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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The action in Casino Tesla is so good today I can't find any seat available in the poker room, a blackjack table, or at a slot machine. The seats in the High Rollers Room are all taken, too! 21M "new" shares traded in the first 45 minutes. WOW!

Seriously, BOD decided to split around $1,375 meaning they were happy with a $275 post-split price. This means once we get to $550 the BOD could split 2-1 whenever Elon feels he needs to do something to "juice" the action again to help him qualify for his next tranche. $550 is only 20% above the current range...

I understand there are enough shares already "authorized" to do it so a shareholder vote is not required?

looks like the ATH intraday will be breached within the first hour today... :D

[back to Fortnite Contenders League]
Can someone explain this 2 to 1 thing I hear about? Is this normal for a company to be able to split again without the consent of the board or something?
 
Isn't it a pity:

U.S. appeals court tosses Trump bid to roll back fuel efficiency penalties
REUTERS 10:15 AM ET 8/31/2020
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Monday overturned the Trump administration's July 2019 rule that sought to suspend a regulation that more than doubled penalties for automakers failing to meet fuel efficiency requirements.
 
IMO. A lot of buying to deliver dividend shares to those who were told to expect delivery of dividend shares in the next few days. I.e., the manipulators got a pass.

I hope Tesla is paying attention and considering filing a formal complaint with the SEC, for all the good that will do. I do think Tesla should announce it publicly with a good layman's explanation of the shady things happening.
 
Can someone explain this 2 to 1 thing I hear about? Is this normal for a company to be able to split again without the consent of the board or something?

It requires a board (BOD) vote to split the shares. If the company does not have enough shares authorized for issuance then my understanding is that requires a vote of the shareholders to increase the number per the corporate bylaws.

[I remember growing up watching my father painstaking candle plot the daily closing prices and high/low reported by the Wall Street Journal for the stocks he invested in or followed on his special stock chart paper. He was a microwave engineer. I wish he were still around to see how easy we have it today, and to enjoy this ride! My mom is 87. I convinced her to buy some shares at $85 each several years ago. She tried to buy 1,000 but the idiot on the phone at Schwab talked her out of it, telling her that was too much because TSLA was rated an 'F' at the time, so she only bought 200.]
 
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I’m in Canada using qtrade. Same for me, still shows old amount of shares with new price, its kinda depressing!

Questrade is giving the following alert, but the TRADE screen shows my converted # of shares and the current market price, so all good.

upload_2020-8-31_10-29-30.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: capster and Andrei
...and schwab.com is completely down.. :-/

But my shares at nordnet.no is fine, multiplied by 5, and showing same total amount as last week.. bummer. :p
Schwab.com is down? My schwab is okay on Account summary and Positions tab (across 3 accounts). Only error is on Positions/Unrealized gain-loss tab, the “Day Change $/%” is outta whack (waaay on the upside).
 
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Rather than one S or exponential curve, Tesla can lead in many new markets and so you have to overlay the results, so a normalisation in one technology doesn't stop growth in another. Car sales slow, do some eVtol, trucks, Boring Company vehicles, solar, energy storage - one of Musk's companies will do RNA replication, Precision Fermentation, high voltage low-loss long distance transmission. Everything needed for a renewable Earth and Mars.

I think people concentrate on cars, because it is the largest and most easily understood in terms of units and speed of transition.

Commercial vehicles (trucks, vans, lorries, semis, special purpose vehicles) is maybe the next biggest, commercial pressures will probably mean that the S curve will be steeper, but it is fragmented and harder to understand than cars.

Energy storage is likely to be huge, but how huge is very much open to debate. It is a market that is quite small at the moment, so the S curve is not so much about replacement, more about creating the market.

Solar roofs could be large, good looking replacement roofs and roofs on new buildings, if we guestimate 1 billion roofs world wide then the market could be 5% of that per year. But maybe solar roofs have only a small percentage, different styles in different countries, different regulations and the difficulty of recruiting installers mean the the S curve is likely to be slow.

The other products you mention are small markets compared to cars and so don't factor into the overall company S curve much.

HVAC is a potential huge market, just about every building in the world will need it with climate change. Most heating is at present based on fossil fuels (mainly gas), but this needs to be changed to heat pumps over the next couple of decades. Heatwaves in many parts of the world will make air conditioning essential (with wet-bulb temperatures above blood temperature death follows in a few hours), most of the rest of the world's population will have periods when AC is highly desirable for comfort.

Tesla already do insurance and financing to a small extent, the growth of these and other financial services could be extremely fast. Speed will be limited by varied, complex and arcane regulation in various jurisdictions.

The final big one is mobility as a service, the S curve for this could be faster than the car S curve because robotaxis are used for a much larger proportion of the day. I would guess that 50% of all journeys will end up being by robotaxi.
 
Seriously, BOD decided to split around $1,375 meaning they were happy with a $275 post-split price. This means once we get to $550 the BOD could split 2-1 whenever Elon feels he needs to do something to "juice" the action again to help him qualify for his next tranche. $550 is only 20% above the current range...

Elon's compensation package requires the company to meet certain operational goals in addition to the corresponding share price targets in order to be awarded.

In other words, simply "juicing" the share price will not unlock anything if production and revenue goals are not met.

It looks like it paid off to wait until today to balance my portfolio. Sold a bit under 15% of my TSLA this morning for $463 and $468. I fully expect these shares will be worth more in the future but this was was a good time for me to de-risk and re-balance a stock portfolio that was almost entirely TSLA. :)
 
There was a lot of talk about the psychology of TSLA's split. In my undergrad I minored in physics not because I liked it (boring) but because numbers are intuitive to me and physics represented easy grades that was at least a bit more interesting than math. I also had to do these dreaded "arts options" so I loaded up on psychology courses to fulfill that commitment. I figured I was immune to the effects of the psychology of the TSLA split.

Then I looked at my account this morning to be sure everything converted correctly. Prior to split I was 7 shares short of a nice round number of shares. That seemed like a daunting task at $2K+/share. However now I'm only 35 shares short of a nice round number and it immediately seemed like a simpler task to achieve because I have so many shares already and now the price is so low.

Second thing I noticed is my broker charges $10/transaction. Buying 2 shares for a $10 fee feels like a rip-off: $5/share!!! On the other hand, now I can afford 10 shares, that brings the cost down to $1/share, much more reasonable.

It only took about 2-3 seconds for my rational brain to overcome the emotional one and point out the error in my thinking, but for a moment there the psychology of the split affected me, and I thought I'd be immune. Interesting...