WARNING: Fanboy Rant
All excellent points, and I'll add one more that is easy to forget because it is hard to model.
Robotaxis will change everything. ...if they happen, which I believe is highly likely.
As
Sam Korus of ARK just tweeted (thanks
@Mo City for the link), the current ecosystem of ICE automakers and dealers and financiers is dependent on two traditions that Tesla robotaxis will destroy. When car-buying is no longer essential because robotaxi-riding is much cheaper and more convenient, that ecosystem (and much of the oil industry) will collapse.
I believe the collapse will happen much faster than most people expect (if they are thinking about it at all, which seems rare). Even
Papa Baron just said he expects TSLA to be up 10x in 10 years. If robotaxis happen, which seems
extremely likely within 10 years, this prediction is
extremely conservative, as calculated by our own
@FrankSG.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential
Tesla is busting their behinds to make correct Elon's estimate of a million robotaxis on the road by
next year. Production of potential robotaxis is increasing. All it will take to convert potential to actual is a software update, maybe more chargers and cleaning companies that will spring up like mushrooms, and consent of the car owners. Some owners here said they will never consent to strangers riding in their car, even though they don't yet know how Tesla could prevent abuse with the interior camera and smartphone software to report and ban abusers. But even these folks said they might make their
second Tesla a robotaxi, especially if it pays for their new Tesla. Every day brings more owners with a second Tesla, especially as TSLA keeps marching upward.
Tesla's mission is to get as many ICE cars off the roads as fast as possible. If too few Tesla owners volunteer their cars to meet robotaxi demand, Tesla could divert production to their own fleet as much as necessary to optimize emissions-reduction. I suspect Tesla is already designing cars specialized to be robotaxis (no steering wheel, more screens)... maybe a cheap one (designed in China?) for basic transportation, and a luxury one for the limousine market. We have no idea what these wily innovators are cooking up, but we do know that Tesla has powerful reasons (both financial and environmental) to make robotaxis happen ASAP, and that Elon doesn't give up.
So I'm with
@Krugerrand who distrusts authorities such as
Bloomberg New Energy Finance and other forecasters thinking inside the box of history. They can't see much beyond the robotaxi singularity. Well, nobody can, including me. But I can see that whenever robotaxis happen, the event will hit the auto industry and TSLA like a nuclear bomb.
And to investors selling TSLA at a piddly $1000, all I can say is... thank you for helping me buy more.
