Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

This thread is definitely stories around a campfire while eating s’mores right now. You know what the next step is, right? Don’t make me be embarrassed on all your behalf’s.

Erm, I think that's the point of having your own island.

 

[lafrisbee]

Uptick in FSD revenue recognition, Model Y scaling, reduced worker salaries, Shanghai plant ramping, and FSD purchases may surprise on margins and GAAP profits.

What if margins again blow people's mind and Tesla somehow managed to post not just a dollar of profit but one of their most profitable quarters?

Also we probably will get some pictures of Semi in production(even an announcement for first deliveries?), and some kind of guide for Q3/4. Maybe even reiterate 500k for the year.

Those things are most likely not priced in. Currently a small profit is priced in for S&P. But Tesla proving that it can kick more ass and take names in the middle of a pandemic than even a typical quarter? Probably not priced in.

I saw most of the pluses you are seeing. And figured we were going to be profitable in Q2.
But then the Elon, "Push to the finishline, it is going to be close for "breaking even" text gave me concern. What had I not seen? My WAG? I think Elon "breaking even" target was "breaking even" without the Fiat credits so he can prove the business can be profitable without a crutch. And that is my WAG.

 

[ZeApelido]

This thread is definitely stories around a campfire while eating s’mores right now. You know what the next step is, right?

Truth or Dare?

 

[Singuy]

I saw most of the pluses you are seeing. And figured we were going to be profitable in Q2.
But then the Elon, "Push to the finishline, it is going to be close for "breaking even" text gave me concern. What had I not seen? My WAG? I think Elon "breaking even" target was "breaking even" without the Fiat credits so he can prove the business can be profitable without a crutch. And that is my WAG.

I think the day he posted the falcon H picture was the day Tesla was Gaap profitable. So he might be pushing break even without tax credit but most likely blew that out of the water by a few thousand deliveries and FSD buy in.

 

[FrankSG]

I read it that way as well...just like ALL the lukewarm EV models from the ICE Automakers claiming they did not make more EV's because they could not get batteries. I'm sorry, I did not read any article where Money was waved in front of the Battery-makers faces begging for batteries because of a backlog of orders for the ICE Companies EV's.
The ICE Auto companies created a scenario where they could save face instead of admitting their vehicles were not near as good as they needed to be, and also cost them money to make.

I agree. I really enjoyed @avoigt 's recent interview with the ex head of R&D at Audi, and I thought the guy was very honest and gave good insights for the most part, except for when he talked about the Audi e-Tron. He kept saying that there was plenty demand, but that the only reason they didn't sell more e-Trons was because of supplier issues. I don't buy this, because then why have we seen so many e-Tron discounts?

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[Artful Dodger]

I love Karen...but that really should be a Medium article are at least a twitter unroll(SP)?

Indeed, or a TMC Forum comment. Paging @KarenRei

Worth a shot, wot?

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

Truth or Dare?

Dare -> Sell $1,600 covered calls on 50% of your TSLA holdings expiring July 24th

 

[kbM3]

Waymo has level 4 in some of their arizona taxis, with no human driver present.

All their L4 stuff is heavily geofenced though, so it's a very very different approach than Teslas where they're aiming for a much broader application.







What cred?

He promised cross-country autonomous drive by 2017- then 2018- we're still waiting.

He promised enhanced summon release in 6 weeks- it took just under a year and continues to underwhelm almost another year later.

He promised feature complete FSD by end of 2019- now it's end of 2020 maybe.

He promised Robotaxis working and approved by regulators at least somewhere in the world by end of 2020- and that clearly ain't happening either.


I believe Musk on a lot of stuff. He seems to be especially good on timelines related to actual manufacturing for example.

But FSD timelines ain't one of the things you should put any faith in what he says and he's got years of track record to prove that.




That said- if the market wants to take his "we are super close for reals this time!" comment seriously and bump the stock up- I'm ok with that

You shouldn’t misuse words like promise. Are you intentionally being disingenuous, or were you legitimately unaware of the definition?

 

[Nocturnal]

I think the day he posted the falcon H picture was the day Tesla was Gaap profitable. So he might be pushing break even without tax credit but most likely blew that out of the water by a few thousand deliveries and FSD buy in.

He also knows that his emails will be leaked and takes pleasure in surprising his detractors. Telling them "we may break even" may have just been sandbagging when he really meant "we may have a nice profit".

 

[The Martian]

Good to see TSLA consolidate around $1400. Refueling for next stage BURN.

 

[joh01652]

$1404! Let's burn some shorts!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Seems like the shorts are the financial equivalent of flat Earthers - no amount of facts or logic will sway them from their belief that Tesla is a fraud on the verge of bankruptcy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So a 3 week(Jul31st) call option for TSLA @ $1700 is $55? Requiring an 25.3% increase in SP within 3 weeks to show value? That's absurd.

Here's hoping whatever volatility formula they're using flattens out just before the 22nd.

 

[LJS22]

You guys ready for some Friday fun?

 

[Fobble]

You guys ready for some Friday fun?

Looks like it will be. Sense a lot of FOMO right now.

 

[scaesare]

Yes exactly, that seems to be the current model, but I think they will end up going further. Essentially the code is:

if(NeuralNetDetectsATrafficCone())
{
Do some hard coded C++ avoidance stuff here;
}

And I think thats one level too low. I think the number of edge cases and weirdness is just too massive for any normal software engineering to handle. I reckon that code will end up looking like this:

if(NeuralNetSeesSomethingWeird())
{
neural nets decides what to do here;
}

I get the impression thats what Karpathy wants, but there is likely pushback because its scary as hell. The problem is, the first approach STILL requries humans to anticipate every poissible 'issue' and wriote code to respond. You are *bound* to miss things. Thus the 75%/25% NN/C++ split may be a 'local maxima' where that approach gets you to 99% autonomous but never 100%. They may *have* to switch to pure NN systems to get to 100%. We know a pure NN can do it, because human drivers do it.

It doesnt worry me as an investor though, because the value of Tesla having autopilot at 99% FSD is still HUGE, so they can ride out that cash for however long it takes them to go 99-100%.

Disclaimer: Teslas coding team know way, way more about this than me, obviously.

From everything I've watched with Karpathy I am also am of the opinion that just about all the decision making will be moved in to the neural net(s) and that procedural code will be relegated to computation and mechanical execution.

I.e.- The neural net will:

• Detect the objects
• Classify the objects
• Manage driving policy
• Determine path selection

and then hand it off to the procedural code to:

• compute steering angle and duration necessary to follow specified path
• command the control electronics to execute the turn
• modulate the drive unit and or brakes for appropriate acceleration profile during the turn

There will, of course, be a constant feedback loop wherein the NN is reacting to the environment (squirrel!) and updating the current path selection given to the procedural code to execute.

 

[Knightshade]

You shouldn’t misuse words like promise. Are you intentionally being disingenuous, or were you legitimately unaware of the definition?

i think you're the one unclear on the definition

At the most I TOTALLY RIDE ELONS JOCK reading of his actual words he at least promised in the 2nd definition under verb.

In any reasonable reading the "I am confident we will have..." line fits the other 2 definitions too.


I love Elon too man- but he has zero idea how long FSD will actually take.

He's literally said if it's something he hasn't done before you can't trust his word on how long things will take (Green cited this in his remarks).

Stop defending bullshit dates.

(and he should stop giving em- it's just fuel for the anti-tesla folks fires)



This is what he said in 2019-his exact words in quotes.

“I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year,” Musk said on stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California. They won’t be “in all jurisdictions, because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere, but I am confident we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year,” he said.




prom·ise
/ˈpräməs/

noun

1. a declaration or assurance that one will do a particular thing or that a particular thing will happen.
   "what happened to all those firm promises of support?"

verb

1. 1.
   assure someone that one will definitely do, give, or arrange something; undertake or declare that something will happen.
   "he promised to forward my mail"
2. 2.
   give good grounds for expecting (a particular occurrence or situation).

 

[elasalle]

Dare -> Sell $1,600 covered calls on 50% of your TSLA holdings expiring July 24th

Earning on Jul 22nd. Hell could breaks loose.

 

[graphilwar]

Dare -> Sell $1,600 covered calls on 50% of your TSLA holdings expiring July 24th

I’ve had some “poop in the pants” moments from doing things like this. The adrenaline rush is like no other. Really makes you feel alive.

 

[Quesder]

'secure' is an adjective in that sentence, not a verb.

Well, I confused that one with the “Tesla secures tax breakdown at Austin”