Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Notice that everyone in the automotive sector is trying to either chase or copy Tesla. This reminds me very much of the Apple moment, and is indicative of where this company and its stock are headed. (Hint: that would be in the upward direction).

 

[Silentk]

Have to agree. Also, the concept of ‘core’ shares is one that I struggle with. Every share I‘ve bought I want to keep, so they are all core.

Seems to me there are two approaches and I don’t believe people can do both well simultaneously:

* Figure out the big picture before others by taking the long view. This led me to buy with confidence an appreciable (for me) number of TSLA shares starting several years ago and to hold them without undo worry through the ups and downs.

- OR -

* Fly close in, down in the weeds and focus on short term movements and a somewhat disjoint set of considerations than those useful for the above approach.

Now, the big picture for Tesla is more clear and TSLA is getting wider recognition as a great stock to have in your portfolio. Now, it doesn’t take that much insight or that many cycles to see its long term value and to buy and hold more as you have the means. (Though we are overall still early days with Tesla and the energy transformation. )

As someone who takes the long view, I’m spending cycles looking at how the big picture will evolve: What are the knock on-effects of Tesla? Musk is pursuing a coordinated strategy interleaved through several companies and a multiplicity of technologies. What are the ramifications? Figure out a fraction of this and buy whatever early, you’ll do well I expect.

Burning cycles to trade short term doesn’t seem worth the opportunity cost to me. It is true that I am content with my long and only ever long TSLA position (though I’d be delighted to increase it of course ) but I don’t think I would spend time gambling to try and increase it even if I weren’t.

It is also much easier to stay long if you don't follow news very closely, just buy and check back in five years. Once you start checking it is very easy to get into FOMO / what if mode; could have sold at 900 and rebought at 300 etc. So I guess what some here do is play both - core shares long, but play shares available for the adrenaline rush

Off-topic - following the NKLA stuff - wow, he really seems to be lying through his teeth, and I am starting to see more clearly how people (not reading TMC of course!) thought Elon was doing the same.

 

[Tslynk67]

12 months ago, a $20 move was 12%...

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with everything you said. I want to add a few points for clarity since this is a difficult topic.

- While Tesla was losing $7B over the past 15 years, they should have been recording $1.9B in Tax Income (income not expense) because these loses would be offset with future income of up to $7B (It's a tax benefit).
- They did not recognize the $1.9B because there was no certainty (more likely than not) that they would ever be profitable.
- Once it becomes "more likely than not" that they will be profitable, they can recorded all or a portion of the $1.9B to income.
- Most of this benefit relates to US taxable losses and thus they would need to convince the auditors (PwC) that US taxable income in the future is more likely than not.
- I agree with @FrankSG 's point that Q4 2020 may be when Tesla first recognizes a portion this tax benefit to the income statement. It will be important that the auditors believe future US profitability is more likely than not. With a powerful Q4 2020, this should convince them.

Thank you but I don’t get it. No, no. It’s not you, it’s me. I got lost at ‘tax income’.

If options is like advanced basket weaving with spider silk, accounting is like — I’ll get back to you on that; I need a nap.

 

[Artful Dodger]

100K share/min avg for the 1st 23 min of the main session. Itsa gonna be spendy to chain this tiger down today...

Max-Pain is gonna be 'Max-Drain' for MMs.

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...t-jefferies?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Analyst Phillipe Houchois nearly doubled his price target on the Palo Alto, Calif., EV maker to $1,200 from $650.

"We see covid-19 as an accelerator of the transition to EVs and renewables, from consumers and public policy," Houchois said in a note to clients.

"Tesla remains significantly ahead of peers in product range, capacity and technology. Near term, EV-friendly incentives in the European Union and lower-priced Model 3 support second-half volume, making Tesla more resilient than peers."

 

[FreqFlyer]

The latest Ars Technica hit piece has hit the web, written by Jonathan "Dr. Moreau" Gitlin himself. They haven't had Gitlin on a Tesla piece for Ars awhile now, saving him for the big hits I guess. This is apparently a Fred Lambert collab too, I'm sure Fred is proud of what he has become these days.

Tesla reportedly shipping Model Ys with significant manufacturing defects

I would warn the media that this is why everyone hates the media and Donald Trump is President but the media doesn't care. They are all owned by the same corporations who benefit no matter who is President anyways.

As I stated before, if buyers would refuse delivery of cars with obvious paint or interior trim issues, this problem would be fixed ASAP. I would love for Tesla to put out a YouTube video of what happens to cars at the end of the production line. Show their QC process (if they have one..........that might be the issue), other car makers do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Upper-BB was $1,047.38 at the Open this morning (by 10:10 it had climbed to $1,049.41). LOTS of headroom for a new ATH.

Cheers!

 

[Knightowl]

Upper-BB was $1,047.38 at the Open this morning (by 10:10 it had climbed to $1,049.41). LOTS of headroom for a new ATH.

View attachment 553115

Cheers!

uh huh, uh huh I want to see 1050 today lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

uh huh, uh huh I want to see 1050 today lol

Lol, the MMs can't afford that this week. But do check back next week, after 'pay-day' is done.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah I think we'll hover near $1000 thru tomorrow, then bust upward next week.

 

[colettimj]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...t-jefferies?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Analyst Phillipe Houchois nearly doubled his price target on the Palo Alto, Calif., EV maker to $1,200 from $650.

"We see covid-19 as an accelerator of the transition to EVs and renewables, from consumers and public policy," Houchois said in a note to clients.

"Tesla remains significantly ahead of peers in product range, capacity and technology. Near term, EV-friendly incentives in the European Union and lower-priced Model 3 support second-half volume, making Tesla more resilient than peers."

Seems to have a pretty good track record per Tipranks

 

[StealthP3D]

Ford announces ‘Hands-Free’ mode with driver-facing camera for Mustang Mach-E - Electrek

'We carefully select the names for our features. We make them intuitive. We don’t over-promise or imply that the features can do more than they can.'
-Ford

...as they call a system that monitors your eyes so that you're ready to take over WITH YOUR HANDS "hands-free".

I don't know where this idea that "Autopilot" implies more capability than provided. As far as I can discern, it's just made up by detractors - It's actually a very historically accurate, descriptive and applicable name for the current capabilities of Tesla's implementation. Why Ford would imply otherwise is simply not logical.

Let's explore the term and it's common usage and meanings before Tesla adopted it:

From Vocabulary.com:

Autopilot

is short for automatic pilot, and the first such system for aircraft was invented in 1912. The nickname came later, in the 1930s. The slang meaning of autopilot is "out of habit," as when a sleep deprived worker goes through his whole day on autopilot.

Merriam-Webster

Autopilot definition

is - a device for automatically steering ships, aircraft, and spacecraft; also : the automatic control provided by such a device.

Etymonline.com

autopilot (n.)

also auto-pilot, 1917, originally in airplanes, from auto- + pilot (n.). Figurative use (of persons, behaviors) by 1996.

Cambridge Dictionary Online:
autopilot
a device that keeps aircraft, spacecraft, and ships moving in a particular direction without human involvement:
The plane was on autopilot when it crashed.

Wikipedia:

An autopilot is a system used to control the trajectory of an aircraft, marine craft or spacecraft without constant manual control by a human operator being required. Autopilots do not replace human operators, but instead they assist them in controlling the vehicle. This allows them to focus on broader aspects of operations such as monitoring the trajectory, weather and systems.[1]

The autopilot is often used in conjunction with the autothrottle, when present, which is the analogous system controlling the power delivered by the engines.

The first fishing boat I worked on was built in 1919 and still had the original autopilot. It had an electric motor controlled by two contacts that were tripped as the compass rotated around. You simply set your heading and the electric motor would steer the rudder left and right to keep the set heading between the two contacts. It liked to weave and wander and was unusable depending upon the boats heading to the waves and their size. The manufacturer proudly called it "Iron Mike", implying that it was a machine that could do the job of a human.

Later fishing boats I worked on had more modern, much more capable autopilots. But none of them could detect logs in the water, water too shallow for the draft of the boat, etc. They couldn't adjust the speed of the boat either, only hold a set course.

Airplanes are what I think popularized the term "Autopilot". While I'm not an expert on autopilots, it's clear the term started with devices to hold a magnetic course. Autopilot did not denote a device that would avoid flocks of birds or other airplanes, or be able to operate without operator oversight. It was simply a device to unload the tedium of maintaining a course and, later, speed and altitude. It did not replace a human or take evasive action.

In terms of the supposed controversy that the term misleads drivers by implying it does more than it's capable of, it might be instructive to look at the use of the term in popular culture. Vocabulary.com provides this: "The slang meaning of autopilot is "out of habit," as when a sleep-deprived worker goes through his whole day on autopilot." Even in popular culture, the term is used for something that is just a semblance of control, not fully alert and aware of everything around.

So it's really baffling where the idea came from that Tesla's use of the term implies more capability than exists. If anything, it offers MORE capabilities than the term denotes in its ability to take evasive action or apply the brakes in some situations in which the operator is negligent in monitoring the environment.

 

[Todd Burch]

Seems to have a pretty good track record per Tipranks
View attachment 553117

That is common among analysts who are TSLA bulls...because they were TSLA bulls.

 

[lafrisbee]

As far as I can tell MS doesn't think NKLA is a good investment either. But he avoids saying it because he wants the bubble to get big in the hope it will reflect poorly on TSLA when it pops. But when the NKLA bubble pops, I think it will help TSLA. It might have an immediate very short-term negative impact at best.

I see your understanding of the perception of the public which buys stock, but I actually think when Nikola fails it will be a positive in the eyes of investors because they will look at the cause for the failure.... The Tesla Semi.

 

[Nocturnal]

Seems to have a pretty good track record per Tipranks
View attachment 553117

My average return is about 400% thanks to Tesla.

 

[ggr]

Fairly low volume today, and plenty of "icicles" (sudden drops in stock price accompanied by large sell orders). Definitely short seller manipulation.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Seems to have a pretty good track record per Tipranks
View attachment 553117

This guy is ranked #447 out of 6700+ and his success rate is just a bit over 50%, makes you wonder about the rest of the board trailing this guy
Analysts remind me of those guys that give out 'free' sports betting picks. If i call, they will tell me Team A, and the next caller gets Team B....his success rate is a guaranteed 100% on that pick for 50% of the callers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1273542062290370561

The Grand Venus has landed in the EU; begin disembarking.

Any peeps in the area up to a little stalkng?

I gotta laugh at all the ship tracking tech and car counting, like clockwork with Tesla. Could you imagine any other car company on the planet, now or ever in history, where their customers try to see if their car arrived in the country yet, or just trying to figure out if they will meet delivery guidance? Where are the Ford or GM ships... Oh, they 3rd partied that too?

We had Storm Chasers, but now there's Car Chasers. As exciting as being inside a live tornado. It's a real story by itself.

 

[StealthP3D]

I see your understanding of the perception of the public which buys stock, but I actually think when Nikola fails it will be a positive in the eyes of investors because they will look at the cause for the failure.... The Tesla Semi.

Ummm...that's what I said. That I think it will help TSLA when the Nikola bubble pops.