Yea who would have predicted Tesla letting employees go, shuttling down a factory, in the middle of a pandemic, and their stock price is surging. If I had just been given the headlines the last two weeks I’d be waiting for it to be under 100.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is why it's generally a bad idea to try and time the market. In the short term it could go up, down, or sideways, and it's anybody's guess as to which it will be.
I've been a shareholder since 2015, and I haven't 'seen' my investment cut in half a single time.
Because the only number I actually pay attention to is my # of shares
Elon has a history of making things that seem like they have lottery odds a reality.
If we understand the process, FSD isn't a lottery..
The timing is a lottery, the outcome is a practical certainty IMO.
I've seen nothing to suggest they need lidar, all indications are the current sensor suite is adequate, blinding of individual cameras is an issue.
So I can't say for certain that it will work, but I think it will work, and more importantly Elon and Karpathy both seem to think it will work.
Even allowing for their optimistic nature and some bias, what are the chances both Elon and Karpathy are wrong? ... close to zero IMO.
What are the chances Elon and Karpathy are wrong on the time-frame? ... let's just say non-zero.
Well, there was some 'News' that came out today After-hours:
TSLA Short Interest was UP 3.53M shares as of Mar 31, 2020 which is the first increase in TSLA SI since Oct 15, 2019.
Hmmm... SP swung wildly during this period. This data is nearly useless.
View attachment 530970
After-hrs volume was real, too:
View attachment 530984
That describes how I saw the stock was not tracking the macros as it was shoved down repeatedly, but then sneaks some in here and there.
So the world is sitting at home (maybe in their Tesla) on the internet, getting savey about Tesla's future, and watching the competition push out EV release dates. I bet this was afterhours retail folks moving retirement funds from like GOLD to TSLA. You know, into a higher a valued company.
Breaking: Tesla Introduces China-Made Performance and Long Range RWD Model 3
that should help boost demand even more
that should help boost demand even more
Proving again that Ihor's S3 numbers are not of any value for TSLA, as of 4/1 he said 15.94 million shares shorted when it was really 19.69 million shares. He said down 745k in 30 days when it was up 3 million.
So that just leaves the S&X to import. (I guess the 3 LR AWD too, but I'm guess they just won't offer that.)
Alas, it appears my speed reading after a couple of evening beers was more speed than reading.
But to address your actual comment around MBS defaults. 4 more months is probably about right for some junior notes, however I would expect the senior notes to last a little longer. Most securitisation structures have liquidity and general reserves/facilities that equal 1%-5% of the outstanding balance of the assets. Additionally many have features like "principal to pay interest" where the principal component of the mortgage repayment is "borrowed" to cover a shortfall in interest and repaid when arrears are caught up. These features should cover 1-2 years of senior note interest payments and avoid defaults in the short term. Ratings agencies test specifically for these sorts of cashflow stresses when assigning ratings as can be seen in the rather boringly named "Appendix 4: Cash Flow Analysis" of Moody’s Approach to Rating US RMBS Using the MILAN Framework (PDF warning)
The big questions are how long will the recession last and how fast will the recovery be. At the moment, most people should still have some reserves of cash to last a few months and they should still have equity in their houses as we haven't seen a decline in house prices as was seen in the 08-09 shock - which should make them less inclined to just mail back the keys. If the lockdown carries on i'd expect house prices to tank which, along with continued higher mortgage arrears, will have a much bigger impact on MBS.
Source: Have worked in bank treasuries structuring ABS/RMBS transactions.
I've been a shareholder since 2015, and I haven't 'seen' my investment cut in half a single time.
Because the only number I actually pay attention to is my # of shares
Seeing your posts makes me feel old. pre Apr 2013, stock price was about $35. After the Q1 2013 earnings call was a rocket ship ride.
Anyway, there were more than 3 events (the most significant ones highlighted):
battery fires - Sep 2013 (stock dropped from ~190 to under 120)
model X launch hell - Jan 2016 (stock dropped from ~ 240 to 150)
funding secured SEC lawsuit - Aug 2018 (stock dropped from ~ 390 to under 260)
Q1 2019 deliveries - Dec 2018 (stock dropped from ~360 to 180) the last time that FUD had any real significant credit left.
Covid-19 - Feb 2020 (stock dropped from 915+ down to ~360)
With Feb 2020 being so recent, it should serve to remind us that there will be future events. Ride it out if you can stomach the volatility, trade it if you have the guts, or diversify if you must.
Agree on your comments on demand.
With GF1 being the only source of battery supply for 3/Y for the Fremont plant we should hope that the Y cannibalises demand for 3 while there is limited supply of cells, that will push vehicle sales towards the higher margin variants of 3/Y and extend the wait times for low margin SR versions.
Feeling pretty bullish again.
Imo the most important thing right now is that Tesla have learned a lot over the last decade. They started from scratch, had to learn a lot of things and catch up with a competition with had 50 years headstart. And they are there now! Model 3 ramp was tricky because it was new, Model Y is going much faster. Model 3 had a lot of issues Munro didn’t like, Model Y is getting mostly praise. I think a good analogy is SpaceX, their first lauches failed, but now their simulations are accurate so when they launch a new project, the chance of it being a failure is many times smaller than their first launches. Same with Tesla’s factory designs, their simulations are much more accurate and their ramps run into much fewer problems. Thus we can expect that Model Y will ramp much faster than Model 3, Model 3 Shanghai will ramp much faster than Freemont Model 3, Model Y China will ramp faster than Model 3 and Cybertruck will ramp fast. Because Tesla has learned and their methods are now verified and honed.
Sure there will be new unforseen setbacks, with Giga Berlin foundation seems to be one. But there will be fewer and fewer of these as the company learns. This is the main point. Tesla FSD Chip design will be better, cheaper and have less production issues, because Tesla has learned. FSD is delayed, but we can bet that when Tesla decides to do FSD for boats, eVTOL, self driving ventilators or whatever, they will run into fewer of these issues, because they have learned.
By doing everything in house, having phyics first principle, by having access to highly talented engineers working long hours, they learn. And they learn faster than the compition outsourcing almolst everything, having many long time workers resistant to change, struggling to attract top talent.
From here they are very close to just needing to scale up things they already have done. It will be a lot of copypasteing lines, turning the data crank, letting their engineers optimize parts and hiring tons of service staff and train them.
I expect 50% growth per year for the next 5 years and I see very little that will stop them. Elon can pretty much focus on SpaceX if he wanted and the company would just run itself at this point. Not that I think that he will, it is such a lucrative opportunity that he will want to optimize it even more.
I am gonna guess Shanghai 150k for 2020, 400k for 2021, Giga Berlin start production Q2 2021, 100k cars 2021, 400k cars 2022. Total 600k 2020, 1.1M 2021 1.8M 2022.
Imo the most important thing right now is that Tesla have learned a lot over the last decade. They started from scratch, had to learn a lot of things and catch up with a competition with had 50 years headstart. And they are there now! Model 3 ramp was tricky because it was new, Model Y is going much faster. Model 3 had a lot of issues Munro didn’t like, Model Y is getting mostly praise. I think a good analogy is SpaceX, their first lauches failed, but now their simulations are accurate so when they launch a new project, the chance of it being a failure is many times smaller than their first launches. Same with Tesla’s factory designs, their simulations are much more accurate and their ramps run into much fewer problems. Thus we can expect that Model Y will ramp much faster than Model 3, Model 3 Shanghai will ramp much faster than Freemont Model 3, Model Y China will ramp faster than Model 3 and Cybertruck will ramp fast. Because Tesla has learned and their methods are now verified and honed.
Sure there will be new unforseen setbacks, with Giga Berlin foundation seems to be one. But there will be fewer and fewer of these as the company learns. This is the main point. Tesla FSD Chip design will be better, cheaper and have less production issues, because Tesla has learned. FSD is delayed, but we can bet that when Tesla decides to do FSD for boats, eVTOL, self driving ventilators or whatever, they will run into fewer of these issues, because they have learned.
By doing everything in house, having phyics first principle, by having access to highly talented engineers working long hours, they learn. And they learn faster than the compition outsourcing almolst everything, having many long time workers resistant to change, struggling to attract top talent.
From here they are very close to just needing to scale up things they already have done. It will be a lot of copypasteing lines, turning the data crank, letting their engineers optimize parts and hiring tons of service staff and train them.
I expect 50% growth per year for the next 5 years and I see very little that will stop them. Elon can pretty much focus on SpaceX if he wanted and the company would just run itself at this point. Not that I think that he will, it is such a lucrative opportunity that he will want to optimize it even more.
I am gonna guess Shanghai 150k for 2020, 400k for 2021, Giga Berlin start production Q2 2021, 100k cars 2021, 400k cars 2022. Total 600k 2020, 1.1M 2021 1.8M 2022.
Even if we hit great depression levels of unemployment in the near term, what really forced the economy into the great depression was the austerity policies being pursued prior to the new deal which exaggerated the supply declines in the economy. This time the money printers are whirring away at full speed and there are further stimulus packages being planned (e.g. multi trillion dollar infrastructure programs) which can be deployed if needed.
Singer3000
Member
Macros:
I know several fairly big money institutional prop traders and brokers who see the flows. They're not a statistically significant sample but they all report to me that a) the recent market rally is the mother of all short covering rallies, b) long term money like pension funds are not accumulating stocks, c) the rally is largely on thin volumes and very low quality.
None purport to know when sentiment will change and what the trigger will be but they are all positioning for markets to find now lows before the year is out.
Take this on board or not as you will. If they are right, it is naive to think TSLA wouldn't be dragged down with the market.
I know several fairly big money institutional prop traders and brokers who see the flows. They're not a statistically significant sample but they all report to me that a) the recent market rally is the mother of all short covering rallies, b) long term money like pension funds are not accumulating stocks, c) the rally is largely on thin volumes and very low quality.
None purport to know when sentiment will change and what the trigger will be but they are all positioning for markets to find now lows before the year is out.
Take this on board or not as you will. If they are right, it is naive to think TSLA wouldn't be dragged down with the market.
A more interesting question is whether pension funds have money on the sidelines, and if they do, are they researching the best bets, or timing the market?
Singer3000
Member
Well someone was selling in March, so one assumes there's lots of money on the sidelines
I completely agree. I think it's pretty much a certainty that Tesla will dominate EVs, autonomy, and transportation as a whole.
The only question left for me is the degree of Tesla's future dominance. In 2040, will Tesla simply be the biggest player, or is 90% that moves over roads going to be in some way related to Tesla?
Every day that the competition doesn't change course (Waymo, Toyota), every new failure by the incumbents (Taycan, ID.3), and every time Tesla increases its speed of innovation (Autonomy Day, Giga Shanghai, Battery day?), the likelihood of Tesla 'just' being the biggest player gets smaller, and the likelihood of total Tesla domination gets bigger.
scubastevo80
Member
For you guys that are options experts, how do you recommend trading options on TSLA that have a minimum 2 month hold (employer personal trading requirement)? I sold June $225 puts at ~$37 on March 18th. I'm obviously happy with the trade as those options are now trading at $3.55, but I can't buy them back until May 18th.
I'm limited to basic options, so I'm not sure if selling puts to fund long dated calls is a good strategy to employ when price is low. I'd be happy to buy stock sub $350 and expert to remain a long-term holder. Any thoughts from you experts here since I can't really take advantage of short-term price dislocations?
I'm limited to basic options, so I'm not sure if selling puts to fund long dated calls is a good strategy to employ when price is low. I'd be happy to buy stock sub $350 and expert to remain a long-term holder. Any thoughts from you experts here since I can't really take advantage of short-term price dislocations?
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Some people work and get payed every 2 weeks. Was this a serious question?!?!?
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