Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Ford painted their future black when they bought that ad instead of making better products.

After over 100 years of ICE development, there is not much "better" to be had--maybe more cup holders.

 

[jerry33]

Does anyone think the bears will be able to make a continual down push of the SP post release? Or do you think that the SP will shake them off and be responsive to the facts about Tesla post-Corona (whenever that'll be), and stay upwards of 500/600/700?

The MMs thrive on volatility and decide what their price is (on any given day) and use their real and virtual shares to ensure they get it--most of the time. So TSLA will continue to have wild swings up and down (the down being aided by the bears) regardless of the actual state of the company. In the long run, the buy and hold shareholders will win because there is lots of appetite for low priced shares.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Elon is humnan, and he has opinions, and he is probably a bit on th austism spectrum (I think I am too). My own, bitter, hard-won and difficult-to-learn-from experience on this situation is this:

TWITTER IS HELL.​

Its a playground for the time-rich, angry, bitter trolls who love tricking people into saying the wrong thing. Its a cesspit of conspiracy theories, extremism, racism, mysoginy, xenophobia and just dumb-as-hell bullshit.
Anyone with any sense should stay the hell away from twitter.

...but elon has a bazillion twitter followers, and seems to genuinely enjoy it. People think he is always 'representing' tesla or speaking as CEO when he tweets. he is quite clearly not. Most of his tweets are silly jokes or memes, or monty python sketch clips, interspersed with the odd picture of a starship or a car.

What I like about Elon is you know what he thinks, because he has no edit button, and often seems to tweet when drunk/high. He may come across as a dick on those occasions, but so do we all. This is infinitely preferable to companies like GM,Ford or Amazon who only ever tweet carefully massaged corporate bullshit. Who knows what crazy nonsense the CEOs of legacy autos really think? and who would buy their products if they did?

 

[FrankSG]

Nobody says he needs to be perfect, Fred. Some just want him to be less dumb!

I think this Reddit post explains the problem pretty well:
Elon Musk, a consistent COVID-19 skeptic, tweets FREE AMERICA NOW : teslamotors

Aren't judges in the US sometimes financially incentivized to lock people up? Or was that just in the show Billions?

And aren't doctors sometimes financially incentivized to prescribe certain drugs in the US? Through pharmaceutical companies?

Correct me if I'm wrong on these two, but if they're true, it wouldn't seem that far fetched if there have been some instances where doctors were financially incentivized to intubate people.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...

Question is: when will this be reached and what # of shares will be outstanding at that time. If shares outstanding doesn't increase, we will be at:

$3,524.95 / share

My hope/wish is for this to happen within 5 years.

Depends on whether Alameda county is open by then.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Nobody says he needs to be perfect, Fred. Some just want him to be less dumb!

I think this Reddit post explains the problem pretty well:
Elon Musk, a consistent COVID-19 skeptic, tweets FREE AMERICA NOW : teslamotors

Just for clarification...

Elon has NEVER been skeptical of COVID-19...never. To say so is disingenuous at best and slanderous at worst. He has questioned the reaction to it, that is all.

Dan

 

[vikings123]

The MMs thrive on volatility and decide what their price is (on any given day) and use their real and virtual shares to ensure they get it--most of the time. So TSLA will continue to have wild swings up and down (the down being aided by the bears) regardless of the actual state of the company. In the long run, the buy and hold shareholders will win because there is lots of appetite for low priced shares.

Agreed. I will just add that the supply side is definitely getting thinner so any time the price goes below a certain point those shares are getting bought either by long term investors or institutions.

If you are playing the short term game, be prepared to play a game of chess with the MMs. It is not worth the stress in my opinion. Just play smart with long term hodl strategy and maximize your investments by buying the dip.

I got an alert from IB saying investors are expecting a 14% implied movement in the stock post ER. I’m not so sure we will see anything so drastic this week.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Tweeted:
Bravo Texas!

Sounds like a great place to build (or move) a factory.

If I were Elon, I wouldn’t get mad, I'd get even. Build GigaTexas for Cybertruck, but leave enough expansion room to replicate and replace Fremont.

 

[RobStark]

Aren't judges in the US sometimes financially incentivized to lock people up? Or was that just in the show Billions?

Not legally.

Judge Sentenced To 28 Years In Bribery Scandal

And aren't doctors sometimes financially incentivized to prescribe certain drugs in the US? Through pharmaceutical companies?

Correct me if I'm wrong on these two, but if they're true, it wouldn't seem that far fetched if there have been some instances where doctors were financially incentivized to intubate people.

Yes, American doctors can receive kickbacks and trips/vacations to conventions.

Physician Payments Sunshine Act requires that the amounts be made public in a searchable database.

Never heard of hospitals giving kickbacks to doctors though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, say that the ER isn't positive, and is about the same as estimates from the analysis people. Besides the initial short drop, which will probably happen even with positive results, what does everyone think about the long term result on the SP?

Specifically, last year's Q1 was a disappointment, and the SP went down for the next few months, including after Q2, until it recovered in Q4. However, this time there is a world-wide pandemic and the market understands that the Q1 and Q2 (maybe Q3) will be affected by this.

Does anyone think the bears will be able to make a continual down push of the SP post release? Or do you think that the SP will shake them off and be responsive to the facts about Tesla post-Corona (whenever that'll be), and stay upwards of 500/600/700?

I don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I'm not concerned either. Here's the big picture in the auto industry as I see it:

• The Competition is NOT coming:
  • Both Ford and VW are having major delays with their nascent EV programs
  • EVs aren't as easy as ICE, as Mercedes found out with their EQC "conversion".
  • The awful efficiency of much-hyped offerings like Audi's E-tron and Porsche's Taycan only showcases Tesla's vast lead in technology (World-beaters, and getting better daily)
    
  • Auto giant Toyota doesn't have a competitive EV (have they finally given up on 'fool cells'?) while some Japanese marques don't even HAVE an EV program (good grief)
    
  • With Tesla's launch of the MiC Model 3, they have INSTANTLY become the premier domestic EV brand, and are on a path to dominate the Chinese AUTO market, the largest in the World

• Established Automakers are on the Ropes: We've long known on this Forum that a mere 10% drop in sales wipes out the profitability of large marques who already operate on razor-thin margins. With the Covid-19 crisis driving down their sales:
  • many face bankrupcy and may seek Gov't support
  • most (or all) are cancelling dividends, a sacred cow for investors
  • many face credit downgrades making the cost of capital burdensome

• Tesla is in great shape to weather a downturn:
  • There is a untapped pool of customers ripe for Tesla's numerous demand levers
  • The Model Y SUV is becoming available in N.America just in time to capture market share in a larger market and with a product with higher gross margins than Model 3
    
  • Tesla has a strong balance sheet, and is likely STILL cash-flow positive even in a downturn
  • New factories and new products strengthen demand each quarter while they gain access to new markets and new segments of those markets

• Tesla is NOT your father's 8-yr old sedan:
  • Semi is both a product and a technology stack that is poised to sweep away the competition in the trucking / logistics industry: Even in a recession, goods must flow and ACCOUNTANTS call the shots
  • Solar Roof is a game changer. Starting in California and working outward, anybody with means and a desire for the security that comes with independace from the Grid will sign up
  • Tesla Energy is poised to END the use of all NG Peaker plants with its new line of MegaPack utility class energy storage products

• Tesla has a strong and relentless Leadership Team:
  • Tesla attracts the best in Engineering talent, because of THE MISSION
  • Tesla has a no-quit, double-quick-time rock-star of a CEO that refuses to lose
  • Let me say that again: Tesla is so results focused that even its cars have VISION.

So come what may on Thursday, I'm looking toward 2025 and beyond and the view is splendid. BTW, Ron Baron isn't selling...

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Car sales in Europe down 55.1%

View attachment 537031

ACEA on Twitter

The only exception is Iceland where sales this year is up by 4 cars compared to 2019 (1074/1078). Go Karen!

So Karen alone caused 25% of Icelands growth? Don't let anyone tell you that what you as one person do doesn't matter.

 

[avoigt]

Car sales in Europe down 55.1%

View attachment 537031

ACEA on Twitter

The only exception is Iceland where sales this year is up by 4 cars compared to 2019 (1074/1078). Go Karen!

put into relation to see the true picture

 

[dqd88]

Wow, Elon should really STFU:
Elon Musk on Twitter
This can do nothing but cause grief. Along with (Elon Musk on Twitter).

For those of you who don't do Twitter, that's "FREE AMERICA NOW" (yes, all caps) and "Bravo Texas!" in reply to a tweet stating that Texas is opening various businesses on Friday. Has he learned nothing?

I'm shocked that so many people seem ok with an economic depression. The stupidity of humanity truly is frightening. You have not thought this through and your opinions are shaped by uber embellished fear.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Sadly, history repeats.

Scurvy is by definition a disease caused by vitamin C deficiency. So yeah, vitamin C cures it. Infections are not caused by vitamin deficiencies. So they are not cured by vitamins. This belief that vitamins are cure-alls for a wide range of conditions is dangerous thinking, and borders on belief and faith rather than science and reason. I'm all for looking into links and connections, but you are promoting something else entirely. Rant over.

 

[powertoold]

Another case of "we love Elon, but he's gone too far" lol, happens every few months

 

[Pezpunk]

Another case of "we love Elon, but he's gone too far" lol, happens every few months

this isn't going "too far". it's going dumb.

 

[Frank Einstein]

Don't let anyone tell you that what you as one person do doesn't matter.

Whoever said one man can't change the world never ate an undercooked bat.

I trust Elon when it comes to running Tesla - if I didn't, I'd sell my shares. I do think his messages on Twitter regarding C19 are concerning. But that doesn't mean I think he's stupid/incompetent. People can disagree about things. This isn't the first (or the last time, I suspect) that an Elon tweet has made me facepalm.

 

[tslagreen]

I'm shocked that so many people seem ok with an economic depression. The stupidity of humanity truly is frightening. You have not thought this through and your opinions are shaped by uber embellished fear.

I hear ya. It is easy to spout stay at home mantras while typing from a keyboard. I am lucky I can continue to work. Tell that, however, to the restaurant owner, or salon owner or local clothing retailer or guy/gal selling beers at the stadium. They continue to suffer.

 

[LJS22]

I can’t tell if Elon’s tweets are code for hes building a Gigafactory in Texas, and profit not secured or if he’s being literal and had no worries about earnings today and just went all in.

Yicai Global 第一财经 on Twitter

Looks like he talked about Shanghai production overnight also

 

[Mkorpal]

I invest in Tesla, not Elon. Guess I’ll leave it at that.