Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

I haven't had a chance to catch up so sorry if posted before. Right hand drive id3 2 day test drive in Ireland. He prefers id3 to Tesla. Real car by real car company. Mentions much earlier that IT people (lots in Ireland) get Tesla while car people don't. Doesn't slag off Tesla and says he likes it.

My view is that id3 is more conventional and suits a lot of people / uk/eu market. If it's half decent it will sell. All half decent EVs sell.

On a separate note I spoke to a friend recently who is in a senior techy role. Because of tax, he is considering model 3. He doesn't think the company will offer one due to perception of being expensive car. And he was considering SR+ not LR or performance. He's into cars and bikes. Hopefully he'll find out more but he doesn't think it's on the list of choices and this is something that is key to company car use in Europe.

 

[JBRR]

Target Px increased to 400 USD by Credit Suisse

 

[JBRR]

*EU EXECUTIVE PROPOSES 55% CUT IN CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2030 VS 1990

 

[jw934]

for very little benefit. Income is over-rated - long-term capital appreciation is where it's at.

I agree with not selling OTM covered calls, except to satisfy finger itches. My selling of covered call IS for long term capital appreciation because I look at weekly way-OTM covered call as share dividends. E.g. 2020-10-02 760 strike are going for 4.70 each at close yesterday. So each covered call = 1 share dividend when I sell the covered call and buy 1 share. And if SP does reaches $760 or over by 10/2 then I will need to look at the reason for the sharp rise and decide if some point in the future, price will drop back to $760, or do I take the loss and buy back the call option by selling some shares. So there is a small risk is that I could end up with less shares than I originally started, which has happened twice to me this year already for a net loss of a few shares. Lessons learned via experience in my case.

 

[JBRR]

*EU EXECUTIVE PROPOSES 55% CUT IN CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2030 VS 1990

 

[jeewee3000]

OT:

Im hoping for a plaid 3. I’ve thought about this a lot. I don’t like a lot of the S. ...
I’ll test drive the plaid S. I want to like it. I might even pretend to like it. I won’t like it.

As I'm getting my first Tesla after my current vehicle, and I'm in doubt between choosing a model S, 3 or Y, could you elaborate on why you prefer the 3 over the S?

Personally I think the S looks better, but I can imagine the S could feel too 'big' (on European roads).

 

[Tslynk67]

Target Px increased to 400 USD by Credit Suisse

Previous PT was $280. Can't Dan's got much of a track record though

 

[ProfTournesol]

*EU EXECUTIVE PROPOSES 55% CUT IN CO2 EMISSIONS BY 2030 VS 1990

still to low, but it's something.

 

[Tslynk67]

As I'm getting my first Tesla after my current vehicle, and I'm in doubt between choosing a model S, 3 or Y, could you elaborate on why you prefer the 3 over the S?

Personally I think the S looks better, but I can imagine the S could feel too 'big' (on European roads).

Model S is tight in Europe, at least that's what I thought until I got a Model X - now the S, seems OK.

The Model 3 is way more fun to drive and of course has the latest tech. The Model S is more like a sports-sedan, where as the M3P drives more like a hot-hatch.

The Model S is more comfortable, and obviously has more trunk/frunk space, but the interior is a bit long-in-the-tooth now.

Oddly, the tail-lights haven't been updated and look very dated these days.

IMO it's overdue for that refresh now.

 

[Tslynk67]

still to low, but it's something.

I don't know, 55% below 1990 levels seems pretty ambitious.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Whenever I talk to my mom, she's always like "Should we sell? It's too high" and I would basically tell her to stop spreading FUD. And yet, she has called the top every single damn time.

A broken clock is always pointing the right time twice a day. She also would have sold the stock way way before the peaks.

 

[StealthP3D]

I haven't had a chance to catch up so sorry if posted before. Right hand drive id3 2 day test drive in Ireland. He prefers id3 to Tesla. Real car by real car company. Mentions much earlier that IT people (lots in Ireland) get Tesla while car people don't. Doesn't slag off Tesla and says he likes it.

My view is that id3 is more conventional and suits a lot of people / uk/eu market. If it's half decent it will sell. All half decent EVs sell.

On a separate note I spoke to a friend recently who is in a senior techy role. Because of tax, he is considering model 3. He doesn't think the company will offer one due to perception of being expensive car. And he was considering SR+ not LR or performance. He's into cars and bikes. Hopefully he'll find out more but he doesn't think it's on the list of choices and this is something that is key to company car use in Europe.

That's a cute little EV. Hopefully they get the software functional and working properly soon but it sounds like it won't be until next year! I felt like the reviewer was very biased. He kept saying things like "This is a good car. VW knows how to make a good car". But he wasn't very convincing and it was apparent he really didn't like Tesla even though he knew in his heart they were superior. He was very apologetic for the car even though it was clear it didn't live up to his expectations and hopes. He kept trying to pass off the enthusiasm most people have for Teslas as just something that only an IT person could appreciate for the technology (and that "real" car people prefer the ID.3). He said a Tesla is something that can be appreciated for it's technology but if you want something you can really get in and drive and feel comfortable driving all day the VW is the car. It made me think he had never driven a Model 3 or Model Y all day. Because they are superior driving machines. He ended up sounding silly and apologetic.

VW will sell these in relatively small numbers because the value proposition isn't really there. There are very expensive cars for what you get. I hope they will have something more competitive by 2023. But we know Tesla isn't standing still so that's yet to be determined.

 

[MD70]

I haven't had a chance to catch up so sorry if posted before. Right hand drive id3 2 day test drive in Ireland. He prefers id3 to Tesla. Real car by real car company. Mentions much earlier that IT people (lots in Ireland) get Tesla while car people don't. Doesn't slag off Tesla and says he likes it.

My view is that id3 is more conventional and suits a lot of people / uk/eu market. If it's half decent it will sell. All half decent EVs sell.

On a separate note I spoke to a friend recently who is in a senior techy role. Because of tax, he is considering model 3. He doesn't think the company will offer one due to perception of being expensive car. And he was considering SR+ not LR or performance. He's into cars and bikes. Hopefully he'll find out more but he doesn't think it's on the list of choices and this is something that is key to company car use in Europe.

Another important reason why a cheaper smaller car is imperative for Europe.

 

[StealthP3D]

The Model 3 is way more fun to drive and of course has the latest tech. The Model S is more like a sports-sedan, where as the M3P drives more like a hot-hatch.

The Model S is more comfortable, and obviously has more trunk/frunk space, but the interior is a bit long-in-the-tooth now.

Oddly, the tail-lights haven't been updated and look very dated these days.

IMO it's overdue for that refresh now.

The Model S has a more elegant look to my eye but I prefer the interior layout and ergonomics of the 3 a lot more. It's shocking how the Model S doesn't really feel any bigger from a human (ergonomic) perspective. I'm taller than average and the 3 just has better ergonomics and visibility. I haven't driven the new Raven version of the Model S yet but the Model 3 drives so superior to the pre-Raven Model S I can hardly believe it myself. The cargo capacity of the Model S is considerably bigger if you are the kind of person who is often hauling bigger items.

I would actually pay more for a Model 3 if I had to compared to a pre-Raven Model S (and I suspect the same might be true of a Raven Model S but since I haven't driven one I can't say for sure). To me the much more nimble driving dynamics, lighter feel and especially the light, airy cabin and better seats of the Model 3 just make it a better car, at least for me.

 

[charlesgres]

Thanks for that. Mine are in a tax free account, so hopefully your first point won't apply. Maybe your second point is about taxes too? Not sure I get your reason for staying in the money, but less so.

I am in the opposing camp of preferring DOTM calls.
While it is true that a DITM appreciates at about the same rate as the share (delta~=1), which sounds better than an option with a smaller delta, like e.g. 0.5 which appreciates only half a dollar per dollar the share gains, you have to also consider the option price..

Suppose the share is $100, and a DITM option say strike $50, so delta 1-ish, but the premium being $50.
If you have $100 at your disposal, then you can either buy one share or two of these $50 options. In the first case, if the share moved up $1 your gain is 1%.. but if you had the 2 options then your gain would have been $2 or 2%..

So the lower option premium gives you a higher leverage. And the higher the strike price, the lower the premium, but the higher the leverage.. Which is why I go DOTM..

 

[jeewee3000]

That's a cute little EV. Hopefully they get the software functional and working properly soon but it sounds like it won't be until next year!

Speaking of which, I just heard of a rumor (coming from German car manufacturing suppliers) that VW and Tesla might start a partnership. (I know this was recently denied by Herbert Diess, I'm just stating what I've heard).

The partnership would let VW use/license Tesla software (in cars I presume), and would Tesla use VW production technology.

At first glance I'd dismiss this as nothing but rumor since:
a) CEO of VW denied a deal in the making and;
b) Tesla has no use for VW production technology since it has or aims to have better production tech on its own.

On the other hand:
- denying a deal is not 100% proof there is no deal in the making. You have to keep competitors oblivious until the announcement;
- Tesla's main mission is to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. Helping VW with software would allow VW to scale BEV manufacturing faster, resulting in the global car fleet to electrify faster.

So I'd give this rumor a 20% chance of being true.

 

[Rohan]

I drive my 2016 MS all over the local single track roads here in the UK and its fine size wise. Especially since every other car is a much larger 4x4. I guess if I still lived in the City then a smaller car would be better, if only for parking. In other news, loving the price action. I missed out on low 500 for my third tranche of TSLA. I did buy more at 350 ish post split as I couldn't wait any longer and the only way is clearly up for the short, medium and long term. HODL

 

[WarpedOne]

Helping VW with software

SW just doesn't work this way.
Tesla's trick is not the software, it is vertical integration. Not just the car but the whole corporate.
There is nothing Tesla can help VW with, they are incompatible.

 

[Destination]

SW just doesn't work this way.
Tesla's trick is not the software, it is vertical integration. Not just the car but the whole corporate.
There is nothing Tesla can help VW with, they are incompatible.

I feel this has been a theme (VW and Tesla software) - below is one example from 2019 I could find.

While maybe unlikely, it is possible this has been going on for awhile.

Volkswagen not interested in buying Tesla stake

I don’t have the time right now (That article pared down the story) but I distinctly recall him mentioning software in a quote.

 

[UkNorthampton]

That's a cute little EV. Hopefully they get the software functional and working properly soon but it sounds like it won't be until next year! I felt like the reviewer was very biased. He kept saying things like "This is a good car. VW knows how to make a good car". But he wasn't very convincing and it was apparent he really didn't like Tesla even though he knew in his heart they were superior. He was very apologetic for the car even though it was clear it didn't live up to his expectations and hopes. He kept trying to pass off the enthusiasm most people have for Teslas as just something that only an IT person could appreciate for the technology (and that "real" car people prefer the ID.3). He said a Tesla is something that can be appreciated for it's technology but if you want something you can really get in and drive and feel comfortable driving all day the VW is the car. It made me think he had never driven a Model 3 or Model Y all day. Because they are superior driving machines. He ended up sounding silly and apologetic.

VW will sell these in relatively small numbers because the value proposition isn't really there. There are very expensive cars for what you get. I hope they will have something more competitive by 2023. But we know Tesla isn't standing still so that's yet to be determined.

I generally agree with you.

A few observations:-

1) While it isn't a big car, ID3 is bigger in length and width compared to a VW Golf. As EV, it's MUCH bigger inside.
2) Vast majority of European car sales are Golf class size or below (8/10 top sellers), with SUVs being common (but not USA sized SUVs)
3) He's not a Tesla fan boy and he does seem to be a VW Group fan boy. I didn't get who his sponsor is, but perhaps it's a dealer network or similar that doesn't want to promote Tesla.
4) I don't know why, but so many people seem vaguely against Tesla. I don't know if it's unfamiliarity, FUD, ignorance.
5) Non-Tesla chargers / car charging in UK is slow, expensive and not dependable (2 chargers, queue or broken).
6) Tesla is slowly getting traction in "Company Cars" in UK. Company cars used to be a massive thing and then tax killed it. Many younger accountants don't know how to deal with them! Instead people got extra pay (say £3-6000/yr) which was then taxed (25-40% + 10% National Insurance plus Employers paid another 13% roughly). Now, with tax incentives in UK, you give up the £500 a month gross (nearer £200-250 per month after tax and as a bonus the employer saves on tax too) and get a car/charger/insurance paid for by company. For employees, it also lowers pay, so for some people they can get child benefit as well. When you spreadsheet it - it works out well. MY PREDICTION: after a couple of years of this, most companies will insist on providing electric company cars. People who had BMW 3 / Merc / Audi will switch to Teslas in large numbers. VW will be a popular choice for lots of reasons, especially if cheaper but long trips will be a hassle compared to Tesla.