Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FYMR]

Buckle up! TSLA could be trading in the $400s for the next 3 to 5 years. If you have a problem with that, you not should be invested in Tesla.

I like that in terms of having time over the next few years to be able to add more shares in my 457(b) at work before another blow up in value. Yet I still want to see growth now.

 

[kanweg]

I don’t buy the Baillie Gifford line about their rule concerning a limit of what they can hold.

They will not have a limit against having money. So, they could have sold it more gently. plus, in a very short time there will be plenty of buyers interested in those chairs,
Unless the idea was to keep as many chairs as possible. Then dumping a bunch in one go helps to make the remaining Chairs less valuable, meeting the rule again.

 

[woodisgood]

No. If you can't stomach being range bound for the next 3 to 5 years, you've lost sight of the mission. Astronauts must be willing to be confined to a small cabin for 6 to 10 months if they ever expect to get to mars. Of course, you can move about in the cabin, but you must be content to remain in the cabin for as long as it takes.

I absolutely agree with what you're saying about being content with being range-bound, but I also fail to see how the stock could possibly remain range-bound if Tesla continues fulfilling the mission.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No. If you can't stomach being range bound for the next 3 to 5 years, you've lost sight of the mission. Astronauts must be willing to be confined to a small cabin for 6 to 10 months if they ever expect to get to mars. Of course, you can move about in the cabin, but you must be content to remain in the cabin for as long as it takes.

Remember y'all....'The longer it bases.......The more violent the move upwards' Heard some oracle lady say that during an interview.

 

[lafrisbee]

The price action today is fascinating. This is my interpretation of what has happened so far.

Firstly, if you look at the shape of the TSLA and NASDAQ charts, they are very similar, but show clear evidence of what @Papafox calls "Dip on Steroids". That is, when the price is dropping, someone piles on to make the dip go down as fast and as far as possible, which is stupid behavior if you want to get the most out of selling lots of shares. But it isn't stupid if you're shorting the stock. It looks to me like they tried to halt this behavior before triggering the uptick rule.

Then something happened that was either really stupid, just coincidence, or really smart, depending on who did it. A minute of heavy selling triggered the uptick rule, and the stock immediately started climbing again. Coincidence is possible, it corresponds exactly to the same drop in the NASDAQ. If it was a short, it was stupid to trigger the uptick rule. If you are really sure that the S&P500 announcement is coming tonight, and you're long, it would make a lot of sense to dump some shares, trigger the rule, buy back, and watch the fireworks overnight.

TL;DR -- I have no idea. But the trading chart looks very different after 13:43EDT than before it.

So do you think it could have been Tesla selling part of the 5 Billion in a 4-D chess move to f-up the MM's?

 

[Tim S]

Buckle up! TSLA could be trading in the $400s for the next 3 to 5 years. If you have a problem with that, you should not be invested in Tesla.

That's possible, but I am betting (literally, with lots of money) that this post will not age well.

 

[perwis]

Cudos to Rob Maurer to end today’s Tesla Daily talking about the passing of Jack Rickard and cutting together some nice shots of Jack.

Especially the final shot of Jack getting into his new badass black Model Y. Took this screenshot so that I will always remember this and for you all.

 

[MABMAB]

So 500 news could really shake things more.

if not soon, might need to wait out share sale.

battery day, is it hype or real good stuff?

lots of chance to sell the news

margin or options? Me say no

 

[lafrisbee]

No. If you can't stomach being range bound for the next 3 to 5 years, you've lost sight of the mission. Astronauts must be willing to be confined to a small cabin for 6 to 10 months if they ever expect to get to mars. Of course, you can move about in the cabin, but you must be content to remain in the cabin for as long as it takes.

Then TSLA will be the most watched and traded Stock to ever exist in any stock market. Why? Because the stock just went up 12% in one day, and then Down about the same amount over the next 2 days. I can't put the script together of what every class of trader or investor out there would do if those two parameters hold true. Staying in a 20% range but trading up and down 12% in a single day.

 

[woodisgood]

I think this type of discussion will become more front and center if Tesla does the obvious thing on Battery Day and makes it clear how big an opportunity the energy market is, and how their battery plans with the rest of their products gives them a clear path to capturing this opportunity.

Agree. I'm really looking forward to those discussions. It's difficult to conceptualize what exactly is possible and what the goals are/need to be. It's also very regional when considered globally.

Energy consumption (EVs) on the other hand is fairly straightforward to understand - replace all the ICE as quickly as possible.

 

[UncaNed]

We hit a low of 405? Where the hell was I?

Was having five times more shares supposed to increase volatility? What the hell going on here?

This market is NUTS!

You new here?

 

[lafrisbee]

So change the subject..Is the Tent bangin out Cybetrucks yet? Come on already

 

[ZsoZso]

View attachment 583532

Sir, YES, sir!!!

 

[ggr]

So do you think it could have been Tesla selling part of the 5 Billion in a 4-D chess move to f-up the MM's?

It could be, or some other large holder. I accuse no-one. It wasn't me ;-).

 

[jhm]

Then TSLA will be the most watched and traded Stock to ever exist in any stock market. Why? Because the stock just went up 12% in one day, and then Down about the same amount over the next 2 days. I can't put the script together of what every class of trader or investor out there would do if those two parameters hold true. Staying in a 20% range but trading up and down 12% in a single day.

For you, I expand the range to $50 to $500.

 

[vikings123]

The price action today is fascinating. This is my interpretation of what has happened so far.

Firstly, if you look at the shape of the TSLA and NASDAQ charts, they are very similar, but show clear evidence of what @Papafox calls "Dip on Steroids". That is, when the price is dropping, someone piles on to make the dip go down as fast and as far as possible, which is stupid behavior if you want to get the most out of selling lots of shares. But it isn't stupid if you're shorting the stock. It looks to me like they tried to halt this behavior before triggering the uptick rule.

Then something happened that was either really stupid, just coincidence, or really smart, depending on who did it. A minute of heavy selling triggered the uptick rule, and the stock immediately started climbing again. Coincidence is possible, it corresponds exactly to the same drop in the NASDAQ. If it was a short, it was stupid to trigger the uptick rule. If you are really sure that the S&P500 announcement is coming tonight, and you're long, it would make a lot of sense to dump some shares, trigger the rule, buy back, and watch the fireworks overnight.

TL;DR -- I have no idea. But the trading chart looks very different after 13:43EDT than before it.

Yes agreed if you look at the one minute chart you can see it went down to exactly 427.54(just a cent greater than a 10% drop), went back up and then it probably went out of control or they did not care about it anymore. If your theory is right we should see fireworks before market closes. And then even more after hours. But right now someone is accumulating.

455 is resistance and we need to break through with good volume.

 

[gabeincal]

Please do not get me wrong. It was a good buying opportunity. But, even with the drop, I'm pretty close to 95% in $TSLA. So, while I could go more in, as I don't have any dry powder left I only go for great or amazing opportunities.

My last purchase wasn't actually even a "good" buying opportunity. I just did a judgement call on using the last of my dry powder. So far it looks like I did alright with that, but of course it would've been even better if I'd used it during the COVID drop. Don't ask why I didn't, I really cannot explain it.

Because you shouldn’t try to time the market..?

 

[mikevbf]

So 500 news could really shake things more.

if not soon, might need to wait out share sale.

battery day, is it hype or real good stuff?

lots of chance to sell the news

margin or options? Me say no

The more "sure thing" you can bet on is Q3 P&D numbers, cash, and profit. Is it possible wall street is stupid enough not to see how much better these numbers will be without factory shut downs and with the further growth of Giga Shanghai and its accompanying healthy margins?

 

[Rockster]

I accumulated some more today at $420. The irony of that price wasn’t lost on me!

 

[H Mak]

A CNBC segement about Ford's plan to lay-off 1,400 workers.

But somehow half the segment was spent talking about Tesla's valuation and how they at CNBC don't understand it

I've noticed whenever there is a headline about an EV manufacturer it invariably begins "Tesla rival xxx.....". They can't help themselves. They have to bring Tesla into the story. It's particularly noticeable when reporting on the Chinese EV manufacturers. On the other hand when GM announces its results or any other news, the headline is never "Ford rival GM...."

In some ways it's irritating but looking at it the other way, maybe we should welcome it. Tesla has become the benchmark for electric vehicles, the gold standard. It's impossible to report any news about electric vehicles without a comparison to the leader of the pack.