Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Off Shore]

Man the more I think about this split I’m just in awe. The rise from 300-2300 happened SO FAST. Now it’s like we’re suddenly back in 2016 and I have 5 times as many shares.....let’s do it again!

futures up, good luck all
See ya tmrw AM

$300 was April of bloody 2017. 300-2300 took three and a half years.
Edit:

 

[engle]

Covid numbers are looking good so I am anticipating transitions to Covid battered stocks after Tesla's initial momentum fades. These same momentum traders will be back a week prior to battery day for the buy the rumor portion of the run up as they withdraw from Covid battered stocks. Coincidentally, this is also when Covid numbers start to creep up as it's 2-3 weeks after school opened.

Maybe. But "Covid-battered stocks" weren't battered by Covid-19, they were slammed by the awful economic side effects of shutting the USA down to try to "slow the spread". The US economy won't recover overnight. That said, the markets anticipate the future when its economy will return to a semblance of normality one hopes. Unfortunately, this Fall & Winter is supposed to be even worse health-wise in the USA with the double whammy of COVID-19 and the seasonal flu.

I agree there will be a lot of selling pressure when the professional momentum and algorithmic traders decide $TSLA FOMO and short-covering are over. I'm hoping we get added to S&P 500 as part of their September rebalancing which will stabilize the price later on at these elevated levels by taking a huge block of stock out of circulation. Either way, I'm sitting pretty with an average cost basis of $30! That's only $6 per gigafactory.

I have an old software consulting friend who now works here:

Perhaps I'll send him a message and ask him what he personally thinks about TSLA pre- and post-split...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now 443.50 per share on TD Ameritrade...

NASDAQ-100 Futures up over 3/4 of a percent:

Last: 12,086.50 +94.75 +0.79% 23:54:39 ET

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Covid numbers are looking good so I am anticipating transitions to Covid battered stocks after Tesla's initial momentum fades. These same momentum traders will be back a week prior to battery day for the buy the rumor portion of the run up as they withdraw from Covid battered stocks. Coincidentally, this is also when Covid numbers start to creek up as it's 2-3 weeks after school opened.

Tesla isn't really part of the Covid stocks though. Tesla doesn't benefit from Covid getting worse again like the Covid stocks. You're kinda grouping Tesla in with the Covid benefiting stocks simply because Tesla has rallied at the same time those Covid stocks. But in reality, Tesla's rally has had nothing to do with them

Not to say Tesla can't go down. But it's flawed logic to think Tesla will sell off just because of that rotation

 

[CaliBear1]

With great expansion possibilities!

Some islands with mountains, and good geothermal energy are very reasonably priced ...

 

[SPadival]

Quick update on the Teslacharts "bombshell" podcast with Karl Hansen: .. err.. no bombshell

TC's Chartcast

I listened so that you don't have to:

• Elon called a meeting about $37mil in copper "theft" - Karl was not in the meeting. So not clear on whether it was really unaccounted for inventory or just scrap.. tried unsuccessfully to tie it with Linette/Tripp FUD about scrap value of $150 mil
• Mexican cartels are peddling “super meth” in the GF, which has Lithium in it - that was an "ahaha" moment for Karl
• He went on and on about a stolen badge making machine, the lady in charge of said machine, sundry drug use in GF etc etc.
• Karl said he did some “open source investigation”, which I think is an euphemism for googling

I fell asleep during the 2nd part.

 

[engle]

$300 was April of bloody 2017. 300-2300 took three and a half years.
Edit:

If it takes another three and a half years to go from $442 to $3,394 post-split I sure ain't complaining! March 2024. Heck. I'd be thrilled if we are around a $1T market cap by then ($1,073 post-split).

An additional 766% gain would result in a $3.16T market cap. Is that even realistic without inflation? Perhaps if Tesla really manages to deploy robotaxis, and BEV adoption is faster than currently anticipated with Tesla maintaining a strong share. Uber and Lyft's combined market cap is $70B but they are both struggling now and in the red...

 

[Singuy]

Tesla isn't really part of the Covid stocks though. Tesla doesn't benefit from Covid getting worse again like the Covid stocks. You're kinda grouping Tesla in with the Covid benefiting stocks simply because Tesla has rallied at the same time those Covid stocks. But in reality, Tesla's rally has had nothing to do with them

Not to say Tesla can't go down. But it's flawed logic to think Tesla will sell off just because of that rotation

Tesla is grouped as a tech stock and there has been rotations between Tech and everything else for these momentum traders. So the "macro" environment for Tesla is how QQQ performs in which Tesla will trade accordingly when there's no news(and we are talking about the possibility of zero news between split and battery day).

 

[Causalien]

I feel better with Wells Fargo than I would with IB. When I transferred 500 TSLA from IB to Wells back in spring of 2017, IB called me up and started yelling at me. I calmly told the man I had a heart attack and bypass surgery and needed to consolidate for estate planning. He stopped yelling and wished me good luck before hanging up. Around that time I read that the owner/founder was a big short of TSLA. Do not know if that is true or not, but it left a serious impression on me.

LOL.

Similar story but with TD.

I transferred a significant portion of TSLA away from TD to spread out over different brokerages. The next 3 days I read on /wsb that ppl are getting error messages while trading TSLA. Something like Invalid Symbol or something. I don't think I am that big, but the coincidence is too much.

And my account is still locked. Been a month since I did that, but according to them, this is "normal business". I am like... .what kind of normal business allows you to block me from trading or making any cash transfers for a month?

Sigh.... got to get this sorted out soon.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla is grouped as a tech stock and there has been rotations between Tech and everything else for these momentum traders. So the "macro" environment for Tesla is how QQQ performs in which Tesla will trade accordingly when there's no news(and we are talking about the possibility of zero news between split and battery day).

We can agree to disagree but I think there's a difference between tech in general and the "covid" stock play which is a very select group of tech.

I don't see really Tesla stock's trading action being affected by the Covid tech stock's action over the past few months. Tesla's rallies have started off of specific Tesla events/news.

 

[Singuy]

We can agree to disagree but I think there's a difference between tech in general and the "covid" stock play which is a very select group of tech.

I don't see really Tesla stock's trading action being affected by the Covid tech stock's action over the past few months. Tesla's rallies have started off of specific Tesla events/news.

Tesla earnings were not affected by Covid unlike Legacy auto.
All the tech stocks were not affected by Covid either. The earnings for these companies was what set off the bull run as investors see either zero affect or raised guidance. Lets not forget half the run is solely on the backs of a split so that is an external event not Covid related. But the initial run to post q2 earnings definitely had Covid help supercharging the run by showing investors just how resilience Tesla is and how legacy auto makers need to scale back R&D to offset the billions they are losing this year.

 

[UncaNed]

flybrandenburg - today:

How do those tall cranes with long horizontal booms stay standing without the huge concrete counterweights moving fore and aft to maintain center of gravity over such tiny bases?

It's whats keeping me up at night.

 

[StealthP3D]

Food for Thought ... from @JPR007 ... makes a case justifying a SP of $3442 in 2020 (thread).

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1299926974056423427

And that bullish projection doesn't even contemplate revenues from Tesla Energy or anything other than automotive!

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah I did slightly OTM call options through 2017-2018. Spread out across months / LEAPS. Incredible loss. Had I simply held, could have bought a house. Lessons learned. TSLA may have a bright future, but the path forward can be unpredictable, volatile. I mean 'funding secured' day, was a nightmare.

@kcveins and @Robocop , how far out were your expirations?

 

[gabeincal]

How’s Frankfurt?

 

[jpsgoneev]

And that bullish projection doesn't even contemplate revenues from Tesla Energy or anything other than automotive!

Exactly. None of the recent bullish projections do (not the $1900, $2200, $2450, $3400, $3442 ... ARK’s intentionally excluded). And that makes these all the more compelling and exciting for bulls. A big chunk of future revenue is not even being accounted for. So much more room to run for the SP (mid-term to long-term).

Kinda hard to wrap your head around the numbers especially as Tesla energy begins to accelerate. The street will be further befuddled. Can’t wait for BD to see how the runway will be opening up for Tesla (and TSLA).

 

[Bet TSLA]

Exactly. None of the recent bullish projections do (not the $1900, $2200, $2450, $3400, $3442 ... ARK’s intentionally excluded). And that makes these all the more compelling and exciting for bulls. A big chunk of future revenue is not even being accounted for. So much more room to run for the SP (mid-term to long-term).

Kinda hard to wrap your head around the numbers especially as Tesla energy begins to accelerate. The street will be further befuddled. Can’t wait for BD to see how the runway will be opening up for Tesla (and TSLA).

ARK, last I heard, explicitly doesn't include anything for Tesla Energy. This is so their projections can be compared to others. So why are you excluding them? Has this changed?

 

[ThisStockGood]

Tesla Inc.

TL0: in USD 456,34

 

[jpsgoneev]

ARK, last I heard, explicitly doesn't include anything for Tesla Energy. This is so their projections can be compared to others. So why are you excluding them? Has this changed?

Correct ... on ARK not including TE. Their $3400 is there. I excluded their often-quoted $7k bc it does consider some autonomous. And it was not an actual scenario price target but rather an ‘expected value’ between two extreme-ish bull and bear scenarios. Also, autonomous would be considered part of ‘other’ in @StealthP3D’s post. Ehh, wth ...$7k.

 

[StealthP3D]

Takes 100 gigafactories to complete elons mission. So that's the time line for when he let off the gas on capex as any profits he produces before this time ends up as tax payments to Uncle Sam

I disagree. There will never be 100 Gigafactories. Tesla will simply speed the throughput of existing factories at least 4-fold. Therefore 25 or fewer factories could do the same job tomorrow as 100 factories could do today.