Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Let me be clear. The small pullback today is confirmation of the big gain yesterday. The market is coming at accept that Tesla is now the most important automaker on the planet, just 8% behind the market cap of Toyota. This is no fluke, no hype.

 

[jhm]

I gotta say you have some low expectations for Tesla as a company then over the next year. Fair value of Tesla goes up dramatically during Q3. If Tesla executes on Q3 & Q4, then it's likely 1,200 by first month of Q4, 1,500 by first month of Q1 2021.

What is your price expectation 252 trading days out?

 

[SpeedGoat]

NASDAQ, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN graphs are looking pretty much the same right now. Whatever is happening to TSLA is also happening to others that I have checked.

So you are saying it must be a really big hedge fund working against TSLA this time if it is also manipulating AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN.

Right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What is your price expectation 252 trading days out?

$2,000

Right around this time next year, Model Y MIC will be fully ramped, Giga Berlin will start production of Model Y, and Cybertruck will be close to starting production. Combined all that with the fact that they'll be making anywhere from 225-250k vehicles a quarter by that point, I think $2,000 is very reasonable.

I'm leaving all FSD advancements and potential revenue out of my estimate and even Tesla Energy(since we don't know exactly how it'll ramp over the next year. Could be a nice surprise)

Btw I agree with your first post. Nothing wrong with a down day after a big move. I kinda expected it since we didn't have super strong volume on the up day yesterday.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So you are saying it must be a really big hedge fund working against TSLA this time if it is also manipulating AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN.

No, I'm pointing out that TSLA is tracking NASDAQ and a few other big name stocks I randomly checked. People tend to ask "why is TSLA going up/down", and in today's case, it is just following the broader market.

 

[avoigt]

Sure you can. Just open the link in a new 'Private Window' or 'Incognito' mode or whatever is suitable in your configuration. You can also simple use a different web browser in which you are not logged in.

The only difference is you will not be able to use certain Twitter features like viewing a User's "Tweets with Replies", but given that you already have a link to follow, that won't matter in this case.

Now as to the wisdom of reading redFay's tweets, well YMMV...

Cheers!

Thanks and good to know that there are workarounds I have not been aware about but frankly every additional click to read something from Fred is one click too much.

 

[StealthP3D]

Don't get me wrong. I want to see Tesla reach a solid $1200 in about 252 trading days (1 year). This implies an average daily gain of just 0.114% or about $1.03 while the stock price is near $900.

I would be very happy with even less, say an average daily gain of only 0.101% over the next 252 trading days. I also won't complain if it reaches $1200 by next week!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is now ... just 8% behind the market cap of Toyota

Lol, 5.5% behind, as of 12:20 pm EDT

 

[dww12]

Wow, it’s going to be a $60 round trip. Same as yesterday’s one way ticket.

 

[Mo City]

A huge bounce back for the German big 3 so far today after a swoon yesterday.

Can someone explain this?

EDIT: NVM. Forgot about the subsidy.

 

[FreshPrince]

Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier
Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier

Reads like paid advertising, full of nonsense, but there's no disclaimers that it is.

EDIT: quick summary: article is gratuitously sprinkled with Tesla and Musk keywords, making nonsensical comparisons between CEOs. Main point is that Nikola is going for reverse IPO to ride Tesla coattails and wants to be valued at 10billion. LoL.

 

[elasalle]

Folks, what's the prevailing wisdom regarding ITM LEAPS? I have profitable Jan 2021 $875's - would I get better returns selling and going for a further-out/higher strike?

It depends ..
But if you want to lock in gains, expand event horizon then yes selling/rolling and moving to OTM 2022's is one way to play it. (more leverage, more time)

 

[AZRI11]

Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier
Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier

Reads like paid advertising, full of nonsense, but there's no disclaimers that it is.

Written by Russ Mitchell. He strongly dislikes Elon and donated money to the guy suing musk (Aaron Greenspan) and don't forget L.A. Times needs ad dollars from legacy to survive.

 

[jhm]

$2,000

Right around this time next year, Model Y MIC will be fully ramped, Giga Berlin will start production of Model Y, and Cybertruck will be close to starting production. Combined all that with the fact that they'll be making anywhere from 225-250k vehicles a quarter by that point, I think $2,000 is very reasonable.

I'm leaving all FSD advancements and potential revenue out of my estimate and even Tesla Energy(since we don't know exactly how it'll ramp over the next year. Could be a nice surprise)

Btw I agree with your first post. Nothing wrong with a down day after a big move. I kinda expected it since we didn't have super strong volume on the up day yesterday.

Thanks. So under your price target, the least volatile path to $2000 is a daily gain of 0.317% or about $2.86 (while the price is near $900). Personally, I am content with a daily gain that is just a few bucks.

Just curious, do you see the price of Tesla reaching $4444 in 24 months or do you think the annual appreciation will slow down after the next 12 months? I'd love to see the share price keep growing at 33% per year for the next 8 or more years, $9000/share in mid-2028. That would make for a lovely retirement, but I'm in no particular hurry.

 

[MarcoRP]

Apparently the first V3 Supercharger in Taiwan is under construction at the National University of Taiwan in Taipei. It’s a massive campus of course, but I should get the specific details tomorrow.View attachment 542301

Finally, after almost 2 weeks, I’m told that the Supercharger will be built at the NTU Xinhai Parking, on the northeast corner of campus. Construction should start later this month, per a trustworthy source in Taiwan. Still V3

 

[oldTAVguy]

Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier
Electric truck maker Nikola looks like Tesla 2.0 — except even riskier

Reads like paid advertising, full of nonsense, but there's no disclaimers that it is.

Can you provide a detailed summary. I will not cross an LA times paywall!!!!!!

 

[MartinAustin]

In 2016 after the Model 3 reveal, I speculated that attendance at dealership lots was going to fall for the "mini-premium" brands like Acura, Infiniti and so on - and this ought to be an indicator of the storm about to hit those automakers. Because buyers of those brands love the appearance of status, but are happy to switch brands because let's face it, they're nothing but warmed-up Toyotas, Hondas, and Nissans. Looks like this is slowly coming to pass. Tesla is eating the lunch of many of these brands (in addition to the *actual* luxury brands) (skip to 7min 24sec)

 

[jhm]

I would be very happy with even less, say an average daily gain of only 0.101% over the next 252 trading days. I also won't complain if it reaches $1200 by next week!

Yep. Of course if both are true, then going sideways for the 51 weeks following next week will feel pretty anticlimactic. But no real worries though, Tesla's long-term stock history is full of sideways volatility extending for years.

 

[jhm]

Lol, 5.5% behind, as of 12:20 pm EDT

Dang nabbit! I try to stay current.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thanks. So under your price target, the least volatile path to $2000 is a daily gain of 0.317% or about $2.86 (while the price is near $900). Personally, I am content with a daily gain that is just a few bucks.

Just curious, do you see the price of Tesla reaching $4444 in 24 months or do you think the annual appreciation will slow down after the next 12 months? I'd love to see the share price keep growing at 33% per year for the next 8 or more years, $9000/share in mid-2028. That would make for a lovely retirement, but I'm in no particular hurry.

Hmmm 24 months out is definitely harder because of so many variables. The reason I'm confident in a $2,000 share price in 12 months is because the roadmap for the next year is so clear and Tesla has been executing the business extremely well for several quarters now. In fact they're continually ahead of their own guidance when it comes to production. Tesla's ability execute on margin is the most exciting part because it gives Tesla ton's of flexibility with pricing(increasing Model Y Fremont margins and MIC Model 3 margins will easily offset the recent Model 3 US price drop). It's still crazy to me that Tesla could likely more than double revenue in Q4 from Q1 in the same year, given the scale of the business

When it comes to 24 months, it's harder to predict that Tesla will again double quarterly revenue rates from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. During the time frame both Cybertruck and Semi will be ramping production as well as Giga Berlin Model Y which will help, but for Tesla to again double revenue they'll need Tesla Energy to grow quite a bit. The obvious huge wild card is FSD/Robotaxi. They could also only increase revenue by 50-60% on a quarterly revenue rate but continue to expand margin and still get to the $4,000 share price. Anything past 2 years for this company is practically impossible to calculate........in a good way Too many upside variables that could cause massive re-evaluation of the value of the company.