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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Welp, starting to get the feeling the SP500 is just gonna wait another quarter
The theory goes, if they were not going to do it this qtr, they'd announce other changes and not have an extraordinarily long period of no changes.

If I were evil minded and on the committee, I'd probably announce an index change without Tesla, and the next day announce Tesla addition on a major drop.

That'd be one heck of a rollercoaster ride. Good thing I am not on the committee looking out for index funds.
 
Story time. This morning I helped my school with student electronics pickup. One of the other Dads had been asking me about Tesla so we were chatting. I also have a rattle in my dash that I had scheduled a mobile appointment to have fixed next week. I guess they had time so they wanted to change it to today. So, I had the tech come to the school parking lot. Everyone thought mobile service was amazing. The conversation then turned to Tesla/TSLA, and other stocks. One guy mentioned the FUD about Tesla not being profitable without credits, but as I explained he said he actually saw it as a positive. Having your competition pay you because they couldn't make their own clean cars.

After the tech wrapped up (didn't have the part unfortunately) I used smart summon to have the car come get me. It did a a perfect job at navigating the parking lot and moving around cars in a very smooth manner. Then I gave the other Dad a drive.

Elon, you are welcome for the free advertising. ;)


By using Tesla for years as clickbait they have inadvertently pushed the company into the public's consciousness.


That is similar to my workplace. To be clear I do not have a Tesla yet. However the more people at work go for test drives in other people's cars at work the more there seem to more and more of them in the parking lot. I actually found a nice used Model S for my boss online. I went with him to test drive it. He was sold and I can not wait to be able to get a Model Y myself. Probably going to be in a couple years when my wife's Odyssey lease ends. Everyone that rides in his car for the first time has a ginormous smile from the experience. I am not sure I have ever seen anything like the way Tesla's sell themselves.
 
$2,000 this year when FSD updates blows peoples minds. It just needs to be 90% there

I disagree. I think people intuitively understand the critical most difficult aspect is handling weird edge cases. Going from 50 miles between accidents/ interventions to 500k miles is where the struggle really begins.

Counterintuitively, it will actually get more dangerous as it improves. If it needs intervention once a week, people will pay super close attention. As that improves to once a year, intuition tells you no supervision is necessary.
 
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I found this page on the S&P site regarding methodology. Near the bottom are a bunch of spreadsheets, one of which is the rebalancing calendar for equity indexes. Here's a snapshot:

upload_2020-9-2_14-17-35.png


If I'm reading that right, the actual file with the new balances for the 9/18 rebalancing is sent to SPG's customers after the close on 9/4. I assume any related additions/removals would be announced at the same time.

Note that announcements related to the previous rebalancing (6/19) were made on 6/12, the date listed for the proforma file in that calendar. Note also that both the June and December windows are one week between proforma and effective dates, but the window for September is two weeks.
 
Yeah I'm not fine with Tesla doing 100+ billion in annual revenue while being valued between 250 and 450 billion

Seriously. Not sure how it could happen unless they basically started giving away the cars and solar panels and batteries. That’s the only way they could further the mission without lifting revenues significantly.

Either that or a fundamental re-evaluation in tech valuations, which I suppose is a possibility resulting from impending financial crisis.
 
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That is similar to my workplace. To be clear I do not have a Tesla yet. However the more people at work go for test drives in other people's cars at work the more there seem to more and more of them in the parking lot. I actually found a nice used Model S for my boss online. I went with him to test drive it. He was sold and I can not wait to be able to get a Model Y myself. Probably going to be in a couple years when my wife's Odyssey lease ends. Everyone that rides in his car for the first time has a ginormous smile from the experience. I am not sure I have ever seen anything like the way Tesla's sell themselves.
Great story! One thing about Teslas is they just get better and less expensive as time goes on, so it's probably worth the wait!

I was thinking this morning, it's really awesome to have the share price finally above 420, but also to have 5 times as many shares! Tesla or TSLA, I'm loving it! Plus having a great ongoing intelligent conversation with all of you! Great way to spend the quarantine!
 
The theory goes, if they were not going to do it this qtr, they'd announce other changes and not have an extraordinarily long period of no changes.

If I were evil minded and on the committee, I'd probably announce an index change without Tesla, and the next day announce Tesla addition on a major drop.

That'd be one heck of a rollercoaster ride. Good thing I am not on the committee looking out for index funds.

Interesting. But let's keep in mind that the objective of an S&P index fund is to track the index itself, not to beat it. Therefore, during the week or so between the announcement and actual inclusion of a stock in the index, a fund would prefer fairly stable price action while they accumulate shares. They may get that if there is a pop upward at the market opening after an announcement of a Tesla entry, and then relative calm the rest of the week. Such potential calmness could be herded by Tesla presenting its proposed follow-on offering of shares. I presume that may be a considerable part of the reason for yesterday's announcement of a potential offering.
 
I do hope you post when you finally sell. If I haven't sold at that point, that will likely be the bright blinking sign for me.

Well, I have yet to decide if I’m taking it all with me, if I’m going to spend every dime, or if I’m giving it all away.

At the current rate of growth, I don’t think anyone’s been buried with that many duffel bags of cash. That might be cool to do. I can be buried in a secret location like the great Pharaohs of Egypt, scatter clues to the four corners of The Universe, then archeologists and grave robbers can try and find the buried treasure. Of course I’ll totally plant false clues and maybe pick a burial location like under an outhouse.

And I’m not sure there’s ever going to be enough human beings I like or one human being I like well enough to leave the cash behind. There is always the cat, though.

This leaves me with the option to spend it all and honestly, it’s getting exhausting thinking up all the ways in which to spend it considering my life experience and aspirations; ie., I’m not trying to save the planet or build a colony on another planet. My interests are far more mundane; see above.
 
Counterintuitively, it will actually get more dangerous as it improves. If it needs intervention once a week, people will pay super close attention. As that improves to once a year, intuition tells you no supervision is necessary.

No, Full Self Driving can't "get more dangerous as it improves" because the human is responsible for driving until it is certified as safer than humans. What you meant to say is that humans could become more complacent if the driving aids are really good (but not yet perfect).

Do you know what's so great about those who win Darwin Awards? They help counteract the de-evolution of humankind. We can rest easy knowing that, on average, the driving aids are making the roads safer overall, even if a few people ignore the very obvious operating instructions. No matter how easy a car becomes to drive before FSD is approved - you can't fix stupid.
 
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