Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Can I still get in line to ask a question on Jul 22?

 

[PeterJA]

I am pricing into my stock considerations Elon's FSD predictions. I bought shares yesterday instead of waiting.

Futurist Ray Kurzweil observed that humans tend to think of change as linear, not exponential. His favorite example is the legend of The Inventor of Chess and the Emperor of China. Another example is your post.

I know little about neural nets, but I know that supercomputers work fast. Once the self-driving neural nets are set up and the driving data is loaded up, I suspect it will not take long for the nets to learn from the data. Maybe days? Maybe hours? Supercomputers don't learn at human speed.

So I disagree that "it's pretty clear" Tesla will miss Elon's latest deadline, since "technically" 2020 is quite far from over.

Another mistake of linear thinking is assuming that because Elon misjudged the FSD timeline in the past, he will continue to do so. Every day of his team's progress brings him more information on which to base his predictions. And unlike some people, Elon learns from his mistakes. Model S, X and 3 all appeared later than he predicted. Model Y was six months early.

Coincidentally, Seeking Alpo has a positive article today on this subject.

Tesla: The Autopilot 3D Update Will Be A Significant Stock Catalyst (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Summary

Tesla's upcoming 3D update will bring a sudden increase in AI-assisted driving functionality.

Analysts and investors who have failed to realize Tesla's competitive advantage in autonomous driving technology are in for an abrupt awakening.

Financial models mostly still treat Tesla like a conventional automaker but that will no longer be appropriate in the future.​

 

[hobbes]

Elon making some noise on Twitter about the Berlin-made Model Y. Further down in the replies, someone asks: "single or two piece frame cast?", and he responds, "Even more"

This might be huge.. Further down in that thread, he is asked

• Full body casting?
• Are you sticking to modules or going straight from cell to pack?

To both he replies with an eyes emoticon (actually displays "eyes" when you move the mouse pointer on top).
eyes... Wow.

 

[Singuy]

Can I still get in line to ask a question on Jul 22?

You have your sell orders ready for 1500?

 

[Cherry Wine]

I put in a buy to close mine out at 21 cents. I think I missed by 2-3 cents. Penny wise and pound foolish. I still think there is an 83% chance we close below 1501, but I'd prefer to be done for the week before closing.

The premium you got for those should have you in the green up through $1510 or so at least, right? Also, you may want to BTC instead of letting them expire. After hours movement could put them ITM and I think they can still be exercised through tomorrow.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"At fourteen hundred ninety-two
Elon.........................."

Get to work people.

 

[Mo City]

$1,500 is just another number to me but it's very entertaining watching TSLA tease it for the last 2 hours.

Hopefully there is another strong finish at hand to plow right through it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You have your sell orders ready for 1500?

Kind of. I'm fairly resigned to selling after battery day and inclusion has been processed and we're still above $275B market cap. Starting to look a hell of a lot higher tho! Maybe $1800?

Now if you don't mind.......I have an Energy question!

 

[DurandalAI]

Coincidentally, Seeking Alpo has a positive article today on this subject.

Tesla: The Autopilot 3D Update Will Be A Significant Stock Catalyst (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Summary

Tesla's upcoming 3D update will bring a sudden increase in AI-assisted driving functionality.

Analysts and investors who have failed to realize Tesla's competitive advantage in autonomous driving technology are in for an abrupt awakening.

Financial models mostly still treat Tesla like a conventional automaker but that will no longer be appropriate in the future.​

Some may view this 3rd major version of the AP software (maybe more?) as a downside, saying that Tesla is behind. What it tells me is that they're wiling to start from scratch after learning lessons, instead of trying to cludge additional features onto a problematic infrastructure. Fossil automakers are just the opposite, trying to bolt-on things onto existing platforms. That's why they can't get the same efficiency with their BEVs that Tesla can. This third version may or may not do the trick, but they learn from each instance, which is good.

My only hesitation is on the sensor suite. I regularly have instances where AP craps out because it can't see due to being blinded. They need cameras with visors to block glare, I think. May be possible via retrofit, but until the can clean the cameras and shield them from the sun, I don't think they can get level 4 autonomy. (Level 3, I think they can do, which will meet the needs of what FSD was sold as on the website, even if it doesn't meet our expectations or what Elon has said it can do in interviews, etc.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I apologize, I know it was $550k... maybe it was 2000 calls instead of 200.

De nada. "S-curves" are notoriously hard to predict...

Cheers!

 

[vikings123]

$1,500 is just another number to me but it's very entertaining watching TSLA tease it for the last 2 hours.

Hopefully there is another strong finish at hand to plow right through it.

I'm pretty sure it will break 1500 in regular market hours, love the consolidation around 1490-1495.

 

[Sancho]

The one we can all get to! I vote Orcas...

You purchased Orca's Island? Wow, what's your option strategy?

 

[Mike Smith]

As Ihor said yesterday:
"If Tesla’s stock price continues to trend upward, we expect even more short covering as mark-to-market losses accumulate."

When Tesla rose $100 on Friday July 2nd, it then rose another $200 the following Monday July 6th. We're in the exact same situation now.

Edit: Correction: July 2nd was a Thursday, but Friday was a holiday so same thing.

 

[Singuy]

Kind of. I'm fairly resigned to selling after battery day and inclusion has been processed and we're still above $275B market cap. Starting to look a hell of a lot higher tho! Maybe $1800?

Now if you don't mind.......I have an Energy question!

Don't move that goal post. You called us crazy for holding at 1500 so you have to give up some shares and man up.

 

[wipster]

You purchased Orca's Island? Wow, what's your option strategy?

No, that's up to Kruggerand. I just said we should meet there, either at the top of Mt. Constitution or in the clothing optional hot tubs...

 

[Unpilot]

Hi

 

[CorneliusXX]

It's been pointed out by a number of people in the media, the message was vague in that it didn't specify which metric Tesla was close to "breaking even" on. It could be analysts expectations or just about anything. And Elon knows this so he was likely just using it for appearances sake. My personal take is that it's part of his move in recent years towards "under-promise, over-deliver". So, if GAAP profit is considerably above "break-even" it will blow expectations away. Since Elon didn't specify which metric he was speaking of, he can't be held to it.

One interpretation I don't agree with is breaking even after backing out ZEV credits. Because it's arbitrary. ZEV credits are just as real as any other income because they are not going away for the forseeable future. Disappearing credits is a story pushed by the same crowd that says "the competition is coming". Because it's true, if the ICE manufacturers actually deliver EV's in substantial volumes, that would put a serious damper on the value Tesla sees from ZEV credits. But since there is no visible flood of EV's in substantial volumes that I can see in the near future, the ZEV credits are real income that may be recognized in a lumpy fashion for various reasons but that don't show signs of disappearing in the near-term quarters.

Eventually the ZEV credits will disappear but that will be more than made up for by efficiencies of higher volume production and declining battery costs so I don't see ZEV credits as something that needs to be backed out of earnings to "get a more accurate picture". It's a false narrative.

Couldn't agree more. People criticise Tesla for getting free money like that's a problem for a business. If anything, subsidies will continue to increase globally until EV's make up a substantial portion of the fleet.

Could you imagine a job where you get criticised because it is set up in a way that someone else can do half the heavy lifting for you? Insanity that this is an issue.

Students protest in the street about climate change and people are worried about subsidies going away?!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Interesting article about a potential reservoir of untapped revenue...

Tesla [TSLA] Has A Warranty Accounting Mystery

One of these days, Tesla is going to realize it has hundreds of millions of idle excess funds in its warranty reserve, and when it converts some of it into net income, the shorts are gonna scream: Managing Earnings! Manipulating Accruals! Or maybe the fear of provoking that outcry is preventing them from doing it? Either way, the bottom line is that Tesla’s accruals are far in excess of its claims, and its claims are quite low while its accruals are quite high, compared to other automakers.

If accrual management is an issue, there's about 500 CFO's in the S&P500 who are about to get fired.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Apparently money doesn't buy happiness because there is a linear relationship between SP and amount of bickering on this forum.

What do you mean by that?!

 

[Quesder]

Sold $10600 worth MSFT and bought that much TSLA shares at $1407.6 this morning after reading posts of this forum. Kicked myself again for not buying more