Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I disagree. There will never be 100 Gigafactories. Tesla will simply speed the throughput of existing factories at least 4-fold. Therefore 25 or fewer factories could do the same job tomorrow as 100 factories could do today.

Probably true since when he said this his impression of Tesla's ability to produce was still in a bind, so probably hard for him to imagine doing 4x the work when he was having trouble getting to 1x the work.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Here it is after 9PM EDT and E*Trade TSLA option numbers are still screwed up. Right number of contracts, but the prices and values of the positions are all wrong. I'm surprised that they are still broken at this late hour. They have to fix this in order to be able to say on Monday how much your account is up or down. Well, I guess they don't actually have to say, but it's kind of pathetic if they don't.

At least they have the stock price correct now. And I'm sure the option prices will be correct once they start trading in the morning, but that's really not good enough.

And now it's after 2AM EDT and E*Trade is still broken in the same way. I tried their live chat help and had a conversation after waiting almost an hour. Sorry, we're still processing the forward split dividend. The numbers in your account should fix themselves by market open tomorrow. Well, no, I don't actually know that but I'm guessing it should. Might be sooner.

So, essentially useless. I'm not impressed. I pointed out that pretty much their only job is to get the numbers right and if they can't do that then I have no use for their services. But there's no actual use complaining to a customer service person.

 

[StealthP3D]

The best part of the thread IMHO is how he explains the mechanism for perpetuating a naked short position thereby avoiding paying carrying charges for share borrowing ( @Boomer19 this explains why TSLA borrow rates are low; this scheme doesn't depend on borrowing shares conventionally thus does not drive up the cost of borrowing shares), all the while never intending to deliver actual shares associated with these outsized naked short sales. @luvb2b comments that this is likely an illegal scheme.

Paging @StealthP3D @FrankSG @Hock1 I think we finally have stumbled upon our viable mechanism for naked shorting, and by extention, how this scheme is disrupted by inducing other MMs to call in their short shares in advance of a Share Dividend dispersment.

This scheme depends upon the hedge fund purchasing Options, which then induces the MM immediately to sell large numbers of TSLA shares due to their delta-hedging requirements. The hedge fund thus able to employ naked short selling by MMs to sell massive numbers of shares w/o locating them first, or paying the fees associated with borrowing shares to sell short. The other advantages are speed and the ability to sell arbitary numbers of shares without the normally expected restricts of supply, demand, and cost elastisity of borrowing those shares. Or as @Unpilot would say, "bastages".

This is the ACTUAL MECHANISM by which this scheme is able to crater the SP: They can short sell an arbitary number of shares, indeed however many shares are needed, to burn through the order book and thus force the SP to their desired price, thus making these shorts almost instaltly profitable. That's what we saw with the huge SP plunges on Feb 4, 2020 and again on July 13, 2020.

I believe this is also what we saw on Fri, Aug 21, 2020 from 3:32 to 3:36 pm where dumping 573K shares dropped the SP from $2,079.89 to $2,049.05 in 5 minutes. And magically, Call Writers (mostly MMs) saved about $28M in payouts to holders of those $2,050 Strike Call contracts (just ask for details if ur curious).

Given all the facts we know, it would be hard to imagine that Elon is not aware of these short-selling market-maker shenanigans. That's why I find it relevant that he has wisely saved enough shareholder authorized shares to pull a 2 for 1 split at any time it would be most beneficial. This means he (the BoD) can call for another split without warning and without needing further shareholder authorization. While the short-sellers may not be the sharpest pencils in the box, the MM's and their short-selling activities are in a different class and they probably learned their lesson the time around. If not, we get another split (and they get more pain all over again).

 

[wipster]

How’s Frankfurt?

Over 450 in Berlin

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree. There will never be 100 Gigafactories. Tesla will simply speed the throughput of existing factories at least 4-fold. Therefore 25 or fewer factories could do the same job tomorrow as 100 factories could do today.

What we should see at Battery Day is cell production needs less physical space...

Austin is also a big chunk of land, we have already seen at Fremont that Tesla is good at squeezing production for multiple vehicles into the one factory....

As well as the run-rate on any individual vehicle line, they will be looking at multiple vehicle lines.... the only real limitation is getting raw materials in and vehicles out... Austin seems to have good access, if logistics get tricky at a factory, Boring Co tunnels might be an option,,,

Fewer larger factories are easier to manage.... especially if the product is complex...

Cell production for energy storage might be a case where smaller factories for local markets are optimal...

 

[MP3Mike]

And now it's after 2AM EDT and E*Trade is still broken in the same way. I tried their live chat help and had a conversation after waiting almost an hour. Sorry, we're still processing the forward split dividend. The numbers in your account should fix themselves by market open tomorrow. Well, no, I don't actually know that but I'm guessing it should. Might be sooner.

So, essentially useless. I'm not impressed. I pointed out that pretty much their only job is to get the numbers right and if they can't do that the I have no use for their services. But there's no actual use complaining to a customer service person.

I don't know that there is really anything they can do until the MM/OTC provide correct prices for the options. Which I thought I heard might not be until Tuesday.

 

[[email protected]]

There is strong evidence that China is looking after China's interests see MIC 2025. Made in China 2025 - Wikipedia

It isn't really spelled out in detail there, but China wants to eliminate oil imports that is why Green Energy and Green Vehicles are on the list.

I don't think Russia is bold enough to meddle in Chinese politics, but the are happy to meddle in US, UK, European, Australian etc politics to slow the decline of the Fossil Fuel industry... The Murdoch media empire is following a similar agenda, because their interests currently align.
It is most unlikely that a Chinese media outlet that would dare to criticize the party line, or would stray from the party line...

Currently China and Tesla have a similar alignment of interests both want to accelerate clean energy and transport, for different reasons, Chinese reasons relate mainly to self interest....

While China and Russia are in different camps on energy, their interests may align on other issues.

IMO Tesla and China will win a stunning victory accelerating clean energy and transport, how long the alignment of interests will last is hard to judge, currently Tesla and China need each other, and both want the same outcome....

The world will be a better place when the clean energy and transport transition is complete, US, UK, Europe and Australia will be less divided, however China is likely to emerge as a very dominant player in economic, technological and military terms.

The hope for the future is that the Chinese leadership becomes less combative and more cooperative and/or that the rest of the world becomes more united. The hope is also the Climate Change is not too bad and future generations can handle the problem.

For now getting clean energy and transport done is the priority, and I welcome Chinese help.

Recently, Russia began supplying vast amounts of NG to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. This connects the vast natural resources of Russia with the energy intensive consumption in China that aspires to be, and maybe already is, the manufacturer of choice for the world. A second pipeline is in the planning stages. Gazprom starts work on Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China It would be helpful to know how these facts are consistent with China's want "to eliminate oil imports." or how Russia and China "are in different camps on energy". As an aside, as a consequence of intentional US policy, this marriage may be a disaster in the making for the US.

 

[samppa]

My european broker hasn't updated share count yet.. using DeGiro, which is owned by Flatex. Still showing pre-split share amount, but now the price looks to have updated.

Starting to consider buying some shares from Frankfurt, just in case I get lucky and get those additional 4 shares for them (no, not really)

 

[CyberDutchie]

380 Euros in Frankfurt, that’s $452.16, up almost $10 from $442.68 or up 2.5%.

 

[engle]

And now it's after 2AM EDT and E*Trade is still broken in the same way. I tried their live chat help and had a conversation after waiting almost an hour. Sorry, we're still processing the forward split dividend. The numbers in your account should fix themselves by market open tomorrow. Well, no, I don't actually know that but I'm guessing it should. Might be sooner.

So, essentially useless. I'm not impressed. I pointed out that pretty much their only job is to get the numbers right and if they can't do that the I have no use for their services. But there's no actual use complaining to a customer service person.

Are you aware that "Morgan Stanley" is buying E*Trade?

"Morgan Stanley (MS) will buy E-Trade Financial (ETFC) in an all-stock deal valued at $13 billion as online brokers have cut stock and ETF trading commissions to $0." That was 2/20/2020 news I didn't check what has happened since...

MS is where our "buddy", AJ works, no?

Meet Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Auto & Shared Mobility Research | Morgan Stanley

"When you meet the management teams and the engineers and the line workers in a car factory in Germany or Japan, you see real passion." What about Palo Alto, Fremont, Sparks, and Shanghai, Adam? Such BS!

IMHO, any NASDAQ gain Monday will set a very positive tone for the week, since we are entering uncharted post-split $TSLA psychological territory...

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to take out the garbage.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't know that there is really anything they can do until the MM/OTC provide correct prices for the options. Which I thought I heard might not be until Tuesday.

They should certainly be able to provide the Friday closing prices and divide them by five. Then they would be able to provide me with an accurate value of my holdings. I'm not expecting them to tell me what price the options will start trading at on Monday, as that's beyond anybody's ability.

 

[MC3OZ]

It would be helpful to know how these facts are consistent with China's want "to eliminate oil imports." or how Russia and China "are in different camps on energy"

Chinese desire to eliminate oil imports and secure oil production in the South China sea, is about eliminating oil imports.

China also intends to build a viable EV export industry...

For energy Chinese energy consumption is still growing, they are also deploying a lot of Renewable Energy, Hydro Nuclear, New Coal generation etc. There will be more generators/pipelines than they need, it is a multi-pronged strategy.

Outside of EVs you can see MIC 2025 mentions "Green Energy" China also wants to be dominant in batteries, renewable energy and nuclear....

So everything I have read implies China wants no dependence on any external country/resource, and plenty of countries dependent on them.

To be at all convinced I would need to know what percentage of Chinese total energy consumption imported NG is, a lot of their newly built coal plants sit idle.. and old plants are mothballed.

However to eliminate oil imports they do need to generate more electricity in addition to their already out-sized growth in electricity demand... ,They are probably using gas how many countries intend to use it as a contingency/transition fuel ... so they will not need it forever.

The Chinese do use imports of Australian coal and other commodities as a bargaining chip, they will reduce or stall imports for political reasons whenever it suits their purpose...any NG deal with Russia suits their purpose . now ... but if it isn't listed as a strategic technology where China wants to dominate it is largely irrelevant.

 

[chrsk]

380 Euros in Frankfurt, that’s $452.16, up almost $10 from $442.68 or up 2.5%.

Or more 456$, (2280$ old price)

 

[Quesder]

Or more 456$, (2280$ old price)

I saw 457.95 so high 2287 something old price. I thought my mind calculation was wrong
Now the split is done I think I can try some option trades

 

[Robocop]

@kcveins and @Robocop , how far out were your expirations?

Losses from call options were often 3 months to 18 months out (the LEAPS always being January or the following January). But plenty of sub-1 year projections. Partly a loss due to a very slow TSLA drop in stock price, but also simply time decay. After losses, became more conservative (long stock) but sometimes sold put spreads which benefited from time decay, rather than get hurt. Those were successful overall. Just happy TSLA still has room to grow, but a little bummed I'm at like 25% of the shares I used to have. I simply didn't know what I was doing then, painful lesson learned!

 

[FrankSG]

Hope this helps:

 

[kanweg]

My european broker hasn't updated share count yet.. using DeGiro, which is owned by Flatex. Still showing pre-split share amount, but now the price looks to have updated.

Starting to consider buying some shares from Frankfurt, just in case I get lucky and get those additional 4 shares for them (no, not really)

Flatex works for me (although it does show a loss since last Friday enough to make a grown man cry).

 

[Aeon]

Everything seems to be working fine with my brokerage. Over the weekend my account showed 5x additional gains with new quantities but Fridays prices - that didn't stick. (And my limit-sell-order didn't execute..) DAMN.

But the HSBC warrants I enjoy playing with currently trade with 5x their typical spread..
That makes total AND zero sense and is a bit annoying right now...

 

[wipster]

460 in Berlin... time for bed!

 

[mad474]

the party seems to be starting