Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Interesting share price action on new entries to S&P Midcap 400:
Etsy ETSY closed in regular session Friday at -3.58% and was up AH by +5.7% (up just over 2% for the day).
Teradyne TER closed in regular session Friday at -4.06% and was up AH by +1.72% (still down over 2% for the day).
Catalent CTLT closed in regular session Friday at -2.84% and was up AH by +1.23% (still down over 1.5% for the day).

SPoon inclusion is not what it's all cracked up to be.

 

[Singuy]

Interesting share price action on new entries to S&P Midcap 400:
Etsy ETSY closed in regular session Friday at -3.58% and was up AH by +5.7% (up just over 2% for the day).
Teradyne TER closed in regular session Friday at -4.06% and was up AH by +1.72% (still down over 2% for the day).
Catalent CTLT closed in regular session Friday at -2.84% and was up AH by +1.23% (still down over 1.5% for the day).

SPoon inclusion is not what it's all cracked up to be.

Small market cap companies will not have the monumental amount of shares needed to be purchased vs a 500 billion dollar company enters. It's not what it's cracked up to be unless there's a play hoping for a short squeeze like yahoo.

 

[Singuy]

Cars? No one makes real money selling cars. This is an energy company.

No one makes real money selling solar and batteries either. Software is the only play here for our valuation, leveraging the energy and auto platform.

However if Tesla manage to make a break through in manufacturing and achieve 50% margins selling hardware then currently valuation is possible as well.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Interesting share price action on new entries to S&P Midcap 400:
Etsy ETSY closed in regular session Friday at -3.58% and was up AH by +5.7% (up just over 2% for the day).
Teradyne TER closed in regular session Friday at -4.06% and was up AH by +1.72% (still down over 2% for the day).
Catalent CTLT closed in regular session Friday at -2.84% and was up AH by +1.23% (still down over 1.5% for the day).

SPoon inclusion is not what it's all cracked up to be.

These were already part of the S&P400, so many funds probably already have shares of these companies. TLSA would be a completely new addition.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Seconding the opinion about energy density not being as vital as people make out. Higher density is great for making planes, or stupidly-long range cars, but the problem right now is making enough of *existing tech* tesla cars to meet demand. If tesla annunce on battery days that the batteries are exactly the same, and cost exactly the same to make, but have found a way to double annual producion, then thats flipping excellent. Any improvments to cost/density is just the cherry on top.

Maybe once Tesla are selling a million cars a year we should worry about pushing costs down or density up, but there are still a LOT of Audi/Porsche/Jaguar/BMW drivers we can sell teslas too before giving a damn what the battery cost is. Dont forget the tesla ad budget is still $0/year for crying out loud...

 

[st_lopes]

Small market cap companies will not have the monumental amount of shares needed to be purchased vs a 500 billion dollar company enters. It's not what it's cracked up to be unless there's a play hoping for a short squeeze like yahoo.

These are companies that were already on mid cap indexes. So, large portions of their float were already held by index funds, so nowhere near the same float contraction that Tesla would experience.

 

[mongo]

No one makes real money selling solar and batteries either. Software is the only play here for our valuation, leveraging the energy and auto platform.

If so, it's a good thing Tesla is working on becoming a utility so they can sell the electricity too.

 

[JRP3]

Any improvments to cost/density is just the cherry on top.

Strongly disagree. Range is still an issue, especially in the lower priced vehicles, and EV's need to completely dominate ICE's in all aspects to truly win. If there aren't significant density improvements shown at battery day or at least a clear path shown in the near future it's going to be a large disappointment. Cost/density are the key drivers of the technology, production volume is just replicating factories.

 

[JRP3]

Panasonic exec confirms Tesla Gigafactory 1 expansion and timeline

He made some interesting statements in the video, including something about a charger in Vegas which fully charges the car in 15 minutes? First I've heard of that, I question the accuracy.

 

[ggr]

VW in trouble ahead of GigaBerlin steamrolling the German market.

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1303037790020538368?s=19

Perhaps I'm too dru... tired and emotional, but because of demand, we're cancelling a best-selling model? I'm missing something.

 

[dl003]

Perhaps I'm too dru... tired and emotional, but because of demand, we're cancelling a best-selling model? I'm missing something.

My interpretation is they are cancelling the lower-end model to shore up batteries for the bigger, more profitable (less money-losing) models.

 

[CLK350]

No one makes real money selling solar and batteries either. Software is the only play here for our valuation, leveraging the energy and auto platform.

However if Tesla manage to make a break through in manufacturing and achieve 50% margins selling hardware then currently valuation is possible as well.

You are right, but partly only IMHO - if I recall correctly from reliable sources, ICE car makers make a tiny profit on car sales (1-3%, I don't remember exactly - except Ferrari et al obviously) - they make most of their profits in 1. financing, and 2. maintenance/ parts. Tesla is different, their profit margins on sales are around 20%, which is huge.(source:Sandy Munro Associates). Apple also has huge margins on hardware.

As far as Tesla as an energy company/ insurance / sotware / FSD - that's another topic of discussion.

 

[dhanson865]

Yes, such as, "Just how many gigafactories can Tesla build at one time?"

I'd say 3. Seriously 3.

Even though that answer reminds me of

 

[capster]

Cars? No one makes real money selling cars. This is an energy company.

Once long ago, when I was working in the car industry, someone told me that "When a car company is making money, they’re printing it."

I expect Tesla’s auto business to be printing money along with their energy business.

 

[dl003]

isnt China number in August supposed to be out by now? Its unsually quiet

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

isnt China number in August supposed to be out by now? Its unsually quiet

Yeah, the July numbers were out by this time in Aug. We should be getting them any hour/day now

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Once long ago, when I was working in the car industry, someone told me that "When a car company is making money, they’re printing it."

I expect Tesla’s auto business to be printing money along with their energy business.

I think the level of change we're going to see over the next ten years is dramatically underestimated. The best comparison I can think of is how Tesla batteries have impacted the Hornsdale Power Reserve. Tesla is saving them millions and millions of dollars balancing the grid, but likely won't see even 5% of that money in the long term because they literally solved most of the problems that were previously expensive to deal with.

I think we'll see something similar in the automotive world where tons of other players eventually bring cheap decent options to the market and it all flattens out. Hopefully the same thing then happens with energy and storage.

Tesla will then be handling what once cost trillions and trillions of dollars, but the solutions then become the norm and the world just becomes 10x more efficient. Hopefully we'll just be the Amazon of Energy and things will be decentralized enough that that's not an insult.

We shall see.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Yeah, the July numbers were out by this time in Aug. We should be getting them any hour/day now

maybe they’re waiting until after the long weekend, or possibly after the 2:15 Spoon feeding time tmrw ?

 

[vikings123]

I’m not quite sure what is going on but Model Y NA is showing an estimated delivery of 7-11 weeks. Very interesting.

Edit: AWD is 7-11 weeks, Performance is 2-4 weeks.

 

[ammulder]

Yes, and the big profit margin for the peaker plants makes the utilities want to keep them.

Except their rates are pretty fixed (rate changes seem pretty glacial thanks to public utility commissions), so dumping an expensive peaker plant for cheap batteries would be plain ol’ profitable.

Cars? No one makes real money selling cars. This is an energy company.

Energy? Naw, they’re an insurance company. And I have a bone to pick with that Musk guy — because they’re seriously overvalued for an insurance company!