Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

WTH? Just saw 4 sells totaling 3500 shares in the book at $700.00?!?.

I think after hours dips like that are usually a large option execution.

 

[Joe F]

Using Fidelity ATP? I saw it too just an artifact data glitch. Reload ATP and it isn't there.

Yep, ATP. Refreshed and it's gone, but there's this in time&sales:

 

[LTC_RRR]

TSLA attains all-time closing high.

--6.09% GM
--3.94% F
--2.00% FCAU
+2.08% TSLA

Well, do tell!

Now, all we need is a picture of Sandy Munro flanked by two silver chicken statues so we can ask.....

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get ready for it
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Who WAS that masked man with those silver pullets?

 

[Nightshifter]

Where can I find more information concerning the S&P inclusion?
When profit has been made in Q2, inclusion is a given? Or are there other deciding factors in play? Like real people who can decide to complete the inclusion or delay it?

Tesla appears poised to electrify S&P 500
Shows good example of yahoo uptik when added to S&P.

Edit: Sorry guys, wrong link in the first place. Edited.

 

[Steve m]

No it is not "lumpy."

Norway is not Croatia.

It is an important and mature market for Tesla.

And sales data is for half a year. Where Tesla was inactive for about six weeks.

Refusing to accept negative data because it is useful to Tesla bears is foolish. Weeding out information we don't like and only see positive data as correct is confirmation bias to the extreme and dangerous to investors.

Norway seems to be at the far end of the distribution pipeline.

I will wait until Fremont has a few shipments arrive in Europe to gage Norwegian demand.

TSLAQ is irrelevant.

 

[Christine69420]

Norway is not Croatia.

It is an important and mature market for Tesla.

But obviously the Netherlands were much more important since they got all the cars this last fall.

That does not mean that Norwegians don't want any more Teslas. It just means that it makes more sense for Tesla to deliver cars elsewhere. Europe is not one market so there are different rules and taxes. And different margins and delivery costs. Different physical distances to send cars. Different time requirements.

Norway seems to be at the far end of the distribution pipeline.

I will wait until Fremont has a few shipments arrive in Europe to gage Norwegian demand.

TSLAQ is irrelevant.

No inventory cars in Norway. No demand or no supply? Since I know people haven't gotten cars ordered months ago I know which one I believe.

 

[hobbes]

Where can I find more information concerning the S&P inclusion?

1. Click the search icon in the top right corner
2. Enter "inclusion" as search term
3. Check "Search this forum only"
4. Click "Search"
5. Enjoy

 

[Lessmog]

Since we are now in the after hours, let me add my experience to the discussion as to harvesting profit and planned retirement.

First went into tsla in Spring 2013 @50, sold enough to regain that money in Sept @180 and continued to trade blind luck for a while.

A few weeks ago I noticed that the bank where most of my early tsla were parked was charging me a not insignificant amount for the depot, and that those shares had grown in value to more than five times and thus qualified for a simplified gains tax calculation. This is most welcome since their history was convoluted to say the least and it would have taken days to figure out the exact amount of average acquisition value. Stressful work I don't want.

Before, they had been intended to become legacy for the heirs, but in this situation I decided to sell the lot (at ATH, $1k! ) and pay off the part of the mortgage that had paid for my ModelS, while setting aside enough for taxes next year and diversifying my portfolio into banks and medicals. Since then the tsla in my tax-exempt account appreciated another 40% and is now at an incredible amount. (But just wait! )

I retired the other year with a pension plan the big part of which runs out in a few more years, so the extra financial security is most welcome. Thanks, Elon&Team!

Altogether, I feel the biggest win is the sense of calm, knowing that almost whatever happens we can meet our needs and more during the late years of our lives. Even when the insurance pension runs out I could afford to pay off the house and the coming ModelY in cash, if need be, and live off the remaining capital. Pity we can't really travel, now that we could afford to almost without limits, but that is down to health politics closing all borders to us.

Life is Good (as they say in SK ) and I have 5kW solar coming soon. Hope they start selling PW here.
Meanwhile we try to stay healthy and enjoy it all as best we can.

Advice, if you wish

 

[EVortex]

Tacking onto your post, an observation: Tesla is rewriting all the code to make it work in three dimensions, but they still have all the training data that has been gathered to date. None of that has been invalidated in any way, it's still just images, radar returns, and ultrasonic returns. So once the software appears, a week or two later it'll be ready. This is obvious to some, but inconceivable to others.

Tons of existing data for simulations using the new code. I hope Tesla uses the data they have access to so they can do automated testing on countless use case scenarios. A real opportunity for a head start to advance the new code base.

 

[kanweg]

The Netherlands are currently not very interesting, as the benefit in kind was reduced by half as of 1 January although we may see a slight surge at the end of the year when the arrangements get even worse.

The above was interesting for people with company cars. As of this month, private people can enjoy a E4k bonus if they buy a BEV, but there was a max price for the car carefully chosen so Tesla would not qualify.
In any case, the fund was exhausted within a week. In January there will be new money, but like this it will hamper the adoption because you would be stupid to buy a BEV now instead of waiting and buy one later with 10% or more off.

Not really thought out well.

 

[elasalle]

No it is not "lumpy."

Norway is not Croatia.

It is an important and mature market for Tesla.

And sales data is for half a year. Where Tesla was inactive for about six weeks.

Refusing to accept negative data because it is useful to Tesla bears is foolish. Weeding out information we don't like and only see positive data as correct is confirmation bias to the extreme and dangerous to investors.

Is the underlying cause due to over supply or under supply? I think it is the latter. If we had normal supply and there was a dip I would be worried.

 

[kanweg]

Yeah me too. I had my Dad and friends begging me to sell shares on the last run up to 800-900. I sold a small amount. Not going to be listening to them this time. They just don’t understand that Tesla will eventually be a multi trillion dollar company. Current stock price is actually a good deal long term. Why would I sell out now. Especially before Q2 earnings report and Elon is selling short shorts.

AH

You of all people should know best what to say to your dad and friends whenthey suggest you should sell

 

[heltok]

If S&P500 happens with a short squeeze, remember that the index funds have to rebalance and sell AAPL etc to buy TSLA, when they sell AAPL etc to buy TSLA they will influence the prices lowering AAPL etc and increasing TSLA, making them have to rebalance again and again until an equilibrium is found. With limited amount of shares available to sell at each price, this will amplify the movement of each iteration and move the equilibrium point.

The longer it takes for Tesla to get included, the more time the share price will have to rise and the closer to 100% of all shares will be owned by index funds. Which in control theory means that the feedback system gets less and less phase margins with its higher gain factor, the poles are moving closer to the right half plane and that the system becomes less and less stable. Which is good for us but potentially disastrous for shorts and the rest of the economy. Now is a good time read up on stability of control systems.

Not saying that this will happen, Tesla is so far just a tiny fraction of S&P500. Just saying that the stability margin is getting less and less and if longs don’t sell enoughthe system will become unstable and then all hell can break loose.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

But obviously the Netherlands were much more important since they got all the cars this last fall.

That does not mean that Norwegians don't want any more Teslas. It just means that it makes more sense for Tesla to deliver cars elsewhere. Europe is not one market so there are different rules and taxes. And different margins and delivery costs. Different physical distances to send cars. Different time requirements.



No inventory cars in Norway. No demand or no supply? Since I know people haven't gotten cars ordered months ago I know which one I believe.

For what it’s worth from what I can tell there are no inventory cars in Canada either. Seems to me Canada is about 15 percent of North American sales. Not sure.

 

[StealthP3D]

Give it a few years. When batteries become cheap enough, any fool with an ability to stamp car bodies would be able to produce EVs.

That's a gross oversimplification. You also have to know that the red wire goes to the 'positive' and the black wire goes to the 'negative', am I right?

 

[mongo]

Are there really people paying $50 for Jan2022 puts with a strike of $450? These options prices are absurd. Obviously they're for hedging, but TSLA running down to $390 or lower seems.......a longshot.

It's probably a margin offset play. For $5k it takes $45k of risk off the table allowing the holder to buy more shares of TSLA.

 

[mongo]

If S&P500 happens with a short squeeze, remember that the index funds have to rebalance and sell AAPL etc to buy TSLA, when they sell AAPL etc to buy TSLA they will influence the prices lowering AAPL etc and increasing TSLA, making them have to rebalance again and again until an equilibrium is found. With limited amount of shares available to sell at each price, this will amplify the movement of each iteration and move the equilibrium point.

The longer it takes for Tesla to get included, the more time the share price will have to rise and the closer to 100% of all shares will be owned by index funds. Which in control theory means that the feedback system gets less and less phase margins with its higher gain factor, the poles are moving closer to the right half plane and that the system becomes less and less stable. Which is good for us but potentially disastrous for shorts and the rest of the economy. Now is a good time read up on stability of control systems.

Not saying that this will happen, Tesla is so far just a tiny fraction of S&P500. Just saying that the stability margin is getting less and less and if longs don’t sell enoughthe system will become unstable and then all hell can break loose.

TSLA would be added at a fixed weight based on float adjusted market cap. Other weights do not change at that point. The overall value would increase, causing a divisor adjustment.
Rebalancing happens quarterly (baring a large swing).
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...logy-sp-equity-indices-policies-practices.pdf

Addition
Companies are added at the float (capped float) market capitalization weight. For capped indices, refer to the index methodology for details on the capping factor applied to intra-rebalancing additions. The net change to the index market capitalization causes a divisor adjustment.

Deletion
The weights of all stocks in the index will proportionally change. Relative weights will stay the same. The index divisor will change due to the net change in the index market capitalization.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Chevron down 4.20% today.

 

[StealthP3D]

thanks cliffski

I agree traditional automakers are not at all likely to venture into this on their own.

if I have it correct that a neural network approach requires real world miles on something like the scale Tesla is using, than even the big tech companies like Google, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, who in one way or another have a foot in the FSD door, would need to both go the neural net route (not sure if any are yet) AND pair up with an automaker who agrees to have the hardware, software, and upload data/download updates model Tesla has feeding from the automaker partners cars to the tech giants FSD team.

That's exactly how I see it. Disclaimer: I haven't written a line of working code since 1979.

All the "rules based" code, written by all these autonomous driving companies and divisions, will be worth exactly zero. It's worth zero right now, they just don't know it yet (or they would instantly stop development). It will take them years to catch up. The consolation prize is that they should be able to do it faster than Tesla due to more developed neural net technology, more powerful computers, a faster ramp of data collection should be possible (due to not having to rely on data sourced from a single fledgling auto maker) and some tips from employees scalped from Tesla's team to guide their strategy.

 

[BornToFly]

I am at the point where I could sell 2/3 of my shares and retire comfortably. However, I believe that if I hold out until S&P500 inclusion I will have 25-50% more money, and could then buy my dream Newell Motorcoach and a vacation home. So as hard as it is to not lock in my gains right now, I am waiting. I have a friend that is kicking himself for selling TSLA in the 300s after a solid gain. Another friend sold in the 300s and went all in again in the 700s. I believe that selling now would be a big mistake. In fact, I just lost some money buying back 1500SP covered calls for next Friday that I had sold a few months ago. I would not be surprised to see TSLA at 2,000 two weeks from now, and 2,500-3000 after S&P500 announcement.