Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

For me, it’s the one dog bite rule. Elon’s Twitter malfeasance during the M3 ramp was the first bite, potentially excusable because of severe pressure. But this is the second bite.

Which means now it’s very likely there are going to be more bites coming, and one of them could be much worse than what we’ve seen so far.

Does that make TSLA uninvestable? Not for me. I still see way more upside despite this risk.

But I’m deleveraging quite a bit now, and even for you folks who just own common you need to consider having a smaller percentage of your investable net worth in TSLA now.

Why? Because Elon is not just the CEO, he is the embodiment of TSLA. And we now know that he has the propensity to damage the SP by his behavior, and the next damage could be deep and permanent.

well said. I have the utmost respect for some of the posters here and I'm in no way insinuating that they have been financially harmed by Elon's tweets. I'm just taking a broader and more empathetic view here, looking at all stockholders, super bulls and what not. You know, everybody deserve a chance to make money. For the average Joe who buys Tesla. they might not know Elon Musk like we do. Maybe they did their homework and accepted the business risks. Maybe they looked at the volatility and said hey I could weather that. But, they don't expect the CEO to tank their investment by 10% with some tweets. Before the tweets, TSLA was actually outperforming the indexes (down 1% vs ~1.7% for NASDAQ) so please don't give me the multiple crap. Maybe some employees at Tesla need to sell some stock soon now that they're out of work. What I'm saying is across the spectrum, there are people actually harmed by his behavior today. For some of us, it's a matter of principle. Like Dave said in his video, it was unnecessary. Is Dave not a sensible guy? Is it too much to ask for some accountability?
True, TSLA longs will prosper beyond their wildest dream but is it acceptable to call us who temporarily (hopefully) went on strike weak longs? If we can't act on our principle, then what good is money? Isn't that how Elon function?

 

[Artful Dodger]

another battle with the SEC... Anyone have any insight into this?

Yeah. The SEC seems only triggered by shortzes who complain when the SP jumps up. Shortzes are fine with Friday's events.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For me, it’s the one dog bite rule. Elon’s Twitter malfeasance during the M3 ramp was the first bite, potentially excusable because of severe pressure. But this is the second bite.

Which means now it’s very likely there are going to be more bites coming, and one of them could be much worse than what we’ve seen so far.

Does that make TSLA uninvestable? Not for me. I still see way more upside despite this risk.

But I’m deleveraging quite a bit now, and even for you folks who just own common you need to consider having a smaller percentage of your investable net worth in TSLA now.

Why? Because Elon is not just the CEO, he is the embodiment of TSLA. And we now know that he has the propensity to damage the SP by his behavior, and the next damage could be deep and permanent.

Those are some fine words. Here's another approach that has proven successful over time:

Fidelity Reviewed Which Investors Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious

While we're being honest, have you calculated where your account would be right now if you just bought TSLA then did nothing since? Are you ahead now with all the trading plays and strategies, or behind?

 

[anthonyj]

Elon is the only CEO I have ever heard that buys his own secondary stock offerings,
And repeatedly so at every offering. The antithesis of pump and dump.

At the most recent secondary, he purchased stock (about $10 millions worth) at $750 something, but now
the stock price is high, contradicts that. Something does not square, so either his state of mind is off,
Or the subtext is lost in translation, or a combination, or given the present shutdown the price is high.

I will pretend it means nothing, and assume the SEC will ignore it too. I will
Use this controversy to my advantage and buy some stock.

It’s super simple. Fremont is closed and there is NO clarity on when it will open back up. Why should a company be worth $150b if it can’t manufacture cars? This can potentially go on for months and is destroying Tesla’s supply chain

He wants people to notice. This is his way of getting people to wake the f up

 

[jbcarioca]

Syntax error

Fixed.

 

[Krugerrand]

Honestly the only one thing that has me slightly concerned is another battle with the SEC... Anyone have any insight into this? Would this be material info?

The reason you’re concerned is because you’re afraid and you’re afraid because you lack knowledge — fear of the unknown.

That is an easy fix. Go get knowledgeable. I can give you the information (which btw has been posted here a few times already) but it would be a more powerful drowning of your concern if you found out for yourself by digging up the legal documentation available in this thread or on twitter or in any number of other Internet cubbyholes.

The answer is: fear not, he didn’t violate any SEC regulation with ‘that’ tweet but don’t take my word for it. You’re responsible for the outcome regardless of what I say to you.

 

[SO16]

Elon is the only CEO I have ever heard that buys his own secondary stock offerings,
And repeatedly so at every offering. The antithesis of pump and dump.

At the most recent secondary, he purchased stock (about $10 millions worth) at $750 something, but now
the stock price is high, contradicts that. Something does not square, so either his state of mind is off,
Or the subtext is lost in translation, or a combination, or given the present shutdown the price is high.

I will pretend it means nothing, and assume the SEC will ignore it too. I will
Use this controversy to my advantage and buy some stock.

During that cap raise, was Fremont shutdown? Did he think it would still be shut down? Was he concerned about suppliers going bankrupt? Probably not. Hence the change in his stock price attitude. Besides, he has literally said the stock price is too high several times over the years. CEOs don’t set the stock price.

 

[JRP3]

Rage comes from fear. Ranting is one way to release at least temporarily the rage giving the individual a chance to see the fear below the rage. Until you can see and acknowledge the fear, you can’t deal with it.

You’ve got some money and lack of control fears of your own, which is why you sold shares. You’ve got lots of company. Very common fears.

And interestingly enough, you used the same type of technique as Elon to release. Now you’re in ‘good’ company.

The differences:
I'm not in charge of a multi-billion dollar company.
My actions do not have any real impact on others.
I'm not communicating to millions of followers.
I'm not repeating anti-science conspiracy theories.

Over the last few days Elon has shown himself to be less rational than I thought, and after all these years I thought I had a reasonable measure of the man. I was wrong so I needed to make adjustments. I had too much exposure to a person who has diminished themselves in my eyes. To ignore that would be foolish. I still probably have more of my net worth in TSLA than most people but I need to keep evaluating that more thoroughly.

 

[dl003]

During that cap raise, was Fremont shutdown? Did he think it would still be shut down? Was he concerned about suppliers going bankrupt? Probably not. Hence the change in his stock price attitude. Besides, he has literally said the stock price is too high several times over the years. CEOs don’t set the stock price.

It's just not the stock price tweet. It's the whole shebang. It's everything from saying he'll sell his stuff to the freedom tweets. It left people no clarity to mull over what the stock price tweet could have meant.

 

[JRP3]

He wants people to notice. This is his way of getting people to wake the f up

Or it was a childish response to people saying all he cared about was money and the stock price which triggered his "I'll show you, I'll sell everything, stock price is too high" ranting.

 

[Sancho]

Those are some fine words. Here's another approach that has proven successful over time:

Fidelity Reviewed Which Investors Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious

While we're being honest, have you calculated where your account would be right now if you just bought TSLA then did nothing since? Are you ahead now with all the trading plays and strategies, or behind?

Way ahead.

But regardless, I take your point that there is a danger that in looking at every new piece of data, that an investor will overreact.

On the other hand, buying an individual stock and then forgetting about it, strikes me as beyond foolish. The world changes. Exactly how often an individual investment needs to be reconsidered is debatable, but “regularly” seems correct to me.

 

[Drax7]

It’s super simple. Fremont is closed and there is NO clarity on when it will open back up. Why should a company be worth $150b if it can’t manufacture cars? This can potentially go on for months and is destroying Tesla’s supply chain

He wants people to notice. This is his way of getting people to wake the f up

The only problem is He could have qualified the statement instead of leaving us guessing what he meant.
If his intent was to have the highest impact by hurting investors, then he succeeded.

 

[SO16]

It's just not the stock price tweet. It's the whole shebang. It's everything from saying he'll sell his stuff to the freedom tweets. It left people no clarity to mull over what the stock price tweet could have meant.

As others have said, Elon has tweeted a ton of “crazy” stuff over the years. Most of it ends up being quite logical once people understand the context. Not all of it accurate. The media loves this kind of crap because it gives them some purpose I guess. I look at it as this has absolutely NOTHING to do with Tesla and their long term mission.

Now if he tweeted something like “I was wrong about Tesla and I’m shutting it down.”, then I’d be worried. The rest of this stuff is probably due to disgust with the local government keeping them shutdown. If it bothers people that bad, they should just turn off the news and their computers. Just go outside and don’t look at the stock for a while.

 

[Beltsbear]

For me, it’s the one dog bite rule. Elon’s Twitter malfeasance during the M3 ramp was the first bite, potentially excusable because of severe pressure. But this is the second bite.

Which means now it’s very likely there are going to be more bites coming, and one of them could be much worse than what we’ve seen so far.

Does that make TSLA uninvestable? Not for me. I still see way more upside despite this risk.

But I’m deleveraging quite a bit now, and even for you folks who just own common you need to consider having a smaller percentage of your investable net worth in TSLA now.

Why? Because Elon is not just the CEO, he is the embodiment of TSLA. And we now know that he has the propensity to damage the SP by his behavior, and the next damage could be deep and permanent.

We also have funding assured and pedo guy at a minimum. I still have my shares. But this dog is definitely a biter.

 

[Remus]

Hmmmm... this turned around quickly.... I almost got a hint how it feels to be a $TSLAQ shortseller

FFS people, grow a pair!!

all those: "Elon hurt my feelings because of his tweets; he shoudn't say that! " postings! Get out of $TSLA and buy shares of Tupperware instead

Embrace the volatility!! As a long TSLA-bull, we were born and raised during major swings, FUD & Elon tweets

What has changed in the past 24 hours about Tesla? NOTHING!

We know Q2 is going to suck; you want to make more money during a risky time? This is it! Use this time to get more rich!!
So sit still / buy more shares!. But don't panic sell.

I couldn't care less about his comments on stock price, or he selling his house.

He was wrong about covid 19 and instead of looking at facts and course correct he attacks the facts. That's Koch brothers' way of dealing with climate change!

If he wasn't so bone headed about this virus being just a flu he would have better prepared and less frustrated about the whole situation. Now he's lashing out. Counter productive.

First principle thinking is the jist of scientific method, where you abandon your opinion and look at facts. He leads space X and Tesla with that attitude.

Now he's clinging to his opinions and cherry picking facts. Very dangerous signals.

I wish he admit his mistakes like in the past he admitted human are under rated, where the team persuaded him not to start from the scratch with the model Y. I wish the team in Tesla can persuade him once again.

Now Elon is not on the same side with science. He needs to change side.

 

[Tslynk67]

I like the idea but if I remember correctly EM said that he doesn't want to do a split any time soon.

Does someone remember when he said that?

No, but they weren’t going to do a capital raise either...

 

[dl003]

As others have said, Elon has tweeted a ton of “crazy” stuff over the years. Most of it ends up being quite logical once people understand the context. Not all of it accurate. The media loves this kind of crap because it gives them some purpose I guess. I look at it as this has absolutely NOTHING to do with Tesla and their long term mission.

Now if he tweeted something like “I was wrong about Tesla and I’m shutting it down.”, then I’d be worried. The rest of this stuff is probably due to disgust with the local government keeping them shutdown. If it bothers people that bad, they should just turn off the news and their computers. Just go outside and don’t look at the stock for a while.

Elon is Tesla and Tesla is Elon. Just like how his playful demeanor gives people's assurance with regards to Tesla, his erratic behavior is cause for concerns. It is more reasonable to expect people to do what's reasonably expected of them instead of what a Tesla bull should have done. If he wanted, he could have said the stock price is too high if Fremont is closed through Q2. That'd be a responsible way of communicating.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Didn't Elon say in the first Third Row podcast that he didn't even own a house?

Either way for someone with 30 billions or so any funds from selling a 5 million house would be like me selling something for 10 dollars. It would make absolutely no difference on the overall situation.

Can't believe there's been talk about how long it would take to sell his house to get some money. It's clearly a threat to California politicians.

 

[CaptainKirk]

It’s super simple. Fremont is closed and there is NO clarity on when it will open back up. Why should a company be worth $150b if it can’t manufacture cars? This can potentially go on for months and is destroying Tesla’s supply chain

He wants people to notice. This is his way of getting people to wake the f up

It's exactly this. Things are never black and white. I work in primary health care and although I'm in am ambulatory clinic, I had to get tested recently due to 2 peers being COVID-positive. Trace contacts made, and it's confirmed not to have spread, and I'm still seeing patients. Grocery store workers are exposed to all sorts of people as well throughout the day, so what makes some industries subject to full closure and some not?

Meanwhile, in Brampton, Ontario, and in a meat-packing plant in Alberta, there are plant closures due to confirmed clusters of infections. Society needs to understand what to watch for, when to report it, and MINIMIZE transmission. No sense waiting for a vaccine, and there's no evidence a vaccine will work entirely, as we have to grapple with the knowledge that the virus may mutate. Guidelines from government for business on how to monitor outbreaks, and require PPE, even with distance in the workplace once masks are more widely available. Let manufacturing industries with limited public contact open at a lower capacity and with a fixed staff. Monitor, and slowly open up in a measured approach. I think the public would respect this. If a cluster of outbreaks forms again, shut things in that area immediately and trace contacts. Unfortunately, this needs a cooperative public, yet there's already a risk of losing public confidence as there's a fatigue to COVID-19 isolation warnings. Outlawing or fining for certain behaviours only go so far, but if there's a plan, there's a hope, everyone can look forward. Look to see what other countries are implementing, and learn from that to apply what works and what doesn't.

 

[H Mak]

Having slept on this and read all the press coverage I've come to the profound conclusion that, it's yesterday's news.
In the words of Liam Gallagher, as you were