Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Could it turn into a meme stock like SPCE, and go up 2x, 3x, or 4x? Possibly.

Do I think they'll succeed long term, and become a big, profitable business? Hell no.

They seem to be all talk and PR, and very little show. The CEO seems to think he and his company are on Elon/Tesla's level, but if I'm not mistaken, they've yet to produce any actual customer vehicles.

Also, he's already cashing out and buying large rural mansions/ranches. You can Google what he purchased and his plans to buy more to get dynastic wealth for his family.

The reverse listing, at first glance, also seems like another method of cashing out to avoid having to raise more private equity or go through the scrutiny of an IPO.

They may or may not succeed but that's a couple of red flags that I would look into closely before parting with my dinero.

 

[StealthP3D]

These quotes are from the last page and a half.
A serious well thought out post gets stricken from the record, yet the above quotes all are fine.

Usually i have no problem ignoring this stuff, and i only am trying to make a point, about what direction we want this forum to go. If i can ignore all these..in literally less than 2 pages...people here cant skip one post?

I don't want to speak for the moderators but, from my perspective, the post that was deleted was posted by someone that had lost their posting privileges and then opened another account (also against the rules).

IMO, it wasn't deleted because of the content, it was deleted because the poster broke the rules by establishing yet another account against the forum rules.

 

[saniflash]

found on reddit: http://www.acphd.org/media/576254/press-release-2020.05.13.pdf

-> Tesla is "not engaged in full operations", but going through the "substantial lead time to become fully operational" which the county concluded "can occur safely"

PS. Thanks to @Artful Dodger and @StealthP3D for their continuous contribution to this thread which keeps my learning curve steep.

 

[heltok]

I recommend watching this while pondering:
HW3/HW4
Project Dojo
Rewrite data labelling with 3 orders of magnitude improvement
Lidar being a local optimum
Autopilot Data Engine
Project Vacation
Deepscale.ai
Elon investing in Deepmind to keep tabs on their progress

My conclusion is that Elon very early had a good hunch for how to do AI well long term and did very strategic investments and hires. And it seems that time has validated his hunch.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA
Pre-Market High:
$800.00
(04:00:02 AM) - 2 sec after the opening of the Pre-Market

 

[Christine69420]

Many roads being built at Giga Berlin in this youtube video by Tobias Lindh:

 

[ProfTournesol]

GF3, there is a bridge (for transferring parts) so almost sure now it is the casting shop for the Y production.

did you see how they paint in China? I was curious how they paint so fast, no I know. Really would like to see how the germans will do this.....(not allowed to paint like this in the EU)

Crazy fast building over there! don't have money left but I need to buy buy buy shares..... holy f*ck.

 

[MC3OZ]

I recommend watching this while pondering:
HW3/HW4
Project Dojo
Rewrite data labelling with 3 orders of magnitude improvement
Lidar being a local optimum
Autopilot Data Engine
Project Vacation
Deepscale.ai
Elon investing in Deepmind to keep tabs on their progress

My conclusion is that Elon very early had a good hunch for how to do AI well long term and did very strategic investments and hires. And it seems that time has validated his hunch.

IMO Elon was also quick to change the approach / staff when it wasn't working...

It took a few iterations, and a bit of staff turnover to get it right.

My experience is even very intelligent people will cling to a solution that isn't working, and be reluctant to try something new.

I'm confident now about the approach they seem to have the right team and the right approach, they seem to have validated the solution, understand what is yet to be done, and have a path to follow.

What i like most of all about their system is, it learns from its mistakes... and those mistakes for part of the test cases for future versions... continual improvement and learning is very powerful, especially with smart people driving the process.

 

[Christine69420]

Tobias Lindh on Twitter

And this video from youtube user Giga Berlin from this morning:

 

[JBRR]

Google Translate

"
Tesla plans to add 4,000 overfilled piles in China by the end of this year"

overfilled piles = superchargers

 

[ZachF]

Google Translate

"
Tesla plans to add 4,000 overfilled piles in China by the end of this year"

overfilled piles = superchargers

Is "overfilled piles" the direct translation for superchargers?

I love it if true, lol. Would also like to see the characters for it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

found on reddit: http://www.acphd.org/media/576254/press-release-2020.05.13.pdf

-> Tesla is "not engaged in full operations", but going through the "substantial lead time to become fully operational" which the county concluded "can occur safely"

View attachment 541624

View attachment 541625

PS. Thanks to @Artful Dodger and @StealthP3D for their continuous contribution to this thread which keeps my learning curve steep.

Regarding where Alameda County is with their preparations, from the same press release (emphases mine):

"Under normal circumstances, we have seven people who perform these functions [contact tracing] for the more than 80 diseases that are required to be reported to the local public health department (e.g., tuberculosis, measles, Hepatitis B). We have already increased that workforce to 60 people and are working on a plan to achieve our goal of 300.
...
The biggest identified challenge for PPE procurement has been a consistent and robust supply chain. Some vendors have indicated concern that PPE supply levels may not be adequate until near the end of the year.
...
Just this week we increased the number of tests being conducted across the County daily by 750, bringing us a giant step toward meeting our goal of 3,100 tests daily."

 

[Christine69420]

Google Translate

"
Tesla plans to add 4,000 overfilled piles in China by the end of this year"

overfilled piles = superchargers

In the early days - in like before - batteries were called Voltaic Piles.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, I just don't want shares called away. I don't buy PUTS because I have zero concerns about the long-term value of the shares, and don't feel like paying the house a premium for insurance I don't need. I don't sell (cash-covered) PUTS because I don't want to tie up capital in cash; I tie it up in SHARES...

Selling puts is too much of a long term commitment, IMHO. The wiggles of the trading channel move too quickly to predict for LEAP-type time frames, it's seldom more than 4-6 weeks to transit the trading range. Now we've done it twice in the past 10 trading days: (that's a whole lotta guessing in advance to profit from the churn; guess wrong, or get the timing wrong, and the house rakes your bet)

View attachment 541497
Note: the Chart above doesn't show it, but TSLA did touch the Upper-BB in After-hrs trading on Apr 29 (after Q1 Earnings), but slumped overnight in typical 'sell-the-news' Wall St. fashion.

@KarenRei has some success with her strategy of 'rolling-over' her options as the SP moves, but to me it's too much work, stress, and expense (my broker charges $20 per contract), especially when I know like 82% of the time where the SP is going, and more importantly the price for the inflection points.

IMHO, this pattern of SP movement (whipsawed @ 2x QQQ macros) will continue until TSLA is listed in the S&P 500. I think it'll be a different rodeo then, but also the world has changed post-covid, and I expect some effect on the macros themselves as the world readjusts.

Tesla China will be STELLAR. China has TWO space programs: CNSA and GF3! Germany will be massive, and will drag their auto industry (kicking, moaning, kvetching) into the EV future. Japan is the last hurdle for EV adoption, with their staid and orthodox automakers. But now, Tesla's newest Board Member brings a deep understanding of Japanese culture, industry, and finance. Imma call it right now: Mission: Possible! Together, Elon and Hiro will change Japan in a way MacArther never could. #Renewables

Here's on last short-term prediction for Tesla Battery Day: Wall St. will buy the rumor, and sell the news. Because the art of Japanese Kabuki Theatre demands and sets the form of the play.

View attachment 541495

Cheers!

I sell weekly puts against $145k of cash capital I have in my trading account and am currently adding $5-10k a week extra from premiums. When the puts occasionally get exercised, I either sell a covered call for more premiums or, as was the case with "the Tweet" a couple of weeks back, just sell the shares the following week for more profit and then sell another put against the cash. Rinse-repeat.

This makes money while the SP is wandering about in a bounded range. It also keeps me in cash most of the time in case of a big drop (lesson learned from C19).

I have my core shares that I sell covered calls against - I don't want them called away, so I tend to target above strikes that are protected with existing call volumes. This is less profitable and I started using the premiums to buy extra core shares - bought extra $TSLA in the last couple of weeks.

So yeah, HODLing is great, but you can make money with your capital as well, seems crazy not to, actually.

Not an advice, but my trading account was $3k in September, hit $180k just before C19 and now is around $220k.

Plus it's entertaining to have some skin in the game every Friday - adds a bit of spice to proceedings or was it stress...?

 

[jerry33]

i found this so interesting "Elon is a man on a mission" they keep stating it but they still don't get it ...
he is on a mission exactly right ....read the mission statement you dolts ... these folks are supposed to be financial/business reporters i guess they skipped mission statements/business plans in business school

I guess that because many mission statements are just inane platitudes, there is little attention paid to the few that actually mean something.

 

[Tslynk67]

If you're going to post Rob's stuff, at least spell his name correctly.

Shortandfraud?

 

[Tslynk67]

TSLA
Pre-Market High:
$800.00
(04:00:02 AM) - 2 sec after the opening of the Pre-Market

Pre-Market volume is the lowest I've seen for a long time...

 

[mongo]

Adding to @RobStark's post: The Michigan Tesla Showroom will be in a former Chrysler Jeep location off I-75 on Dixie Highway in Clarkston
(Take that, Jeremy. Tesla put the T in Clarkson)

Payne: As California battle rages, Tesla celebrates Michigan win with its first store

did you see how they paint in China? I was curious how they paint so fast, no I know. Really would like to see how the germans will do this.....(not allowed to paint like this in the EU)

The EU doesn't allow dry fall paint?

In the early days - in like before - batteries were called Voltaic Piles.

Till he was arrested for a salted battery.

I sell weekly puts against $145k of cash capital I have in my trading account and am currently adding $5-10k a week extra from premiums. When the puts occasionally get exercised, I either sell a covered call for more premiums or, as was the case with "the Tweet" a couple of weeks back, just sell the shares the following week for more profit and then sell another put against the cash. Rinse-repeat.

This makes money while the SP is wandering about in a bounded range. It also keeps me in cash most of the time in case of a big drop (lesson learned from C19).

How do you stay in cash during a big drop if you have covered puts which would be triggered on a drop? Are you only putting part of your cash in play?

 

[RationalOptimist]

I sell weekly puts against $145k of cash capital I have in my trading account and am currently adding $5-10k a week extra from premiums. When the puts occasionally get exercised, I either sell a covered call for more premiums or, as was the case with "the Tweet" a couple of weeks back, just sell the shares the following week for more profit and then sell another put against the cash. Rinse-repeat.


This makes money while the SP is wandering about in a bounded range. It also keeps me in cash most of the time in case of a big drop (lesson learned from C19).

I have my core shares that I sell covered calls against - I don't want them called away, so I tend to target above strikes that are protected with existing call volumes. This is less profitable and I started using the premiums to buy extra core shares - bought extra $TSLA in the last couple of weeks.

So yeah, HODLing is great, but you can make money with your capital as well, seems crazy not to, actually.

Not an advice, but my trading account was $3k in September, hit $180k just before C19 and now is around $220k.

Plus it's entertaining to have some skin in the game every Friday - adds a bit of spice to proceedings or was it stress...?

I think this is incredibly risky strategy. A big drop -- and there could easily be a big drop for lots of reasons beyond "Musk rushed to hospital w covid19 symptoms" -- could wipe out 30 x the money you make from the sale.

 

[Tslynk67]

Adding to @RobStark's post: The Michigan Tesla Showroom will be in a former Chrysler Jeep location off I-75 on Dixie Highway in Clarkston
(Take that, Jeremy. Tesla put the T in Clarkson)

Payne: As California battle rages, Tesla celebrates Michigan win with its first store



The EU doesn't allow dry fall paint?



Till he was arrested for a salted battery.



How do you stay in cash during a big drop if you have covered puts which would be triggered on a drop? Are you only putting part of your cash in play?

That's the risk of this strategy - a sudden big move down (or up for covered calls). Indeed I got caught in this at the beginning of C19, got it all wrong and my account went down from $180k to $65k, but selling 100 shares and buying June 2022 LEAPS when it was near the bottom recovered much of that back.

Of course if the puts are cash-covered then you can just take the paper loss and sit on the shares until the SP rises.

Although I have (almost) enough to write 2 weekly puts, I do one per week, the longer strike gives a better premium, but more risk, plus if I'm allocated the shares one week, if necessary I can sell them the week after in case I'm short for the second exercise.

Sometimes I close the position before Friday close, typically when I can realise 90% profits, then I'll write another one closer to the money.

End of the day, as long as I can buy the shares, I don't see a big risk in buying them at a discount. Even if the SP tanks, cost of calls will tank too, and rise quicker, so...