Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Giga Berlin will have 8 of the huge "giga press" machines. Tesla Giga Berlin to Have 8 Giga Presses for Next-Level Manufacturing

Supposed max production of Giga Berlin will be 2 million per year. Tesla Gigafactory Berlin to produce up to 2M vehicles per year: German report

I think people are sleeping on Berlin. It's a much bigger deal than Elon and Tesla are letting on. Remember, Sandy Munro says Tesla "lies" by purposely understating things (except autopilot, of course).

I agree that Giga Berlin is a much bigger deal and underappreciated in its planned output.

The preliminary early posted water supply did ask for 750k p.a. and later 1Mio vehicles p.a.. Thats official but phase 2 and phase 3.

In the Brandenburg parliament, Tesla presented 500k p.a. (see below video) to start with the Model Y but confirmed a few times that is just the start. I expect 1 Mio p.a. over the first years and expansion beyond later. The property is large enough.

 

[smorgasbord]

Guys, don't hold your breath. It will come at a random time and during some random quarter. FB's announcement was 3qs after they qualified. Amazons was a full quarter after they qualified. I

Not according to this contemporaneous Reuters article (Dated 11Dec2013):

Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday said Facebook Inc will join its S&P 500 stock index after the close of trading on December 20, cementing the social media network’s rise into one of the biggest, most powerful U.S. companies. The decision follows Facebook reporting its fourth straight profitable quarter in October, one of the criteria that S&P uses to determine eligibility for the index.

Question regarding a speculation in here - something I have wondered as well
Can S&P500 transition in TSLA slowly over a period to time to avoid the sudden run up/spike in share price?

Following is a quote from the article:
"Option #2, S&P scales the entry in, say 10bps a month or quarter. To us, this is the MOST likely solution. The index funds don’t swallow Tesla in one bite but a dozen nibbles over 12-24 months."

I personally think 12-24 months is too long of a transitioning in period, but can imagine a scenario where TSLA is phased in over say a 3 month period - effectively allowing the index funds 3 months vs. a few days to buy the stock. This would prevent the sudden spiking, which in the long term won't be healthy for anyone.

Edit: Looks like @StarFoxisDown! has very similar question as well. I am thinking more about where they phase it in systematically - say 25% inclusion Sept 21 into the index, followed by 25% each over Oct, Nov, Dec. By Dec rebalancing, it is completely included in the index.

Edit 2: In this case, the 5B equity offering would also make sense, as you are only trying to manage 25% of the buying pressure at a time. It can be used more effectively as a buffer to prevent MM or other big sharks in manipulating market to reduce float and spike the price.

The short answer is that the Committee can do anything they want. Yes, they have a written set of rules, but they also get to make the rules or change the rules at any time and the same Committee that decides who gets in writes the rules. Historically speaking, they have created rules that change whether companies will be added or not, but made those rules not retro-active so as not to kick out any existing companies (eg, dual stock voting tiers keeping SNAP out but leaving Alphabet in).

 

[MABMAB]

VW in trouble ahead of GigaBerlin steamrolling the German market.

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1303037790020538368?s=19

The principal thing I care about as an investor is battery production.
I hope battery day sheds some light on how they will make more batteries.
If they do not shed light, I hope the execute and make more batteries.
It is the near bout the ONLY thing I worry about

 

[Mo City]

The principal thing I care about as an investor is battery production.
I hope battery day sheds some light on how they will make more batteries.
If they do not shed light, I hope the execute and make more batteries.
It is the near bout the ONLY thing I worry about

The two biggest issues facing Tesla going forward are increasing battery production and lowering costs. It's pretty close to 100% both will be addressed during Battery Day. Density (which is related) sits right behind those two.

 

[dakh]

Guys, don't hold your breath. It will come at a random time and during some random quarter. FB's announcement was 3qs after they qualified. Amazons was a full quarter after they qualified. I

This makes sense. Committee is interested in returns for the funds using their index. No point in being deterministic about when inclusions happen, this guarantees everyone front-running and making index returns lower. The only thing that they can control is timing, so making the inclusion happen within a fairly wide time frame will weed out at least some speculators and improve entry prices. I don't see them NOT doing what they're doing, it's their job to look after their client's returns.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Stop the snake jazz and Polynesian music literally has nothing to do with s&p.

The capital raise does raise questions tho.

Yes, such as, "Just how many gigafactories can Tesla build at one time?"

 

[MABMAB]

I am not worried about density. Incremental or drastic improvement expected over time as demonstrated by TSLA. The question remains, can they make sufficient batteries to capture larger marketshare whilst keeping up with solar walls and megapacks, bring big truck to market.

They teased a while back that they might get into mining, I would welcome that though cant help but think of Fords rubber planations.

 

[kanweg]

I am not worried about density. Incremental or drastic improvement expected over time as demonstrated by TSLA. The question remains, can they make sufficient batteries to capture larger marketshare whilst keeping up with solar walls and megapacks, bring big truck to market.

They teased a while back that they might get into mining, I would welcome that though cant help but think of Fords rubber planations.

kodak had its own cows (for gelatin), if I’m not mistaken.

wait, perhaps not a good example

 

[traxila]

kodak had its own cows (for gelatin), if I’m not mistaken.

wait, perhaps not a good example

If they had gone ahead with the digital cows it would have worked out great!

 

[generalenthu]

Gamma squeeze: To what degree is TSLA affected?

There has been a lot of talk on high volume OTM call buying leading to share price gains.
Whether it the influence of call buying by retail is more of was buying by institutions more is a different question.

The volume of options, at least the numbers quoted (if true) imply this theory as credible.
From what I read, TSLA if anything has more vulnerability to Gamma squeeze.

How much of this do you guys think contributed to the TSLA price gain in the last couple of months?
If significant, I see a significant downside risk.
I do think upcoming events can help mitigate a significant downside risk.
But if the unwinding of this Gamma Squeeze happens across tech stocks, I would think TSLA would get significantly impacted not withstanding the upcoming positive events.

@FrankSG @generalenthu @dl003 @StealthP3D Tagging you guys based on my perception of your knowledge on this from your earlier comments on this thread

Edit: I would add that, the Gamma Squeeze impacting share price movement up can also be seen from an organic growth point of view.
In other words, one can say, retail started buying TSLA options once they started seeing the strong growth potential of TSLA since Q3, Q4 2019. More retails coming in, perhaps coinciding with more retail getting into options in general (how true?) amplifies the call buying and thus Gamma squeeze.
Prior to Q3, Q4 the call buying (and buying common) wasn't significant enough to cause the squeeze.

I have read a few articles from Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, etc, and also looked at some numbers from zero hedge (I discount their conspiratorial opinion, but their data is not normally published elsewhere)

The key theme in several of these is that SoftBank / Masayoshi Son have cornered the market for large cap tech names using options and have caused a gamma squeeze. The numbers are laughably small though. 4B in options premium spread across multiple large cap names doesn't get you much, definitely not enough to cause a squeeze.

More pertinently, the proportion of Tesla's float supporting the options open interest while very high, hasn't gone significantly higher despite the rise in price. And a lot this is of the very deep in the money variety.

I think a lot more weight has to be put in the fact that rates are very close to zero and this is not changing anytime soon. there's no place for money to go except these large cap names, if you don't want to buy the old economy stuff.

So, while the large cap tech names will continue to be volatile, I do not think there's going to be major reversal of the gains made this year. Tesla is relatively in a significantly better spot, with all the catalysts everyone here knows. There may be a TSLA bubble down the line, but we're not in one right now. A lot of this is supported by fundamentals if you just look out a year or 2. If we do see a triple or more from here in the next 12 months, we can declare it a bubble in my opinion.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

David Lee talks about QuantumScape's impact for Tesla investors.

He also mentions that he will be doing future video on Tesla co-founder JB Straubel's involvement as a QuantumScape Board member.

I was watching this thinking about Elon's weekend bro-date with VW chairman Deiss. Wonder if Elon is telling his Volks-bro to keep pursuing Solid State, or not.

Great to have some big name interest - other than Tesla - seriously pursuing battery tech (finally)- but I don't like that their production timeline is 2024.

Can't wait for battery day.

 

[dl003]

David Lee talks about QuantumScape's impact for Tesla investors.

He also mentions that he will be doing future video on Tesla co-founder JB Straubel's involvement as a QuantumScape Board member.

I was watching this thinking about Elon's weekend bro-date with VW chairman Deiss. Wonder if Elon is telling his Volks-bro to keep pursuing Solid State, or not.

Great to have some big name interest - other than Tesla - seriously pursuing battery tech (finally)- but I don't like that their production timeline is 2024.

Can't wait for battery day.

The problem I see with these start-ups is the same problem faced by autonomy start-ups: lack of real world feedback. While TSLA already has a million cars and is going to have millions more on the road, providing data to help its engineer optimize the hardware-software stacks, these are just little labs trying to come up with a formula that is not going to be tested en masses and commercialized. As promising as the media will try to make their products appear to be, they will move very slowly.

 

[PeterJA]

Panasonic exec confirms Tesla Gigafactory 1 expansion and timeline

Speaking of broken promises, that article says Panasonic will "excitedly" expand GF1 cell production by 10% from the current 35 GWh/year. But only 8 months ago, Panasonic reportedly talked of expanding to 54 GWh, or over 50%.

“For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the knowhow to do it in quite a high volume environment,”
Panasonic: Increasing Battery Output To 54 GWh At Tesla GF1 Is Possible​

Fortunately Tesla has other ways to get more cells, which we should hear about in two weeks.

 

[azaz]

Futures open up with NASDAQ leading the way up .63% as of this

 

[Thekiwi]

Giga Berlin will have 8 of the huge "giga press" machines. Tesla Giga Berlin to Have 8 Giga Presses for Next-Level Manufacturing

Supposed max production of Giga Berlin will be 2 million per year. Tesla Gigafactory Berlin to produce up to 2M vehicles per year: German report

I think people are sleeping on Berlin. It's a much bigger deal than Elon and Tesla are letting on. Remember, Sandy Munro says Tesla "lies" by purposely understating things (except autopilot, of course).

Tesla is already valued at ~$400 Billion, I don't think anyone is "sleeping on Berlin". It's going to take many millions of cars shipped annually to justify the current valuation, and that is what everyone holding the stock expects already. In fact I think end game expectations are for more than 2 million cars to be sold in Europe annually by decade end, so Tesla is going to need more than the currently stated Berlin capacity eventually.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla is already valued at ~$400 Billion, I don't think anyone is "sleeping on Berlin". It's going to take many millions of cars shipped annually to justify the current valuation, and that is what everyone holding the stock expects already. In fact I think end game expectations are for more than 2 million cars to be sold in Europe annually by decade end, so Tesla is going to need more than the currently stated Berlin capacity eventually.

Cars? No one makes real money selling cars. This is an energy company.

 

[Thekiwi]

Speaking of broken promises, that article says Panasonic will "excitedly" expand GF1 cell production by 10% from the current 35 GWh/year. But only 8 months ago, Panasonic reportedly talked of expanding to 54 GWh, or over 50%.

“For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the knowhow to do it in quite a high volume environment,”
Panasonic: Increasing Battery Output To 54 GWh At Tesla GF1 Is Possible​

Fortunately Tesla has other ways to get more cells, which we should hear about in two weeks.

"Panasonic is supercharging its efforts at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 with a major expansion of its operations, including investment in new infrastructure for making higher-capacity batteries with lower costs."

Basically sounds like they will be implementing the tech Tesla will reveal to the world on battery day.

I know it doesn't appear to have been stated anywhere, but to me it seems like the Nevada plant will not be supplying batteries to any new Tesla car factories, and will only supply Fremont and the Energy business going forward, and so won't be growing that much larger. Shanghai, Berlin & Austin will all have on site battery production or other suppliers.

 

[Thekiwi]

ARK Invest - today - ARK Disrupt 09.07.2020

Excerpt:

Is Tesla on Pace to Ramp Production Faster Than Ford Scaled the Model T?

By Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Analyst

Produced on the first moving assembly line in 1908, the Ford Model T is famous for the speed at which it scaled. Interestingly, in its first nine years of production, Tesla has ramped at the same pace as the Model T, as shown below. After learning lessons in “production hell”, Tesla now is preparing to ramp production even faster than Ford scaled the Model T, also shown below.

In China, Tesla broke ground for Model 3 production and hit a 200,000 annual run rate in just a year and a half, increasing its capacity by 33% to an annual run rate of roughly 800,000 in year 10, as shown by the gray bar above. Now with plenty of capital, Tesla has construction projects underway in both China and Berlin which, in only a year and a half, could add another 50%, or 400,000 units, to capacity.

Would be great to see a chart like this which included the other large auto makers as well.

 

[Mo City]

Cars? No one makes real money selling cars. This is an energy company.

Speaking of sleeping, the market is in a coma about Tesla and energy. I'm not aware of anyone giving it any value currently. Elon says it will become equal to the auto business. If true, I assume the energy business will explode in 2021 or 2022 and TSLA's valuation will be affected accordingly.

 

[Mo City]

Tesla is already valued at ~$400 Billion, I don't think anyone is "sleeping on Berlin". It's going to take many millions of cars shipped annually to justify the current valuation, and that is what everyone holding the stock expects already. In fact I think end game expectations are for more than 2 million cars to be sold in Europe annually by decade end, so Tesla is going to need more than the currently stated Berlin capacity eventually.

By 2030, most believe there will be a 2nd GF in Europe to achieve 2 million annually. I expect that for Giga Berlin by itself several years prior to 2030.

Annual production forecasts to 2025 for Tesla by everyone except Ark are very conservative. So, yes, Giga Berlin is currently being underestimated. When it's cranking out 2 mill Model Y/3/2 per year by 2026, I'll remind you of this conversation.

BTW, I love your country.