Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BenPrice]

Great day. Stock is up and my prostate biopsy came back negative. Way cool.

Only a few times in life it’s acceptable to dance around your house like an idiot.

Today is one. Enjoy it.


Congrats!!!!!!

 

[ZachF]

So.... is Tesla the only profitable automaker yet?

 

[mongo]

CNBC just said Tesla doesn’t make money on OTA updates lol

speed upgrade - $2,000
Premium connectivity- $9.99
Heated seats - $300
FSD - $7000

That isn't totally wrong though.
Updates (like AP improvements, latest games, Joe mode) are different than upgrades (which are also Over The Air).

 

[bubb]

With regard to the timing of Fremont reopening, and consequently possible S&P500 inclusion, I think it's important to consider two things:

• As far as I can tell, there currently is no coherent plan for exiting lockdown in California, or anywhere in the US (or most of the western world for that matter), without causing a sharp second wave, forcing us right back into lockdown. This, combined with the extreme political pressure of the situation may well lead to rushed and/or poorly thought out policies, i.e. extreme political volatility wrt COVID-19.
• In the current political climate, "maintaining lockdown" is seen as a democratic policy and "opening the country" as a republican one. This may well lead to California erring on the side of ending lockdown too late, purely for tribal signaling.

In short: Predicting the end of the Californian lockdown is basically impossible, but I expect it to happen late rather than early.

Beginnings of a coherent plan can be found here (released yesterday).

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think it's too soon to say with any certainty that Tesla can't pull a small profit this quarter for SP500 inclusion. Most of the US workers are currently furloughed and Tesla doesn't have to buy parts for cars that aren't built. These two things are normally the largest expenses. Then we have the Shangai factory cranking out Model 3's with great margins. And we know Tesla has a bunch of unsold inventory that could be shipped to Europe to unlock FCA millions. And of course, FSD revenues could be pretty large.

I think it might come down to whether Musk decides to hit Q2 profitability or not. Because there is a lot they can do to move the needle one way or the other.

Unfortunately, I think we are going to have to assume Fremont is closed for the whole quarter. The Bay Area has no plan (except for playing golf). It would have been easier to recover from an earthquake.

 

[avoigt]

You are in good company.

Warren Buffett's most famous quotes to make underline the importance of doing nothing: “Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style.”

I did not have a single thought in the last years to sell a single stock - only how to slowly add.... does that make me a sloth?

Well its actually in German called translated a lazy animal - so be it

 

[vikings123]

Damn is 900 possible AH?

I think we hit 900 after the earnings call, just my hunch. The key to the +ve surprise was they applied around 330 million in EV credits(FCA). It's clear they expect Q2 to be really bad.

BTW, the AH volume is insane, posting a screenshot in case @Artful Dodger says I was wrong lol.

 

[LJS22]

That isn't totally wrong though.
Updates (like AP improvements, latest games, Joe mode) are different than upgrades (which are also Over The Air).

The context was someone comparing Tesla to Apple and it being a tech stock. The host said “yea but Apple actually makes money...Tesla can’t make money on OTA updates”

nobody corrected her, the guy just said they will probably find ways to monetize it in the future

 

[lascavarian]

Darn, missed it.
Any feedback you can offer?

He closed saying better than 50% chance of S&P inclusion. Actually said 60%.

 

[X Fan]

CNBC just said Tesla doesn’t make money on OTA updates lol

speed upgrade - $2,000
Premium connectivity- $9.99
Heated seats - $300
FSD - $7000

She recently came back and presumably not up to speed with Munster/ARKK updates.

 

[EVNow]

Margin figure suggests Shanghai margin is around 30%! Based on that, Q2 S&P inclusion chances are improved but still low likelihood.

Q3 inclusion looks nailed on.

Auto margin (non-lease) works out to 18.5% vs 19.9% in Q4. This doesn't include regulatory credits.

$354M in regulatory credit vs $133M in Q4. FCA is paying handsomely. Should we expect to have this kind of credit every quarter … or is that based on # of deliveries in Europe ? This is going to add a lot of uncertainty going forward - atleast in Q2.

 

[johnm6875]

Here I sit with A LOT of shares from back in 2012. But I still wish I had even more. Ahhh...never satisfied.

It's not the money, it's the winning . . . OK, the money's part of the rush.

 

[H Mak]

Great day. Stock is up and my prostate biopsy came back negative. Way cool.

Great news mate! I had the same a couple of years back

 

[Nocturnal]

With regard to the timing of Fremont reopening, and consequently possible S&P500 inclusion, I think it's important to consider two things:

• As far as I can tell, there currently is no coherent plan for exiting lockdown in California, or anywhere in the US (or most of the western world for that matter), without causing a sharp second wave, forcing us right back into lockdown. This, combined with the extreme political pressure of the situation may well lead to rushed and/or poorly thought out policies, i.e. extreme political volatility wrt COVID-19.
• In the current political climate, "maintaining lockdown" is seen as a democratic policy and "opening the country" as a republican one. This may well lead to California erring on the side of ending lockdown too late, purely for tribal signaling.

In short: Predicting the end of the Californian lockdown is basically impossible, but I expect it to happen late rather than early.

I think a 2nd wave is likely, but I know America. Americans won't tolerate a second lockdown especially as a second stimulus is unlikely. It will just a random mess of hot spots, some people self quarantining further, and pain and death.

 

[hacer]

I bought some of Tesla's 2024 convertible bonds at a discount some time ago.View attachment 537118

It seems that Tesla has opened up optional conversion of these bonds now. I just got email from ETrade:

a) I think it's an interesting move on their part at this instant in time. I'm trying to understand their motivation. Basically it converts borrowing into equity if someone converts. This is not dilution, in the sense that it doesn't water down the value per share of the company, since the assets go up in lockstep. It could be preliminary to another capital raise though? Clean up the balance sheet to make it look better?

b) What does it mean for me personally? If I convert now, I get 32.276 shares at a cost basis of $309.83, funnily enough that's $10,000.08. But I forgo the 2% annual coupon which is $800 over the next 4 years (I presume I get this year's $200).

c) This is actual news... why can't I find it reported anywhere, or commented about, in the media?

I think I'm going to convert, on the theory that it must be good for Tesla or they wouldn't have made the offer, and hence it will increase the value of my other Tesla investments.

I wonder if this is because if you convert now then can use the call hedge they bought to prevent dilution and that they're pretty sure by 2024 the stock price will be way above the warrants they sold. So now is an opportunity to clear debt at minimal cost with no dilution?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Clean and Green!

Literally, the two reports came in 10 minutes apart. Life is good. Wife and I are walking on air.

Slightly off topic, my urologist has a model y on order. .

 

[Nocturnal]

Literally, the two reports came in 10 minutes apart. Life is good.

Slightly off topic, my urologist has a model y on order. .

So your wiener is helping the mission to reduce climate change and fossil fuel dependence.

 

[Reductionist]

Beginnings of a coherent plan can be found here (released yesterday).

Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but it seems to me as though they don't plan to stop community spread before relaxing lockdown measures. Wouldn't relaxing social distancing rules while there still is community spread inevitably lead to a resurgence of cases, sending us right back into lockdown? This doesn't seem like a sustainable approach to me. See this thread for what I think at least has a chance of working (In essence: Stop community transmission through sharp, short lockdown, establish red and green zones across the country, green zones can go back to work, drastically limit travel between red and green zones).

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Literally, the two reports came in 10 minutes apart. Life is good. Wife and I are walking on air.

Slightly off topic, my urologist has a model y on order. .

He will have to downgrade to a model 3 now that he won't see you for a while.

 

[StealthP3D]

Couple of genius traders right there.

Haha! You just used the words "genius" and "trader" in the same sentence!