I don't think this has been discussed, but its worth discussing:
By my '
back-of-the-envelope' calculations, the gross margin for Model Y could exceed 30% (let's use 30%).
With an ASP of $60K and deliveries of ~18K in Q2, that's a gross profit for Model Y of ~$324M
Indeed, let's check that twice:
- ASP for Q2 mix of LR, w. AWD/P +50% FSD 'take-rate'
- Let's go with 18K 'Y' deliveries (prod. est. via @Troy)
- Est'd gross margin includes a 'Y' premium of $5k + FSD
That yields an est. of three hundred, twenty-four million US dollars just from Model Y.
Paging
@FrankSG
I very much doubt MY will have 30% gross margins this quarter.
First of all, I don't think MY volume will be 18k. Isn't actual production usually closer to 50% of VINs? And you have to subtract a few thousand VINs that were already delivered in Q1.
MiC M3 did similar volume of ~15k in Q1, but still didn't have Fremont M3 margins as per ER comments, so likely was around 15% GM. MY can leverage already available infrastructure at Fremont, but it's still quite far from the volume for which the production system was designed, so I'd expect that the GM won't reach full potential until Q3 or Q4.
$60k sounds like a reasonable ASP, because there are no SR+ sales yet. Maybe it's more like $58-59k, but pretty close. My math for this is as follows:
- I believe usual FSD take-rate is ~20%? If the average for all of Q2 was indeed ~50%, that's an added 30% taking FSD, which at a price of $7k = ~$2k in extra ASP.
- M3 ASP was ~$50k with SR+ sales, but the MY is $3k more expensive than what the M3 used to cost, so ASP of MY with SR+ sales would be ~$53k.
- Now all that's left is to determine how much SR+ sales drag down the ASP. I'd guess this is ~$4k (about a third of M3 are SR+ according to eu-evs.com), so the ASP of MY excluding SR+ should be about $57k.
So with the extra boost from FSD take-rate, perhaps overall MY ASP is about $59k.
I think the margins of M3 were ~20% (pre price cut), so the COGS of the M3 were ~$40k including SR+. It's been said that the MY might cost about the same to produce as the M3, but I'd err on the side of caution, especially this early in a ramp, so I'd add at least $3-4k to that number. Then to account for higher cost because no SR+ are sold, I'd add another $1-2k to that, so I'd guess MY COGS to be around $45k this quarter.
$14k profit divided by $59k ASP, gives a gross margin for MY of 23.7%, far lower than 30%. And that is for a large part due to the FSD take-rate increase. WIthout that, it'd be $12k profit divided by $57k ASP, for a gross margin of 21.1%. Which honestly would be very good so early in a ramp.
I'd guess MY deliveries will be closer to 12k, so that'd be $14k * 12k = $168M in gross profit from the MY.
