Rather than one S or exponential curve, Tesla can lead in many new markets and so you have to overlay the results, so a normalisation in one technology doesn't stop growth in another. Car sales slow, do some eVtol, trucks, Boring Company vehicles, solar, energy storage - one of Musk's companies will do RNA replication, Precision Fermentation, high voltage low-loss long distance transmission. Everything needed for a renewable Earth and Mars.
I think people concentrate on cars, because it is the largest and most easily understood in terms of units and speed of transition.
Commercial vehicles (trucks, vans, lorries, semis, special purpose vehicles) is maybe the next biggest, commercial pressures will probably mean that the S curve will be steeper, but it is fragmented and harder to understand than cars.
Energy storage is likely to be huge, but how huge is very much open to debate. It is a market that is quite small at the moment, so the S curve is not so much about replacement, more about creating the market.
Solar roofs could be large, good looking replacement roofs and roofs on new buildings, if we guestimate 1 billion roofs world wide then the market could be 5% of that per year. But maybe solar roofs have only a small percentage, different styles in different countries, different regulations and the difficulty of recruiting installers mean the the S curve is likely to be slow.
The other products you mention are small markets compared to cars and so don't factor into the overall company S curve much.
HVAC is a potential huge market, just about every building in the world will need it with climate change. Most heating is at present based on fossil fuels (mainly gas), but this needs to be changed to heat pumps over the next couple of decades. Heatwaves in many parts of the world will make air conditioning essential (with wet-bulb temperatures above blood temperature death follows in a few hours), most of the rest of the world's population will have periods when AC is highly desirable for comfort.
Tesla already do insurance and financing to a small extent, the growth of these and other
financial services could be extremely fast. Speed will be limited by varied, complex and arcane regulation in various jurisdictions.
The final big one is
mobility as a service, the S curve for this could be faster than the car S curve because robotaxis are used for a much larger proportion of the day. I would guess that 50% of all journeys will end up being by robotaxi.