Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Everyone, can we please move the Corona-based posts and tweet to the Corona-thread? If you'd like to reply, use "quote" and post it there, so the thread can be continued.

We have market opening in 20 minutes, and Q1 release after to argue about.

 

[traxila]

So Ford is only down 4% after a 293% EPS miss and horrible guidance for Q2. Does anyone here think TSLA would only be down this much with similar results?

Edit: now down only 1.4%

That was certainly baked in for Ford. What is baked in for Tesla? Magic question.

 

[Singuy]

I agree, and I’m personally taking the quarantine very seriously. A modern manufacturing plant can be run to minimize the chance of a virus spread.

Elon doesn’t suffer fools well, and he sometimes uses Twitter to vent when he should really take a breath, but this time I think there is more method to his madness. Governors, mayors and county pols are all polling very strongly for their strict lockdown approaches.

Change the public perception on lockdowns, and the politicians will be forced to think harder about how best to confront the virus, rather than opting to lockdown everything in blanket fashion.

Elon has a vast megaphone to influence public opinion, and he has decided now is the time to turn the volume to 11.

Do the polls again with no stimulus check, restore unemployment rules to original states, and restore same rules as before for landlords.

Places like NYC shouldn't open. But places with one of the lowest number of deaths while also having the highest population should be open to some degree. I commend CA for being the first to close so they really have it under control, but now they are extending closure to infinity.

 

[ZeApelido]

Wow, Elon should really STFU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
This can do nothing but cause grief. Along with (Elon Musk on Twitter).

For those of you who don't do Twitter, that's "FREE AMERICA NOW" (yes, all caps) and "Bravo Texas!" in reply to a tweet stating that Texas is opening various businesses on Friday. Has he learned nothing?

Lets not turn this into another Coronavirus thread, but I will say that Overlord Musk is entitled to his own opinion. He has a vastly different experience than any of us here on this thread. Further, he has GF Shanghai, so has direct experience in how to run a company in a Coronavirus situation.

You don't get to 33 million twitter followers without being edgy.

Why do some many people want to put Elon in a mold? Let him be, he doesn't have to be the perfect son-in-law.

You literally could replace Musk's name with Trump's in all of this and attempt to make the same rationalization for his behavior. Trump is an arsehat, and Elon is acting the same with all these tweets.

Now you could hide the account and have a tough time guessing if the tweet came from Trump or Musk....

Elon has been wrong about COVID for 6 weeks now. When deaths would come down, unrealistic timelines, etc...

Worse, he's been insinuating doctor's are doing unethical things, and retweeting insane McAfee tweets hinting NY is fixing death counts.

His tweets are bringing out the biggest MAGA supporters.

He is acting like an arsehat, and fanboi's need to pull their heads out of the sand and stop rationalizing poor behavior.

Just like the president.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Everyone, can we please move the Corona-based posts and tweet to the Corona-thread? If you'd like to reply, use "quote" and post it there, so the thread can be continued.

We have market opening in 20 minutes, and Q1 release after to argue about.

Meh...who cares about what the market is doing. Nothing special going on today, right? LOL!

Dan

 

[LN1_Casey]

That was certainly baked in for Ford. What is baked in for Tesla? Magic question.

I dunno, I think maybe the sharks are still circling Ford, and may start going in after.

 

[UCF3]

I think it’s a mixed bag, great news out of China helping cancel out the covid19 impacts at Fremont. I’m guessing Elon wants to confirm the 2020 guidance but is probably being held back by his CFO and the board. Of course this is pure speculation. I still believe Tesla will confirm something like 475K-500K deliveries for 2020.

How can Elon reaffirm any guidance when we doesn’t know when the county will open for business?

This type of anecdotal evidence is unscientific and potentially dangerous.

But anything from a Reddit post is reliable

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You literally could replace Musk's name with Trump's in all of this and attempt to make the same rationalization for his behavior. Trump is an arsehat, and Elon is acting the same with all these tweets.

Now you could hide the account and have a tough time guessing if the tweet came from Trump or Musk....

Elon has been wrong about COVID for 6 weeks now. When deaths would come down, unrealistic timelines, etc...

Worse, he's been insinuating doctor's are doing unethical things, and retweeting insane McAfee tweets hinting NY is fixing death counts.

His tweets are bringing out the biggest MAGA supporters.

He is acting like an arsehat, and fanboi's need to pull their heads out of the sand and stop rationalizing poor behavior.

Just like the president.

Uhhh...ok,sure.

Dan

 

[ZeApelido]

To everyone outraged by Elon’s tweets, I can 100% confirm that he’s correct. I live in the hardest hit Canadian province and in the hardest hit city by Covid-19. The manufacturing company where I work has been deemed essential, so we continue to operate. And guess what? While a few people have been infected, NO ONE has died and all have recovered after a few days at home. The complete lockdown of everyone makes no sense as we know this virus has a much more severe impact on “older” people and those with pre-existing breathing issues (ex: smokers). So while I didn’t like the funding secured tweets, I don’t think he’s wrong this time. Common sense must be used, not knee jerk reactions caused by fear.

Hey as long as its older people that die (they aren't working at your factory, whew!), it's okay right?

 

[Krugerrand]

Happy earnings day everyone!

Strangely enough, that seems like the correct order.

 

[TNEVol]

Not legally.

Judge Sentenced To 28 Years In Bribery Scandal





Yes, American doctors can receive kickbacks and trips/vacations to conventions.

Physician Payments Sunshine Act requires that the amounts be made public in a searchable database.

Never heard of hospitals giving kickbacks to doctors though.

Hospitals have always had a problem with kickbacks and referrals with doctors, hence the Stark law and Anti-kickback statute. However there is likely no unusual financial incentive for either docs or hospitals in the intubation situation. Frankly many patients are poor and uninsured. The health care system will.likely be reimbursed at Medicare rates either from state and federal funds or unfortunately bad debt. There is no obvious advantage to be greedy in the current situation.

 

[ckessel]

9 years in and I have never been so disappointed in Elon as a person. I've been disappointed by over optimistic timelines or over obsessed engineering on the X, but as a person he's seemed decent. But today, man, frothing mad man ranting appealing to the worst aspects of society.

I'm questioning if I want to continue to support Tesla if this is the true heart of the person that leads it.

 

[mickificki]

To everyone outraged by Elon’s tweets, I can 100% confirm that he’s correct. I live in the hardest hit Canadian province and in the hardest hit city by Covid-19. The manufacturing company where I work has been deemed essential, so we continue to operate. And guess what? While a few people have been infected, NO ONE has died and all have recovered after a few days at home. The complete lockdown of everyone makes no sense as we know this virus has a much more severe impact on “older” people and those with pre-existing breathing issues (ex: smokers). So while I didn’t like the funding secured tweets, I don’t think he’s wrong this time. Common sense must be used, not knee jerk reactions caused by fear.

Elon hit the nail in the head when he said: "Silicon Valley has become Sanctimonious Valley".

There's a bunch of power hungry politicians/health advisors who think they know what's best for us. "Stay home you stupid monkey, I know better than you!"

Unfortunately, that hits a little too close to home.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon Musk on Twitter

I think Overlord Musk is getting upset with California's response.

 

[BornToFly]

The SP has been on a rampage the last month. The forecast for Q2 can't be good if the factory can't open next week. I would be less surprised by 600 than 800 next week. However, I'm often wrong (I called 30 million unemployed correctly, but completely missed on how the market would react). I sold covered calls for Friday for SP 1000 with half my shares as collateral. This means I'll be wrong again and we will be at 1001 at close this Friday. You are welcome!

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow, Elon should really STFU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
This can do nothing but cause grief. Along with (Elon Musk on Twitter).

For those of you who don't do Twitter, that's "FREE AMERICA NOW" (yes, all caps) and "Bravo Texas!" in reply to a tweet stating that Texas is opening various businesses on Friday. Has he learned nothing?

Do explain what’s wrong with him tweeting that?

 

[JusRelax]

The SP has been on a rampage the last month. The forecast for Q2 can't be good if the factory can't open next week. I would be less surprised by 600 than 800 next week. However, I'm often wrong (I called 30 million unemployed correctly, but completely missed on how the market would react). I sold covered calls for Friday for SP 1000 with half my shares as collateral. This means I'll be wrong again and we will be at 1001 at close this Friday. You are welcome!

If we close at 1001 this Friday and if this is in a nontaxable account, I'd say you are a lot more right than you think!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

That was certainly baked in for Ford. What is baked in for Tesla? Magic question.

I can understand it being baked in to a certain extent, but I don’t think anyone thought it was going to be as bad as it was. And now Ford stock is actually up!?!?!?

Based on this, maybe Tesla should really sandbag guidance knowing that the market seems to be very accepting of soft earnings right now. That would set them up for a huge beat going forward.

 

[Todd Burch]

9 years in and I have never been so disappointed in Elon as a person. I've been disappointed by over optimistic timelines or over obsessed engineering on the X, but as a person he's seemed decent. But today, man, frothing mad man ranting appealing to the worst aspects of society.

I'm questioning if I want to continue to support Tesla if this is the true heart of the person that leads it.

Need a little perspective here.

Wanting to get back to work doesn't make someone a bad person. He's looking out for his business, his tens of thousands of workers (and the supply chain), and for all of humanity--he wants to get back to making clean cars.

It is possible to put people back to work safely. Maintain social distancing, wear masks, etc. It's not like Elon just wants to throw everyone back in Fremont and order them to lick each other's faces as quickly as possible so he can spread the virus as quickly as possible. Pretty sure he's smart enough to implement procedures at Tesla that can minimize risk.

Will it eliminate the possibility that someone will get infected, or die? No. But there's also a risk that someone will die on their way into the office, or from a forklift accident, etc. It's all about taking the precautions to minimize community spread. If you can take actions to make the risk of spread minimal (and you can), then it's a reasonable thing to request.

Elon doesn't deny the science or ignore the pandemic. He just wants to get working again. Very confident he and Tesla can take the right actions to do so in a safe manner.

 

[ckessel]

Wanting to get back to work doesn't make someone a bad person.

No, it doesn't.

Ranting on the internet, stirring up the same people that are brandishing assault weapons on capitol steps, that does make them a bad person.