Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

'knows better'? Really. Dude, this is not some dispute between neighbors over the number of dandilions on their lawns.

This is HIS state, with one of HIS counties shutting down one of HIS largest employers and tax payers.

What do you think the job of a State Governer is, if not to step in during situations like this.

To abrogate his responsibility now is to tacitly affirm the actions of Alameda county. This will not end well for Newsom, or for California if they drive away one of their largest and fastest growning Tech companies.

The shortsightness displayed by his lack of engagement is stunning.

totally agree with you except Newsom is as slick as they get...he makes slick Willie Bill Clinton look like mud when it comes to the slimey-ness of being a politician. Why risk being accused of murder by the covid maniacs when you can blame the local officials if things go sideways? That way you can say “hey my mandate said it’s ok to open up but it’s up to the local government”, and if covid spikes you have an out clause. If covid doesn’t spike you say “well I told you you’re allowed to open up”. Pure political genius.

also as mentioned before he’s backed by the Getty family, who made their $$ via oil.

 

[LJS22]

Whole numbers/round numbers are considered as psychological resistance/support levels. Shorts know this and are probably hoping for some defiance from Alameda county. It boggles my mind they continue to place these short term bets against Tesla. You would think there's at least some better short candidates elsewhere.

We are likely range bound until we hear that Alameda county says they are satisfied with what they see from Tesla and that they are "officially" giving them the "green light". The statement is likely being drafted.

Exactly. It’s unlikely that a rogue county is going to tell the top manufacturer in the state what to do at this point. They basically got caught overplaying their hand and Musk is going to make them eat sh*t for it

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, but when the original poster stated it was stable, it had been. It opened at around ~$815, and floated there for the morning. Then, it very sharply dropped with no new news, so very likely MM's trying to manipulate it down, as @ProfTournesol mentioned.

However, TSLA Q-sader made the post as if it was always $788, and was 'correcting' the original post, without making mention of the sudden drop. Every post of this member seems to only mention the negative things. Any downward trend is "OMG, look how low it is!" even if it's subsequently defeated.

If only his parents would keep him locked in the attic without Internet...

 

[Rarity]

'knows better'? Really. Dude, this is not some dispute between neighbors over the number of dandilions on their lawns.

This is HIS state, with one of HIS counties shutting down one of HIS largest employers and tax payers.

What do you think the job of a State Governer is, if not to step in during situations like this.

To abrogate his responsibility now is to tacitly affirm the actions of Alameda county. This will not end well for Newsom, or for California if they drive away one of their largest and fastest growning Tech companies.

The shortsightness displayed by his lack of engagement is stunning.

From Trump on down, many politicians have tread lightly. Newsom is trying to be careful. They probably sense that while at this time these lockdowns are popular, they will prove extremely unpopular over time. The public's sentiments can change quickly.

That's why an unelected Interim Public Health Officer is making the decision. Indeed, that's why such positions exist in the United States.

 

[Mike Smith]

I don't think the Chinese registration numbers are reflective of how sales are actually going. Procedures implemented to combat Coronavirus could distort the numbers in a number of ways and the "wave" doesn't really end just because they make some of the cars in China. Since Tesla announces quarterly numbers, they have incentives to use the first month in the quarter to ship cars to the farthest reaches of China (probably by train and truck). China is a big country. And, as Artful Dodger has pointed out, demand remains strong going forward so I consider any focus on this number to be FUD.

Investment decisions should not be based on unreliable data from short time periods unless perhaps you use the weakness of the data to bet in the opposite direction.

Two other reasons for the low China number:

1) Tesla announced the long range Model 3 on April 10, causing many buyers to cancel their standard range orders.
2) Many buyers would have delayed their purchase in anticipation that Tesla would lower the price of the standard range model to fall within qualification for the subsidy, which ended up being a smart move.

My point about shorts attacking hard at the open wasn't because I thought the China news was actually bad, but because we know that if there's any seemingly bad news at all shorts will try for the first 15 minutes or so to convince the market it's going to be a bad day, then give up if they aren't getting any traction from longs selling.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My point about shorts attacking hard at the open wasn't because I thought the China news was actually bad, but because we know that if there's any seemingly bad news at all shorts will try for the first 15 minutes or so to convince the market it's going to be a bad day, then give up if they aren't getting any traction from longs selling.

In other words....every day since 2015 or so?

 

[Sudre]

Shorts really hate us going over 800. I wonder what’s special about that number

I think THEY want to sell as many PUTs under 800 this morning because they need to raise Max Pain a lot this week so they are trying to hold it down as long as possible.

Max Pain by the charts I use is around 745! They will definitely move that up.

 

[StealthP3D]

I understand. You don’t like what he tweeted. Some other people on the planet also don’t like what he tweeted. Let me assure you, as long as you hold TSLA shares, you’ll become increasingly monetarily richer regardless of what Elon tweets. Let me also assure you, Tesla is and will be just fine.

Did I miss a Tweet?

Because you are arguing that Elon's tweets don't help Tesla. I would argue long-term TSLA shareholders will become increasingly monetarily richer, in part, because of Elon's tweets, not in spite of Elon's tweets.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shorts really hate us going over 800. I wonder what’s special about that number

Agreed. Today will likely be a fight for a close above 800. It's a TA thing, with ~805ish being a strong resistence level since the drop going back to February: (shortzes fightin' hard to keep SP in a rge)

In the chart above, notice how the Middle-BB peaked around Mar 3rd, then the SP slid down to roughly ride in parallel with the Lower-BB over the next 12 sessions? This is the kind of TA 'momentum' that shortzes try to exploit to move the SP (since the actual facts don't concern them a wit).

Today, the Middle-BB continues to rise, and we've slowed or halted the slump in the Upper-BB, so today's Closing SP will be critical to determine what the SP does between now an Bty Day.

If $805 is breached while other technical indicators are also going up, and there's a postive news on Bty Day, then the SP will free to run up to a new ATH. Of course, that's what shortie is fighting against today. They want a low entry SP to blunt any good news.

Cheers!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Munro on the Model Y body structure: "This is a pretty good body. Much much better than I saw on the 3" This should be positive for Model Y margins and possibly build quality and consistency

This also shows that Tesla has gone from “LOL they know nothing about manufacturing and the big automakers will eat them up” to “wow, they are world class automakers and the other automakers are in trouble”

 

[LJS22]

When did Jonas become our friend? His $2-4billion cash burn warning is a good thing. Lowers expectations for what would be excessive and makes anything less than this a victory.

 

[kbM3]

If the science cannot be questioned, that is not science. That's authoritarian. Einstein also made mistake on quantum physics, so no one is saint.

Science is validly questioned by those who understand it. Elon is no more entitled to question the Science of Epidemiology and the initial conclusions of the world’s leading Epidemiologists, than you are to question the Science of Quantum Dynamics.

Do you believe you are entitled to question the science of Quantum Dynamics?

 

[StealthP3D]

This also shows that Tesla has gone from “LOL they know nothing about manufacturing and the big automakers will eat them up” to “wow, they are world class automakers and the other automakers are in trouble”

Meanwhile, Bob Lutz is lobbying hard for his name to be changed to "Bob Putz".

I wonder what percentage of his net worth is still in automotive stocks (non-Tesla of course). Oh well, this is a great way to transfer wealth from one generation to the next anyway! You don't need any money in Heaven, LOL!.

 

[Artful Dodger]

totally agree with you except Newsom is as slick as they get...he makes slick Willie Bill Clinton look like mud when it comes to the slimey-ness of being a politician. Why risk being accused of murder by the covid maniacs when you can blame the local officials if things go sideways? That way you can say “hey my mandate said it’s ok to open up but it’s up to the local government”, and if covid spikes you have an out clause. If covid doesn’t spike you say “well I told you you’re allowed to open up”. Pure political genius.

also as mentioned before he’s backed by the Getty family, who made their $$ via oil.

I hear you, but there's backlash already, saying the lockdown was not worth a $54B deficit:

Letters to the Editor: Remember when Gavin Newsom said 25 million Californians would catch COVID-19? | LA Times

IMO, leaders should lead. He's turtle-ing instead. Tesla is headed out of his state, and he's betting he can get out personally before that happens.

Reprehensible conduct, IMHO.

P.S. TSLA spiked to $811.50 minutes ago... Can we see some GREEN?

 

[LJS22]

Agreed. Today will likely be a fight for a close above 800. It's a TA thing, with ~805ish being a strong resistence level since the drop going back to February: (shortzes fightin' hard to keep SP in a rge)

View attachment 540624

In the chart above, notice how the Middle-BB peaked around Mar 3rd, then the SP slid down to roughly ride in parallel with the Lower-BB over the next 12 sessions? This is the kind of TA 'momentum' that shortzes try to exploit to move the SP (since the actual facts don't concern them a wit).

Today, the Middle-BB continues to rise, and we've slowed or halted the slump in the Upper-BB, so today's Closing SP will be critical to determine what the SP does between now an Bty Day.

If $805 is breached while other technical indicators are also going up, and there's a postive news on Bty Day, then the SP will free to run up to a new ATH. Of course, that's what shortie is fighting against today. They want a low entry SP to blunt any good news.

Cheers!

That battle is going our way currently, any news breaking on Alameda getting out of the way will be huge.

 

[StealthP3D]

Science is validly questioned by those who understand it. Elon is no more entitled to question the Science of Epidemiology and the initial conclusions of the world’s leading Epidemiologists, than you are to question the Science of Quantum Dynamics.

Do you believe you are entitled to question the science of Quantum Dynamics?

Elon and I see eye to eye on the belief that "experts" should ALWAYS be questioned. Because all too often their thinking has unseen flaws. Don't hesitate to at least question someone just because they are the supposed "expert". Experts regularly fail to provide good guidance.

 

[feigen66]

Science is validly questioned by those who understand it. Elon is no more entitled to question the Science of Epidemiology and the initial conclusions of the world’s leading Epidemiologists, than you are to question the Science of Quantum Dynamics.

Do you believe you are entitled to question the science of Quantum Dynamics?

One of my jobs is writing statical model on super computer, including the quantum one. So yes, I do.

And really, my personal believe is that science should be free for all, not exclusive to people who could pay tuition. Everyone can learn science from books themselves.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think secretly Alameda County officials are fine with Tesla breaking their order. It's not like they want people to be unemployed, and now if things get bad with Covid-19 they can blame Tesla. Especially now that Tesla is threatening to leave, it's very easy for them to throw up their hands and say we tried our best, but we can't stop them. I don't expect there to be any fight at all - this was a brilliant move from Elon who is earning every penny of his pay package. If anything they'll make a few minor changed to Tesla's safety plan so they can save face.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Science is validly questioned by those who understand it. Elon is no more entitled to question the Science of Epidemiology and the initial conclusions of the world’s leading Epidemiologists, than you are to question the Science of Quantum Dynamics.

Do you believe you are entitled to question the science of Quantum Dynamics?

Everyone should not only be allowed, but encouraged to question everything. Blind belief is never a good thing.

 

[rk20]

Elon and I see eye to eye on the belief that "experts" should ALWAYS be questioned. Because all too often their thinking has unseen flaws. Don't hesitate to at least question someone just because they are the supposed "expert". Experts regularly fail to provide good guidance.

It is one thing for rational criticism of experts, another entirely for ignorant morons to float conspiracy theories.