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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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All Europe Numbers should be forwarded to GJ ;)

4 ships already reached EU. 1 on it's way.
The 12th ship for this quarter is not labeled yet.(+says EU, but port not assigned)

Oh, so the bears are pounding the soft market thesis while the ships roll in. We've seen this before, right before... wait for it...

The Surprise!!! (facts)

But also preceded by inflated numbers to try to make Tesla appear to miss. What a freakin game.

Only question today is... should I buy more?
 
I just skimmed the prospectus for the Schwab S&P 500 Index fund SWPPX and found something interesting (underlined in bold):

To pursue its goal, the fund generally invests in stocks that are included in the S&P 500 Index†. It is the fund’s policy that under normal circumstances it will invest at least 80% of its net assets (including, for this purpose, any borrowings for investment purposes) in these stocks; typically, the actual percentage is considerably higher. The fund will notify its shareholders at least 60 days before changing this policy.

The fund generally will seek to replicate the performance of the index by giving the same weight to a given stock as the index does. However, when the investment adviser believes it is in the best interest of the fund, such as to avoid purchasing odd-lots (i.e., purchasing less than the usual number of shares traded for a security), for tax considerations, or to address liquidity considerations with respect to a stock, the investment adviser may cause the fund’s weighting of a stock to be more or less than the index’s weighting of the stock. The fund may sell securities that are represented in the index in anticipation of their removal from the index, or buy securities that are not yet represented in the index in anticipation of their addition to the index.

The S&P 500 Index includes the stocks of 500 leading U.S. publicly traded companies from a broad range of industries. Standard & Poor’s, the company that maintains the index, uses a variety of measures to determine which stocks are listed in the index. Each stock is represented in the index in proportion to its market capitalization.

The fund may invest in derivatives, principally futures contracts, and lend its securities to minimize the gap in performance that naturally exists between any index fund and its corresponding index. This gap occurs mainly because, unlike the index, the fund incurs expenses and must keep a small portion of its assets in cash for business operations. By using futures, the fund potentially can offset a portion of the gap attributable to its cash holdings. In addition, any income realized through securities lending may help reduce the portion of the gap attributable to expenses.

The fund may concentrate its investments in an industry or group of industries to the extent that the index the fund is designed to track is also so concentrated.

Tracking Error Risk. As an index fund, the fund seeks to track the performance of the index, although it may not be successful in doing so. The divergence between the performance of the fund and the index, positive or negative, is called “tracking error.” Tracking error can be caused by many factors and it may be significant. For example, the fund may not invest in certain securities in the index, match the securities’ weighting to the index, or the fund may invest in securities not in the index, due to regulatory, operational, custodial or liquidity constraints; corporate transactions; asset valuations; transaction costs and timing; tax considerations; and index rebalancing, which may result in tracking error. The fund may attempt to offset the effects of not being invested in certain index securities by making substitute investments, but these efforts may not be successful. In addition, cash flows into and out of the fund, operating expenses and trading costs all affect the ability of the fund to match the performance of the index, because the index does not have to manage cash flows and does not incur any costs.
They do not define what "anticipation" means. Also noted that they "lend out" shares to shorts! :mad:
 
Through August Model 3 is still the top selling BEV in Sweden.

SE.jpg


EV Sales: Sweden August 2020
 
Why did stories about EV being fire dangers go away?

It has little to do with protecting other EVs. It's that a quick look at the actual fire statistics show that Teslas are 8-10 times less likely to catch on fire per mile driven vs all cars on the road. It highlights just how dangerous it is to have an entire tank full of combustible liquid contained by only a thin sheet of stamped metal.

Actually I think it’s because Tesla’s stopped burning, and I think it’s because Tesla’s became more abundant — in that people have become accustomed to seeing them, so if they breakdown/catch fire; it’s just another vehicle not working on the side of the road. Been there, done that.

The first fire if I recall correctly was the white S that drove over a cement curb and into a tree at 100mph. I think the driver got out and then tried to out run authorities on foot.

The second fire, which happened very shortly after was the S that hit something on a highway. Car told the driver to pull over and after the driver had gotten out the car started on fire.

I might have those incidents reversed. But both happened very close in time and it was very early in S history.

The highway incident resulted in the first not-a-recall recall and also adjustable suspension height in S’s to be suspended — and talk about a bunch of mad people having a feature temporarily taken away.

Tesla also reacted by installing the titanium shields on all cars free of charge, which btw caused Mr. Mark on the toilet Spiegel to flog the warrantee costs will bankrupt Tesla narrative — also picked up by Mr. Montana and a few others.

So back to my point. Since the two fires that started a SP plummet, there’s not been a lot of other Tesla fires. I can think of 5/6 more that hit the media — the stolen S that split in half in LA after a high speed chase, the S in China that started another owner’s are mad and still mad fiasco, an S in Norway or similar locale at a Supercharger, another S in the US on the side of a road that’s fire was made worse by the fire department breaking through the car’s firewall — that video we got to see how Tesla engineered the car for venting fire. There are others but not that many in the scheme of things.

In the meantime, though, Tesla vehicle numbers have grown rapidly but the total number of fires per vehicle has actually declined. Very few Tesla’s catch on fire, that’s just a fact. There’s just nothing to talk about on that front any longer, so the goalposts get moved.
 
I just skimmed the prospectus for the Schwab S&P 500 Index fund SWPPX and found something interesting (underlined in bold):

To pursue its goal, the fund generally invests in stocks that are included in the S&P 500 Index†. It is the fund’s policy that under normal circumstances it will invest at least 80% of its net assets (including, for this purpose, any borrowings for investment purposes) in these stocks; typically, the actual percentage is considerably higher. The fund will notify its shareholders at least 60 days before changing this policy.

The fund generally will seek to replicate the performance of the index by giving the same weight to a given stock as the index does. However, when the investment adviser believes it is in the best interest of the fund, such as to avoid purchasing odd-lots (i.e., purchasing less than the usual number of shares traded for a security), for tax considerations, or to address liquidity considerations with respect to a stock, the investment adviser may cause the fund’s weighting of a stock to be more or less than the index’s weighting of the stock. The fund may sell securities that are represented in the index in anticipation of their removal from the index, or buy securities that are not yet represented in the index in anticipation of their addition to the index.

The S&P 500 Index includes the stocks of 500 leading U.S. publicly traded companies from a broad range of industries. Standard & Poor’s, the company that maintains the index, uses a variety of measures to determine which stocks are listed in the index. Each stock is represented in the index in proportion to its market capitalization.

The fund may invest in derivatives, principally futures contracts, and lend its securities to minimize the gap in performance that naturally exists between any index fund and its corresponding index. This gap occurs mainly because, unlike the index, the fund incurs expenses and must keep a small portion of its assets in cash for business operations. By using futures, the fund potentially can offset a portion of the gap attributable to its cash holdings. In addition, any income realized through securities lending may help reduce the portion of the gap attributable to expenses.

The fund may concentrate its investments in an industry or group of industries to the extent that the index the fund is designed to track is also so concentrated.

Tracking Error Risk. As an index fund, the fund seeks to track the performance of the index, although it may not be successful in doing so. The divergence between the performance of the fund and the index, positive or negative, is called “tracking error.” Tracking error can be caused by many factors and it may be significant. For example, the fund may not invest in certain securities in the index, match the securities’ weighting to the index, or the fund may invest in securities not in the index, due to regulatory, operational, custodial or liquidity constraints; corporate transactions; asset valuations; transaction costs and timing; tax considerations; and index rebalancing, which may result in tracking error. The fund may attempt to offset the effects of not being invested in certain index securities by making substitute investments, but these efforts may not be successful. In addition, cash flows into and out of the fund, operating expenses and trading costs all affect the ability of the fund to match the performance of the index, because the index does not have to manage cash flows and does not incur any costs.
They do not define what "anticipation" means. Also noted that they "lend out" shares to shorts!

Does this change our view such that the run up of the last few weeks may have been from index funds preloading? And therefore, not to expect another squeeze?
 
I just skimmed the prospectus for the Schwab S&P 500 Index fund SWPPX and found something interesting (underlined in bold):

To pursue its goal, the fund generally invests in stocks that are included in the S&P 500 Index†. It is the fund’s policy that under normal circumstances it will invest at least 80% of its net assets (including, for this purpose, any borrowings for investment purposes) in these stocks; typically, the actual percentage is considerably higher. The fund will notify its shareholders at least 60 days before changing this policy.

The fund generally will seek to replicate the performance of the index by giving the same weight to a given stock as the index does. However, when the investment adviser believes it is in the best interest of the fund, such as to avoid purchasing odd-lots (i.e., purchasing less than the usual number of shares traded for a security), for tax considerations, or to address liquidity considerations with respect to a stock, the investment adviser may cause the fund’s weighting of a stock to be more or less than the index’s weighting of the stock. The fund may sell securities that are represented in the index in anticipation of their removal from the index, or buy securities that are not yet represented in the index in anticipation of their addition to the index.

The S&P 500 Index includes the stocks of 500 leading U.S. publicly traded companies from a broad range of industries. Standard & Poor’s, the company that maintains the index, uses a variety of measures to determine which stocks are listed in the index. Each stock is represented in the index in proportion to its market capitalization.

The fund may invest in derivatives, principally futures contracts, and lend its securities to minimize the gap in performance that naturally exists between any index fund and its corresponding index. This gap occurs mainly because, unlike the index, the fund incurs expenses and must keep a small portion of its assets in cash for business operations. By using futures, the fund potentially can offset a portion of the gap attributable to its cash holdings. In addition, any income realized through securities lending may help reduce the portion of the gap attributable to expenses.

The fund may concentrate its investments in an industry or group of industries to the extent that the index the fund is designed to track is also so concentrated.

Tracking Error Risk. As an index fund, the fund seeks to track the performance of the index, although it may not be successful in doing so. The divergence between the performance of the fund and the index, positive or negative, is called “tracking error.” Tracking error can be caused by many factors and it may be significant. For example, the fund may not invest in certain securities in the index, match the securities’ weighting to the index, or the fund may invest in securities not in the index, due to regulatory, operational, custodial or liquidity constraints; corporate transactions; asset valuations; transaction costs and timing; tax considerations; and index rebalancing, which may result in tracking error. The fund may attempt to offset the effects of not being invested in certain index securities by making substitute investments, but these efforts may not be successful. In addition, cash flows into and out of the fund, operating expenses and trading costs all affect the ability of the fund to match the performance of the index, because the index does not have to manage cash flows and does not incur any costs.
They do not define what "anticipation" means. Also noted that they "lend out" shares to shorts! :mad:
To me, "anticipation" is after S&P announcement of what will be added and what will be subtracted or else the fund will be guessing, especially which will be subtracted.
 
Near the close, I did some tax-loss harvesting in our taxable accounts selling all long-term losers (like GE! :oops:) to help offset some of the large taxable gain generated by my fortunate TSLA Roth IRA Conversion on 1/2/2020 at $86.05 post-split. Also bought some of these "cheap" :rolleyes: post-split shares in the Roth accounts that had cash balances of less than one pre-split share. Now our Roths are fully locked-and-loaded TSLA baby.

Added-on in the $402's and $403's (except for the one souvenir share @ $420.69 earlier today). Always feels good to take more shares out of circulation from the shorts, algorithms, and day traders!

I'm betting on S&P 500 inclusion announcement tomorrow after the close.

Looks like aftermarket players are fighting over $400 right now. What is "max pain"?

Update: Thanks for reporting bits and pieces of Rob's "interview" with GJ. Now I don't have to watch it. Instead, I'll play Fortnite - it's a better use of my time! :D (and I'm close to Champions League now)

You actually had me considering another buy today in AH. I think it was Engineered to $400, but I'm not following the macro... so I need more data first. Maybe I'll set a buy at $385. These sales don't last from my own experience. This is popcorn at the 1.9 minute mark.
 
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I admire Rob for staying so calm and disarm Johnson in spite of getting shouted down all the time. I was worried GJ was getting a heart attack. It was literally making me nervous to listen to that. Clearly he was fighting for his existence while Rob knows the numbers better and throws in a number here and there that completely prove GJ's arguments wrong. Nobody listening to this discussion can say that Rob is wrong and GJ has a point. He was clearly panicking. Rob has won the debate 100 %. Good for us. I feel vindicated why my account is bursting at the seams right now (stock price correction and all).
I love Rob! but he did not win. He is to open minded and polite. I watched every second and it was painful... In the end whatshisface was grandstanding and picking out his next TV personality opponent so he could get more fame... Rob said maybe they could make that happen ;( ouch. Still love Rob.
 
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Just browsing through the latest S&P Dow Jones Indices document that just dropped - some changes related to methodologies. It confirms the next rebalancing.

"These changes will be implemented in conjunction with the next rebalancing, which takes effect prior to the market open on Monday, September 21, 2020."

Although there is mention of Dow Jones, I ASSume this is related to inclusion announcements as well. Not particularly knowledgeable on S&P so this should be consider weakly interesting.