Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

Hey guys, The SP was about 450 when I left this morning to pick up my new MY, and I see it’s still around there after me driving around all afternoon on AP doing my best impression of the Geico pig.

Did I miss anything?

 

[StealthP3D]

Of course I’ll totally plant false clues and maybe pick a burial location like under an outhouse.

Please don't choose under an outhouse - this just shows you are not thinking clearly.

I mean, it's disgusting - a $TSLAQ member could uncover your body as they pick through the waste looking for old collectable bottles to scrounge up enough money to buy a little food or drink!

 

[Nocturnal]

I disagree. I think people intuitively understand the critical most difficult aspect is handling weird edge cases. Going from 50 miles between accidents/ interventions to 500k miles is where the struggle really begins.

Counterintuitively, it will actually get more dangerous as it improves. If it needs intervention once a week, people will pay super close attention. As that improves to once a year, intuition tells you no supervision is necessary.

Obviously it's all conjecture (and conjecture without numbers to boot) but it depends on what you mean by "dangerous". I'd argue that if FSD is at the point where interventions are only required once a year, that it will be saving far more lives than it could ever end. Of course that doesn't mean the perception among the public would be good, but that's a different discussion.

Interesting. But let's keep in mind that the objective of an S&P index fund is to track the index itself, not to beat it. Therefore, during the week or so between the announcement and actual inclusion of a stock in the index, a fund would prefer fairly stable price action while they accumulate shares. They may get that if there is a pop upward at the market opening after an announcement of a Tesla entry, and then relative calm the rest of the week. Such potential calmness could be herded by Tesla presenting its proposed follow-on offering of shares. I presume that may be a considerable part of the reason for yesterday's announcement of a potential offering.

I agree. I don't see truly passive funds going through sneaky shenanigans to increase profits which also increases risk. Vanguard won't get more index business if their SP500 fund gains .1% more in returns for the month, but might have issues if they screw up and cause .1% lower returns from not following the index.

 

[CLK350]

Gary Black on the Tesla 8K 5B filing and S&P inclusion
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1300803729692688384

 

[mblakele]

And I’m not sure there’s ever going to be enough human beings I like or one human being I like well enough to leave the cash behind. There is always the cat, though.

Indeed, there’s always the cat. But considering the impact sudden wealth often has on people... have you considered leaving yours to someone you despise?

 

[S3XY]

That video was, I am sure, valueable to some; to those of us who are color-blind and unable to distinguish the red cars from the green cars, it was useless.

I just picture myself in a red car screaming and cursing for those *@^$!%! green cars to get out of the way.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not that obtuse.

I’ll have to take your word for it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Color me a conspiracy theorists......but you don't orchestrate the type of sell off we saw today unless you're sure there won't be inclusion announcement today

Luckily I could care less of the stock action. I'm not buying nor selling so blah who cares

 

[Nocturnal]

One more comment on the raise. Bullish AF. If the company had any doubts about cash flow or the SP tanking they would issue at prices now instead of risking a less attractive raise down the road.

 

[Curt Renz]

Color me a conspiracy theorists......but you don't orchestrate the type of sell off we saw today unless you're sure there won't be inclusion announcement today

Luckily I could care less of the stock action. I'm not buying nor selling so blah who cares

 

[MD70]

Anecdote time, I have heard about kids being interested in Tesla and today I heard one example firsthand.
My wife is a social worker and has started working with an 8 year old autistic child, his mother told my wife “he is into cars and knows so much about them. Once he said when he is older he will get a good job so he can buy a Tesla, we didn’t even know what a Tesla was”
For context I live in Northern England and have seen a handful of Tesla’s on the road. However it happened the next generation is already sold on the cars.

 

[The Martian]

I found this page on the S&P site regarding methodology. Near the bottom are a bunch of spreadsheets, one of which is the rebalancing calendar for equity indexes. Here's a snapshot:

View attachment 583673

If I'm reading that right, the actual file with the new balances for the 9/18 rebalancing is sent to SPG's customers after the close on 9/4. I assume any related additions/removals would be announced at the same time.

Note that announcements related to the previous rebalancing (6/19) were made on 6/12, the date listed for the proforma file in that calendar. Note also that both the June and December windows are one week between proforma and effective dates, but the window for September is two weeks.

Great found. If you look at the last year's schedule, the September rebalancing is also the only quarter that gives 2 weeks notice. I guess we'll know one way or another after closing this Friday.

 

[Unpilot]

TSLA is put in the spoon...I ain't selling.
MM drive the stock up/down/sidways...I ain't selling.

I might sell a few for some mountain expedition stuff...and maybe a few for some recon gear.

But mostly I ain't selling.

So the manipulative bastages can go pound sand.

Did I mention I ain't selling.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I found this page on the S&P site regarding methodology. Near the bottom are a bunch of spreadsheets, one of which is the rebalancing calendar for equity indexes. Here's a snapshot:

View attachment 583673

If I'm reading that right, the actual file with the new balances for the 9/18 rebalancing is sent to SPG's customers after the close on 9/4. I assume any related additions/removals would be announced at the same time.

Note that announcements related to the previous rebalancing (6/19) were made on 6/12, the date listed for the proforma file in that calendar. Note also that both the June and December windows are one week between proforma and effective dates, but the window for September is two weeks.

Wow, you are getting a lot of informative so people are seeing this but this is huge. Needs to be talked about.

Is there any other way to read this then that we will know the day after tomorrow after close (presumably at 5.15 eastern) if S&P will happen for the foreseeable future?

If Tesla is not included in the document sent tomorrow they won't be before 9/18 guaranteed and can anyone really argue that it'll be likely to happen for another quarter then?

EDIT: It's already Sept 3 here so I wrote tomorrow originally. Obviously mean Friday evening.

 

[Curt Renz]

EDIT: Let's not be surprised if the the bond rating agencies soon upgrade their opinions of Tesla bonds.

WSJ - hour ago: After Stock Split, Tesla’s Share-Sale Plans Boost Bonds.

Excerpt:

The latest beneficiaries of Tesla Inc .'s surging shares: bondholders.

Prices for Tesla's traditional bond due in 2025 reached a record 104.36 cents on the dollar Tuesday, according to MarketAxess, after the electric-car maker said it would sell up to $5 billion in stock , bolstering its balance sheet after a 5-for-1 stock split Monday.

That marks a rebound from lows around 79 cents during the worst of the pandemic's market turmoil and the latest big swing in the company's bond prices. Since snapping up the company's first conventional bond offering in 2017 , investors have questioned where Tesla would get the money to repay debt as it burned cash and struggled to turn a profit. In 2018, the bonds were near 85 cents on the dollar following a ratings downgrade and stock price declines.

 

[Stretch2727]

TSLA is put in the spoon...I ain't selling.
MM drive the stock up/down/sidways...I ain't selling.

I might sell a few for some mountain expedition stuff...and maybe a few for some recon gear.

But mostly I ain't selling.

So the manipulative bastages can go pound sand.

Did I mention I ain't selling.

You need to remove the "sell order in at $3999" under your profile pic. This was pre-split, so maybe after the split it is just right?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anecdote time, I have heard about kids being interested in Tesla and today I heard one example firsthand.
My wife is a social worker and has started working with an 8 year old autistic child, his mother told my wife “he is into cars and knows so much about them. Once he said when he is older he will get a good job so he can buy a Tesla, we didn’t even know what a Tesla was”
For context I live in Northern England and have seen a handful of Tesla’s on the road. However it happened the next generation is already sold on the cars.

Boomers get mad that Apple is worth $2 trillion but they don't know that Zoomers literally use the color of the chat bubble to determine if the other person is worth talking to or not. Same idea. The next generation is owned by Apple, and they are owned by Tesla.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I had paper losses of more than the new girl here cost today (more like a MX), but I’m ecstatic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Thu, Mar 19, 2020 is out.

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting was 5.84% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 126th Percentile (highly unlikely to occur by chance).

View attachment 523505

Today, the SP was up 18% with capping (-7%) late in the session. It appears that Market Makers abide by the SEC rules at their own discretion.

BREAKING:

Tesla Operational Update - Fremont / Buffalo plant shutdowns to begin end-of-day Mar 23). Operations at others facilities will continue, including Nevada.

As of 17:30 hrs in After-hrs trading, the SP was down 9.25% so we'll likely see the Uptick Rule invoked yet again tomorrow for a record consecutive 7th day.

#SEC #BROKENRECORD

FINRA Short Selling Report for Wed, Sep 02, 2020

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting was 7.23% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 90th Percentile (very unlikely to occur by chance).

Note in the table below that last week had historically low levels of Naked Shorting: Avg was 0.63% for the week

The SP was down -14.7% intraday today after triggering the 'Uptick Rule'. Market Makers and Hedge Funds routinely flaunt SEC rules by exploiting their exemption to naked short selling for Options market makers (SEC Regulation SHO).

Especially note that today's level of naked short selling was predicted in advance due to the mechanism of Options Market Makers being used by Hedge Funds to exploit Regulation SHO to manipulate TSLA's share price.

Certain members of this forum seem unaware that the value of a theory is in its ability to predict events. Today's FINRA data strengthens the theory that Naked Short Selling is being used to manipulate TSLA.

This is NOT new. It has been discussed on this forum for years. It is just now that certain members are beginning to understand these mechanisms and take the issue seriously. THIS MATTERS. Over $25B of Shareholder value was extracted from the Market today by Hedge Funds via exploiting SEC Regulation SHO.

Prediction for tomorrow: Thu Sep 03, 2020

• With 'Uptick Rule' in effect, Naked Short Selling will be in the 7-9% range as reported by FINRA
• the Report Data at this link will become available tomorrow after 3:30 PM EDT, Sep 03, 2020

#SEC #BROKENREGSHO

 

[electrichapp]

with stock split, was finally able to sell covered call to earn some "income" for this "no catalyst" week.
will NOT be doing it next week.

Well, I have yet to decide if I’m taking it all with me, if I’m going to spend every dime, or if I’m giving it all away.

At the current rate of growth, I don’t think anyone’s been buried with that many duffel bags of cash. That might be cool to do. I can be buried in a secret location like the great Pharaohs of Egypt, scatter clues to the four corners of The Universe, then archeologists and grave robbers can try and find the buried treasure. Of course I’ll totally plant false clues and maybe pick a burial location like under an outhouse.

And I’m not sure there’s ever going to be enough human beings I like or one human being I like well enough to leave the cash behind. There is always the cat, though.

This leaves me with the option to spend it all and honestly, it’s getting exhausting thinking up all the ways in which to spend it considering my life experience and aspirations; ie., I’m not trying to save the planet or build a colony on another planet. My interests are far more mundane; see above.

My suggestion for spending:
ROADSTER 2
CYBERTRUCK
TRIP TO MOON