Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Twooz]

I’m fascinated by “Tesla Facts” theory about contracting float, a positive feedback loop that could cause a Chernobyl Spike (my term, not his) in SP. It sounds like that could happen so fast that there’s no way to react except for a sell limit.

Is anybody thinking about that? Gabbing a spike that may not be surpassed for years?

Yeah, I know - HODL. But at SOME point in the next few years or so I would like to start realizing some non-paper returns. Is there some kind of sell-ladder strategy that maximizes return and minimizes regret?

What would you put as the sell price?

 

[RobStark]

I was almost ready to sell one of my leaps when I noticed the uptick. Hodoring.

The shorts are starting to wonder why they are hearing the Raynes of Castermere.

No NO NOO!

The Shorts are NOT my Kinsmen.

 

[JustSaying]

"Don't get cocky, kid!" -- Han Solo.

"Pride goes before the fall " Probably that's what Han's would have been told in a 1960's parochial school.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's pretty likely that at some point I will still kick myself for not buying MORE tomorrow. A lesson I've learned the hard way.

I’m fascinated by “Tesla Facts” theory about contracting float, a positive feedback loop that could cause a Chernobyl Spike (my term, not his) in SP. It sounds like that could happen so fast that there’s no way to react except for a sell limit.

Is anybody thinking about that? Gabbing a spike that may not be surpassed for years?

Yeah, I know - HODL. But at SOME point in the next few years or so I would like to start realizing some non-paper returns. Is there some kind of sell-ladder strategy that maximizes return and minimizes regret?

I don't know what the number is, but there is definitely a point where it's a true spike and not really risky to at least trim holdings. Without really thinking, 2k seems a good spot.

 

[Vines]

Shorts Secured!

Just got the email that they are back in stock, get them while they are hot!

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
It is especially maddening after meeting up with your government worker friend and having him brag about his platinum airlime status, presidential hertz status and som hotel status I forgot about. All free, all on government dime.
...

That’s ME!

That I can’t use.

 

[smorgasbord]

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls.

Then you're actually agreeing with what I wrote.

 

[elasalle]

There was a segment on short shorts which I thought was funny(video below).

Other than that there's some guys talking about trading on CNBC right now and one guy mentioned Tesla is up 45% in one week. He also said there's more room for upside probably in the 1570-1580 range. Mostly bullish comments. What's funny was Tim was also on that panel and the anchor let him off easily

They are Short - Short Shorts

 

[azaz]

Gonna revise what I wrote earlier, there is some buying based on SP inclusion but this is mostly just a short burn imo.

still more to go and wish I bought calls last Thursday like I posted I would

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls. I think tomorrow we'll see serious short squeeze behavior. That means sudden large market price purchases. It's a joy to watch.

Likely I'm wrong, like all the other times people have said "short squeeze". But it's sure feeling that way. Minimum 20% up tomorrow if it happens.

AH volume is absolutely insane. We might see 1 million shares traded AH today. This is definitely a boatload of margin calls going out and brokers forcing people out of positions. It's for the broker's own protection too, they are on the hook for massive losses if the short seller client can't come up with the capital to cover their short positions.

Tomorrow is going to be absolutely wild. The Short Burn of Century, Part II?

 

[SOULPEDL]

A lot of rich kids today, a lot of phantasizing about how to spend that new found wealth. But remember, it's all still on paper. Nothing in your pockets until you sell. The price targets are still far away and it could (will) be a rocky ride. Once you start thinking about what you could do with all that paper money, you're stepping on this ice. When it starts plummeting, for days on end, losing hundreds of points, it may be hard for some to hold on, seeing those early retirements, mortgage free homes and new cars disappear again. I made the mistake once, but was lucky to get away with just a scratched ego. Keep a cool head.

Why I was contemplating a sale today. Recall I set my Tesla/Cash ratio at 50/50, so Tesla just ran up to 61%. I think tomorrow might be a good time to rebalance but I need to read some Papafox insight first. My last option puts me at exactly 50%. I might want to "squeeze" a bit more out of it though... What's ARK doing I wonder - Rebalancing?

 

[kyzhk]

How fast can they open up higher option strikes?

Currently the monthly expiration ones only goes up to 1880 with the furthest out one in 2022 june going up to 2100 only.

 

[elasalle]

How fast can they open up higher option strikes?

Currently the monthly expiration ones only goes up to 1880 with the furthest out one in 2022 june going up to 2100 only.

There were Aug 20 calls at 2250 strike today, -- $25-30 range. Interestingly, the further duration ones did not have these strikes.

 

[Prunesquallor]

What would you put as the sell price?

Remember, these are Chernobyl Spikes, not sustainable SPs.
$10,000 is a no-brainer. I’m out.
$5000-$7000 - most likely liquidate. Buy back in with equal number of shares at $2000-$4000 SP.

 

[Twooz]

Remember, these are Chernobyl Spikes, not sustained SPs.
$10,000 is a no-brainer. I’m out.
$5000-$7000 - most likely liquidate. Buy back in with equal number of shares at $2000-$4000 SP.

Well, exactly, so there's no way I can sit there and click sell and catch it. So would be good to have a couple sell orders in place for those prices. I.e. 50% at $5000 and 50% at $9000

 

[Silentk]

Found this article on the VW squeeze http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/

Could S&P inclusion have a similar effect for TSLA ? Bigger? Much bigger? Or pipe dreams? Excerpts below:

...By the end of the week, the 24th, according to Markit Data, 12 per cent of all shares were sold short, around $10bn worth.

...the shares available to buy on the open market had suddenly dropped to just under 6 per cent.

This was a terrifying prospect for the shorts. ...With 12 per cent of the shares outstanding sold short, it was mathematically impossible for every short-seller to buy a share, and therefore close their position.

In other words, half the room were going to be left in a burning building with no way out. A panicked dash for the exit began.

— went from 210 at close Friday to a high of 999 on Tuesday —

...Our equity salesman friend, who had put on the trade for several of his hedge fund clients reminisced, “it remains the single biggest money losing situation I can remember for funds caught short — and a lot of them were”.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm sure this was touched on a lot, but I'm not reading all of today's posts.

I looked on Fidelity at some of the detailed TSLA quotes. They had a breakout of how many shares mutual funds had purchased, and even broke them out by the quarter. It was something like 3.5M last quarter and 1M so far in "current quarter".

Isn't that almost enough detail to tell us how much buying has been done for S&P inclusion?

 

[trix]

Looks like short shorts are back in stock... comes with manufacture defects.

 

[Favguy]

That magic number just keeps showing up!

 

[ggr]

I removed everyone from my Ignore List today. Starting Troll Hunting Fresh. Cheers!!

Funny you say that. I opened an incognito window a few hours ago, and went over to $TSLAQ on twitter. Honestly, except for a couple of pathetic tries to continue the Ghislaine Maxwell meme, it was mostly gloating from people like me. And I haven't seen a decent troll here for a few weeks (but maybe that's because @Right_Said_Fred is doing his job most excellently).