Elon has ruled out shipping Model Y to Europe for now, for the record, Karen is slightly sceptical.
But I am assuming that at face value this is correct for now, Tesla sees no problem with Model Y demand in the US for now.
The demand scenario in Europe is similar to Model S/X before the Model 3 was released, Model Y isn't an option, buyers have to wait, or go with another car.
So in terms of driving Q2 demand there are now 3 options on the table:-
- Ramp up the number of Model Ys that can be built, and add variants.
- Lower the price of Model 3, and add variants.
- Release a really good version of FSD.
They can of course do all 3.
Getting a really good capital efficient result for 1. 2. may depend on the capacity of the Model Y casting machine.
So far we have no idea what the run rate of that machine is, we have never seen a video or a photo as far as I'm aware.
But I can think of 2 options for lifting the run rate:-
- Have a sandwich like stack of moulds all cast at the same time.
- Have a robotic arm place and remove moulds.
Anything which increases the run rate needs more moulds which is an expense, but definitely worth it.
If the run rate supports it, one option is to cast the rear section for Model 3, freeing up robots for more Model Y production,, when the factory is closed is the ideal time to make this change.
Is this possible? It may be if they always planned to do it at some stage, COVID-19 may have simply altered the timeline.
I'm getting into speculation here and I could be wrong. But if I'm wrong there are other options Tesla might take.