Q2 will be more challenging to generate the trailing 12 month GAAP profit.

 

[EV forever]

Very close to gaap profits, but it's clear we need some of these:

• FCA credits (I feel like Europe could bring a surprise here)
• Tesla energy profits (clearly ramping up recently)
• Stronger margins than Q4 (Shanghai & Model Y margins are big questions, and lockdown has negative effect of course)
• Another surprise one off gain

S&P500 now or later it doesn't really matter IMO. Later it happens stronger is the $$$ effect.

Since market cap was below 100B at quarter close, would they be able to save the 100M that has to be set aside for Elon? If so, would it help with GAAP profit?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So what's the over/under on Q1 profit now?

Also I wonder how Q2 is going. With Fremont shut down, Tesla can only deliver cars until they are completely out of stock. Then we have to wait until this ends, and that is an indeterminate endpoint at this time.

 

[StealthP3D]

For those needing a good laugh, Mark Speigel's appearance on Yahoo Finance yesterday:
Tesla Q1 revenue ‘will be an absolute disaster’: Stanphyl Capital

He was basically frothing at the mouth so much the hosts were incredulous. They tried to inject a little reality into the situation but Mark was oblivious to it. The male host looked like he was thinking someone should walk up behind him and slip a straightjacket on him.

Also, his Stanphyl March update letter:

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2020.pdf - Simplify your life

I think it's telling as to his state of mind how his investor update letter has 14 pages, 12 and a half of which are dedicated to updating the 7 primary positions in the fund and, of those 12.5 pages, 10.5 pages are dedicated to trashing Tesla and the other 2 pages to the remaining 6 positions.

It's pretty obvious his fund only exists as a vehicle to bash Tesla.

 

[junas]

There's the previous year loss tax credits (don't know what they're actually called). Might be reasonable to claim some of those.

My thinking is that S&P 500 inclusion brings some beneficial protection from short shenanigans. You have a whole lot of buyers in the initial inclusion. Then you also have ownership across a much bigger universe of mutual funds and what not; with more visibility and wide share holding base, it'll be harder to manipulate the shares day to day.

It's this latter point that might have Tesla thinking that now is the time - especially with CV going on, presumably Q2 will be more challenging to generate the trailing 12 month GAAP profit.

Deferred tax credits cannot be realized unless Tesla is 'more likely than not' to be profitable going forward. This is clearly not the case before virus is gone.

I agree to your comment about short shenanigans. However, as long as FUD is not destroying sales it's just beneficial to us to have shorts. They are just bringing us better accumulation prices. Without them I would have paid probably 2x price last summer. Eventually when S&P500 happens and story continues we'll miss these current prices.

 

[Prunesquallor]

For those needing a good laugh, Mark Speigel's appearance on Yahoo Finance yesterday:
Tesla Q1 revenue ‘will be an absolute disaster’: Stanphyl Capital

He was basically frothing at the mouth so much the hosts were incredulous. They tried to inject a little reality into the situation but Mark was oblivious to it. The male host looked like he was thinking someone should walk up behind him and slip a straightjacket on him.

Also, his Stanphyl March update letter:

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - March 2020.pdf - Simplify your life

I think it's telling as to his state of mind how his investor update letter has 14 pages, 12 and a half of which are dedicated to updating the 7 primary positions in the fund and, of those 12.5 pages, 10.5 pages are dedicated to trashing Tesla and the other 2 pages to the remaining 6 positions.

It's pretty obvious his fund only exists as a vehicle to bash Tesla.

Jeeeezus. Doesn’t he realize they put him on for comedic value?

 

[SunCatcher]

Jeeeezus. Doesn’t he realize they put him on for comedic value?

More like clowns interviewing a fellow clown.

 

[Gifford 3]

Brought more shares before close.

 

[MC3OZ]

What I want to see at the end of the year is cash position = $8b - capex.

I'm not particularly concerned what capex is, as long is any money spent helps achieve this aim.

So I now think :-

Q1 cash = $8b - capex.
Q2 cash = $8b - capex - possible Q2 reduction
Q3 cash = $8b - capex - possible Q2 reduction + possible Q3 increase
Q4 cash = $8b - capex - possible Q2 reduction + possible Q3 increase + likely Q4 increase,

What we now want is:-

possible Q2 reduction <= possible Q3 increase + likely Q4 increase,

Ending the year with:-

Q4 cash = $8b - capex

Achieve that and the shorts are going to repeat history, by shorting low and covering high, they always do.

So IMO it is worth spending a bit more capex earlier, if that is going to increase revenue and improve the cash position, obviously that is attractive products like Model Y, Plaid Model S and the Semi ... Cybertruck is unfortunately off the table as I don;t think it can make any difference in 2020.

As I see GF (Texas?):-
Construction - Model Y + Cybertruck (2020)
Batteries -Cybertruck + (Model Y?)
Stamping - Model Y + Cybertruck
Casting - Model Y + (Cybertruck?)
Folding - Cybertruck
Paint - Model Y.

Anyway it is hard to see GF (Texas?): progressing beyond construction in 2020....

The following are possible:-

Fremont - Model Y + Plaid Model S
Nevada?- Semi
China - Model Y

All of these can make a difference....

Berlin - Construction in 2020 - no real difference for 2020.

 

[SMAlset]

They are sold according to Ford. They probably count that way the moment they are loaded onto a car carrier.

Yes onus is reflected on the balance sheets of the dealerships to get them “really sold” and in the hands of end customers, cutting prices and making deals (all off their potential profit margin). They pay for lot storage too if needed. You can see why they can be motivated to sell other product and services to their customers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Deferred tax credits cannot be realized unless Tesla is 'more likely than not' to be profitable going forward. This is clearly not the case before virus is gone.

Yeah I think Tesla is better off using Q1 as a loss and holding more one-time items for Q2 because I think they can definitely say they'll be profitable on an on-going basis starting in Q3(Model Y fully ramped, MIC Model 3 fully ramped, more consistent and ongoing FCA credits and FSD quarterly revenue) and thus they can claim the deferred tax credits on the Q2 earnings.

 

[Fred42]

If the virus had not happened we would probably be crossing over 1k now or with earnings. These low SPs are frustrating but I think there will be even less competition when the dust settles. No way GM will spend those billions on EVs now and the start up threats will be set back.

Obviously this is bad for the planet but good for my retirement.

Car and Driver says GM has "paused development" of several models not including the Hummer, Bolt EUV and Cadillac EV SUV.
GM Delays Updated Chevy, GMC, and Cadillac Models: Report

 

[adiggs]

Deferred tax credits cannot be realized unless Tesla is 'more likely than not' to be profitable going forward. This is clearly not the case before virus is gone.

I agree to your comment about short shenanigans. However, as long as FUD is not destroying sales it's just beneficial to us to have shorts. They are just bringing us better accumulation prices. Without them I would have paid probably 2x price last summer. Eventually when S&P500 happens and story continues we'll miss these current prices.

A few observations. I disagree with the "clearly not the case before virus is gone". I don't disagree that you might be right about inability to profit before is virus is gone - only that profitability can be so easily dismissed. What I see is a company with an unknown level of demand - the virus might help us begin to realize what the demand level is. I don't have a hard time seeing the company growing through the virus (once Fremont is reopened), even while the rest of the car industry is shutting down.


The only reason I threw in the deferred tax credits is those might enable TSLA to get over the line. Maybe they're over the line anyway. More generally, my assumption about that criteria is that it isn't dependent on quarter after quarter profits. My understanding is that once the company exits the state where never ending losses have ended, and profits are showing up with some frequency, then it's time to start realizing those deferred tax assets. And the way I read Q4 and guidance, TSLA is out of the woods on profits. And therefore, this might be another line item for a good Q1.

 

[Mokuzai]

Oh man...thank you Benzinga, I haven't laughed that hard in some time now.

Edit: I guess it's Ameritrade attributing the note and ignoring the after market move but still.